# When is SCOTUS due to rule on the latest gay marriage issue? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [June 6, 2015, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782 "2015-06-06T14:23:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2015, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/61 "2015-06-25T15:24:54Z")
So now the Court has five opinions left to release for this term, including SSM. Expect one or more tomorrow, Friday June 26. And the rest on Monday June 29. **What’s left?** Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission Can a state pass authority to re-draw Congressional district lines to a non-partisan authority or must the legislature do it? And does the state Legislature have authority to bring a challenge to the constitutionality of the redistricting commission? Likely to be authored by Kennedy or Ginsburg based upon remaining workload. My guess is Kennedy. He still needs 2 more to balance the workload over the entire term and I already think he has the SSM case so this could be his other one. Utility Air Regulatory Group v. Environmental Protection Agency Was it unreasonable for the Environmental Protection Agency to refuse to consider costs in determining whether it is appropriate to regulate hazardous air pollutants emitted by electric utilities. Likely to be authored by Scalia based upon remaining workload. He is the only Justice who has not yet written an opinion for the March sitting. Johnson v. United States Is mere possession of a sawed-off shotgun to be treated as a violent felony under the Armed Career Criminal Act? And is a portion of the Armed Career Criminal Act unconstitutionally vague? From the April sitting, so not as certain who will author it. Best bet is on Scalia, Kennedy, or Ginsburg authoring the majority opinion. My guess is Ginsburg gets this one. Glossip v. Gross A constitutional challenge to new drug protocols for lethal injection. Also from the April sitting. Again smart money is on Scalia, Kennedy, or Ginsburg writing the opinion. My guess is Scalia get this one. And of course Obergefell v Hodges, the SSM case, as discussed above. I’ve already stated that I think Kennedy writes the majority here. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2015, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/62 "2015-06-25T15:32:34Z")
Great posts **Iggy**. Kennedy wrote the Fair Housing Act one that was released this morning. Was that a different seating? ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2015, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/63 "2015-06-25T15:44:31Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Great posts **Iggy**. Kennedy wrote the Fair Housing Act one that was released this morning. Was that a different seating? Fair housing was from the February term ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2015, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/64 "2015-06-25T15:48:11Z")
Yes, my cases remaining totals per Justice account for Kennedy writing the Texas Housing case. ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2015, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/65 "2015-06-25T15:48:32Z")
My issue (with expecting a certain justice to write an opinion based on the term they haven’t written for yet) is that it’s entirely possible that particular justice was in the minority on most of those cases, and there just aren’t any opinions for them to write. If Scalia is in the minority on all the remaining cases, he’s not writing any opinions. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2015, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/66 "2015-06-25T16:51:14Z")
> [@yellowjacketcoder](#): > > My issue (with expecting a certain justice to write an opinion based on the term they haven’t written for yet) is that it’s entirely possible that particular justice was in the minority on most of those cases, and there just aren’t any opinions for them to write. If Scalia is in the minority on all the remaining cases, he’s not writing any opinions. I had thought about the same question. Over on SCOTUSblog they pointed out that so many of the more mundane opinions are near unanimous that is is almost unimaginable that a Justice wouldn’t be in the majority in at least one case per monthly sitting. So if, for example, Scalia is not writing the Utility Air case, then why did he not write at least one of the other opinions from the March sitting in which he was in the majority? After all there were three unanimous cases that sitting and he was in the 6-3 majority in Kimble v. Marvel Enterprises, Inc. Could Scalia have resisted the Spider-man case if he didn’t have another to write? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2015, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/67 "2015-06-25T21:51:00Z")
[Here’s an interesting reason to expect it tomorrow](http://abovethelaw.com/2015/06/why-the-same-sex-marriage-decision-will-likely-come-out-tomorrow/): > [@](#): > > [A]n Obergefell decision on Friday would coincide w/anniversary of Lawrence [v. Texas] (6/26/03) & [United States v.] Windsor (6/26/13). Coincidence? Works for me. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2015, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/68 "2015-06-25T22:01:01Z")
they only take 70 cases over 9 months/36 weeks which means about 2 per week. So it seems they do wait until the last minute on a bunch of cases. ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2015, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/69 "2015-06-25T22:39:35Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > [Here’s an interesting reason to expect it tomorrow](http://abovethelaw.com/2015/06/why-the-same-sex-marriage-decision-will-likely-come-out-tomorrow/): > > Works for me. Someone posted the same reasoning on SCOTUSblog, and the bloggers there didn’t think much of it. Apparently SCOTUS doesn’t care much for historic dates. That doesn’t mean it’s NOT coming out tomorrow, just that reading the tea leaves is only marginally accurate. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/70 "2015-06-26T01:02:04Z")
It’s tea leaves, sure, but it couldn’t have been a coincidence that the Massachusetts Supreme Court issued \*Goodridge \*on the 50th anniversary of _Brown_. Betcha Mama Kennedy never thought her little boy would grow up to be the Gay Rights Justice. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/71 "2015-06-26T13:27:25Z")
That’s a bit much. He’s the Gay Rights Moderator. He could just have sided with the liberal wing on prior decisions and found that sexual orientation was the sort of classification that required strict or elevated scrutiny, but instead we’ve been through a 20-year dog and pony show of “rational basis with bite.” ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/72 "2015-06-26T13:30:09Z")
I would call it 20 years of "No matther whether th’ constitution follows h’ flag or not[, th’ Supreme Coort follows th’ election returns”](http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/the_supreme_court_follows_the_election_returns_judges_follow_the_election_r). But his name is on the key decisions. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/73 "2015-06-26T14:02:48Z")
5-4 for marriage equity! ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/74 "2015-06-26T14:05:08Z")
Kennedy wrote the opinion. All four of the conservatives wrote their own dissent. ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/75 "2015-06-26T14:06:34Z")
Amen! Congratulations to all of us for this great victory! ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/76 "2015-06-26T14:06:35Z")
The opinion: [http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/14pdf/14-556\_3204.pdf](http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/14pdf/14-556_3204.pdf) ---
**Author:** ![Drunky\_Smurf](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drunky_smurf/32/449_2.png) [@Drunky\_Smurf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drunky_Smurf)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/77 "2015-06-26T14:06:41Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > 5-4 for marriage equity! Yep, I just heard it on the radio. Woo-hoo! :rainbow smiley: ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/78 "2015-06-26T14:07:53Z")
Finally! I am so happy. ---
**Author:** ![kayT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayt/32/3633_2.png) [@kayT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayT)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/79 "2015-06-26T14:51:55Z")
Wonderful news this morning. It seemed clear that we could not go on the way we were with some states having SSM and some not, but I long ago stopped expecting that the government would do the right thing. Today, at least, five justices did the right thing. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782/80 "2015-06-26T14:53:26Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > He’s the Gay Rights Moderator. … and so he remains. But I’ll take it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-is-scotus-due-to-rule-on-the-latest-gay-marriage-issue/721782.md?page=5)