# When ISIS is defeated, then what? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 22, 2015, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267 "2015-11-22T03:45:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/1 "2015-11-22T03:45:17Z")
China has just announced it too is joining the war against ISIS: > **[China declares war on ISIS after terrorists 'execute Chinese hostage'](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/china-declares-war-isis-after-6862200)** > > President Xi Jinping has promised to fight terrorist activity after deaths of national Fan Jinghui and European Ole Johan Grimsgaard-Ofstad So we have a rare instance when the five permanent members of the UN security council agree unanimously on something. This article makes clear that ISIS is not like Al Qaeda and cannot become an underground movement, the Caliphate must openly hold territory. > **[What ISIS Really Wants](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/)** > > The Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths. It is a religious group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key agent of the coming apocalypse. Here’s what that means for its strategy—and for how to stop it. One way or another they’re going to lose ground, to the Kurds, Assads’s forces with Russian help and whatever aerial + spec ops help the US provides. My prediction is that within 12 months ISIS will no longer hold any territory. Then what? Go back to the old borders and hope for the best? We got the big 5 in agreement here so presumably the UN could redraw the relevant international boundaries as they see fit. Should they chuck out Sykes-Picot and start again? What else could be done to repeat yet another round of this mess five years later? ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/2 "2015-11-22T04:14:54Z")
You really love that article, huh? It’s an interesting take, but it’s far from definitive and there have been a lot of alternative perspectives on it. Just like Al Queda, ISIS will evolve, develop a new marketing pitch, and probably pick a new brand name to go with it. We’ll do what we’ve been doing and try to keep some kind of order in the power vaccuum, at enormous expense in both money and lives. Terrorists will keep doing their terrorist thing. Eventually, something will change, in some way we can’t even begin to conceive of. And just like Communism rose and fell, so will this round of baddies, and some other baddies will take on the role. There’s just no telling. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/3 "2015-11-22T04:32:09Z")
Some other terrorist groups will certainly spring up, but I’m specifically asking in this thread what should be done with the territory that ISIS currently holds that could improve the situation long term? ---
**Author:** ![Foggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foggy/32/1082_2.png) [@Foggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Foggy)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/4 "2015-11-22T05:08:54Z")
The territory goes back to it’s owner. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/5 "2015-11-22T05:16:47Z")
> [@Foggy](#): > > The territory goes back to it’s owner. Which is? The kurds? An unstable Iraq that can’t protect its own borders? The Assad government which the US has been trying to topple for the last three years? Is that really the best answer? ---
**Author:** ![TheSeaOtter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ed655f/32.png) [@TheSeaOtter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheSeaOtter)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/6 "2015-11-22T05:30:36Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Which is? The kurds? An unstable Iraq that can’t protect its own borders? The Assad government which the US has been trying to topple for the last three years? Is that really the best answer? The governments of Iraq and Syria get their territory back. I dunno about the best answer, but considering you need a solution that Russia, the US, and China can all agree on, that’s probably as good as it’s going to get. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/7 "2015-11-22T06:05:35Z")
> [@TheSeaOtter](#): > > The governments of Iraq and Syria get their territory back. I dunno about the best answer, but considering you need a solution that Russia, the US, and China can all agree on, that’s probably as good as it’s going to get. I’d be willing to bet money that’s not going to happen. The only question in my mind is whether the carving up of new international boundaries happens by Iran Russia and Saudia Arabia alone or if the west gets involved and tries to influence the outcome. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/8 "2015-11-22T07:18:45Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > I’d be willing to bet money that’s not going to happen. How much would you like to bet? ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 8:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/9 "2015-11-22T08:10:38Z")
The organisation of ISIL must openly hold territory, so when it loses, it ceases to exist. The problem is the members of ISIL, who do not vanish in a puff of logic if ISIL collapses. ISIL is still a group of tens of thousands of horrible people who are violently in favour of slavery and genocide, so the more of them die while they’re out in the open, the less trouble they can cause later. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/10 "2015-11-22T08:37:50Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > You really love that article, huh? It’s an interesting take, but it’s far from definitive and there have been a lot of alternative perspectives on it. No, it’s not. It’s a bigoted one. At first you think they may have a point in calling ISIS Islamic. They are using it to mean that their beliefs are based on Islam. So you think they are just using the term in a different way. But throughout the peace they pepper it with the arguments that the Islamophobes use. They have an argument that ISIS’s view is the unperverted, unchanged meaning of what Islam is. So, as such, nothing they say has any value, as they come to the situation from a bigoted perspective. We don’t know that anything that article says is accurate. We have no reason to trust it. I suspect that, while ISIS right now needs territory, it won’t be defeated if it loses territory. It might dishearten those who thought they were going to cause the Aapocalypse, but the true believers will just think it wasn’t the right time, just like every other apocolyptic cult does. You just move it back. It might be an opportunity to redivide things up along actual national and cultural lines, but that’s got nothing to do with what ISIS does or doesn’t do. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 10:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/11 "2015-11-22T10:15:09Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > No, it’s not. It’s a bigoted one. At first you think they may have a point in calling ISIS Islamic. They are using it to mean that their beliefs are based on Islam. So you think they are just using the term in a different way. But throughout the peace they pepper it with the arguments that the Islamophobes use. They have an argument that ISIS’s view is the unperverted, unchanged meaning of what Islam is. I just read the Atlantic’s article and I didn’t get that at all. It uses the pronouncements and broadcasts of ISIS to clarify what it is that drives them. Certainly, from the horses mouth they seek to create a society that runs in line with a strict, literal interpretation of the earliest writings. They are, without doubt, following “Islam” as they see it. Which quotes from the article do you think are problematic? ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/12 "2015-11-22T12:41:18Z")
