# When ISIS is defeated, then what? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 22, 2015, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267 "2015-11-22T03:45:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/43 "2015-11-23T12:03:51Z")
So what? Iraq doesn’t want to be partitioned, Assad doesn’t want partition, and I doubt Assad’s successor will either. You haven’t identified any power base that wants a landlocked, sparsely populated Anbar and Syrian Deserts. You haven’t explained why a new country would help anything. Just saying “it’s already de facto!” isn’t a reason. It’s utterly meaningless. The issue of Kurdistan is totally separate from the civil war and ISIL. So make a case. Any case. I guarantee you it will be rediculous. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/44 "2015-11-23T15:50:57Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > So what? Iraq doesn’t want to be partitioned, Assad doesn’