Well if that article was problematic heres another one by a journalist who read all the issues of ISIS official publication Dabiq (in English) and comes to a lot of the same conclusions. In Particular the Islamic State goes to a lot of trouble to justify their position based on early writings and they certainly have Islamic scholars amongst them. Yes its from Cracked but its a good read. > **[7 Things I Learned Reading Every Issue Of ISIS's Magazine](https://www.cracked.com/blog/isis-wants-us-to-invade-7-facts-revealed-by-their-magazine)** > > ISIS has a magazine. That is not a joke. An actual glossy, full-color magazine called Dabiq, complete with feature articles and photo spreads. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/13 "2015-11-22T14:13:05Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > I’d be willing to bet money that’s not going to happen. The only question in my mind is whether the carving up of new international boundaries happens by Iran Russia and Saudia Arabia alone or if the west gets involved and tries to influence the outcome. Why would a new country between Syria and Iraq solve anything? It’s a silly idea, and nobody is going to take it seriously. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/14 "2015-11-22T14:26:40Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Why would a new country between Syria and Iraq solve anything? It’s a silly idea, and nobody is going to take it seriously. Quite, who’s going to manage it? A middle eastern country that will be subject to insurgency by ISIS in the same way as now? A coalition of western nations that will raise cries of “imperialism” ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/15 "2015-11-22T14:39:36Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > China has just announced it too is joining the war against ISIS: > [http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/china-declares-war-isis-after-6862200](http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/china-declares-war-isis-after-6862200) > > So we have a rare instance when the five permanent members of the UN security council agree unanimously on something. This article makes clear that ISIS is not like Al Qaeda and cannot become an underground movement, the Caliphate must openly hold territory. > [What ISIS Really Wants - The Atlantic](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/) > > One way or another they’re going to lose ground, to the Kurds, Assads’s forces with Russian help and whatever aerial + spec ops help the US provides. My prediction is that within 12 months ISIS will no longer hold any territory. > > Then what? Go back to the old borders and hope for the best? We got the big 5 in agreement here so presumably the UN could redraw the relevant international boundaries as they see fit. Should they chuck out Sykes-Picot and start again? What else could be done to repeat yet another round of this mess five years later? > **[Isis was quick to understand a truth the West must now confront](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-in-a-borderless-world-the-days-when-we-could-fight-foreign-wars-and-be-safe-at-home-may-be-long-gone-a6741146.html)** > > Isis was quick to understand a truth the West must now confront: that the national borders imposed by colonial powers 100 years go are becoming meaningless, says Robert Fisk > [@](#): > > Early in 2014, Isis released one of its first videos. Largely unseen in Europe… a hand-held camera showed a bulldozer pushing down a rampart of sand that had marked the border between Iraq and Syria… the camera panned down to a handwritten poster lying in the sand. “End of Sykes-Picot”, it said. > > The same night that I saw the early Isis video, I happened to be visiting the Lebanese Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt. “The end of Sykes-Picot!” he roared at me. “Rubbish,” I snorted. But of course, I was wrong and Jumblatt was right. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/18 "2015-11-22T15:34:13Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Why would a new country between Syria and Iraq solve anything? It’s a silly idea, and nobody is going to take it seriously. What’s silly? Short of actually achieving it, the Kurds have as much basis as any country ever has had. A full-fledged Kurdistan won’t solve all the region’s problems, but it will handle its own better than the pre-Daesh Syria and Iraq did. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/19 "2015-11-22T15:58:23Z")
The issue of Kurdistan really only has a vague relation to ISIL. Kurds are doing a respectable job of defending and taking back territory no matter whether the Kurish areas are in Syria, Iraq, or any other successor country. What I take the OP is on about is a silly idea that since imperially-drawn maps are unjust, imperial countries should redraw the maps to carve out something new out of the vast spaces in eastern Syria and western Iraq. That’s silly, pointless, and totally lacking in self-awareness of the irony of the suggestion. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/20 "2015-11-22T16:12:49Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > The issue of Kurdistan really only has a vague relation to ISIL. Kurds are doing a respectable job of defending and taking back territory no matter whether the Kurish areas are in Syria, Iraq, or any other successor country. > > What I take the OP is on about is a silly idea that since imperially-drawn maps are unjust, imperial countries should redraw the maps to carve out something new out of the vast spaces in eastern Syria and western Iraq. That’s silly, pointless, and totally lacking in self-awareness of the irony of the suggestion. OK, I see. I agree that the drawing of the new borders should be done principally by those who will be living within and on each side of them, with at most facilitation from outside powers. What I’m arguing _against_ is the suggestions (such as **Foggy** and **TheSeaOtter** above) that outside powers force the re-constitution of the broken old imperial map. What the hell for? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/21 "2015-11-22T16:21:41Z")
The problem with defeating Da-esh is that it’s simply one manifestation of the Jihadist/Islamist movement in the MENA. Kill every current “member” of Da-esh, and a new group takes it place. The only way to get rid of it permanently is to get rid of the conditions that create it in the first place. How the hell you do that is beyond me. The only proven successful way to minimize it is to have rule by strongmen that create relative stability through authoritarianism. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2015, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/22 "2015-11-22T16:30:18Z")
Conversely, I think strongmen _are_ part of the conditions that create the violent, virulent strains of Islamism. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267.md?page=2)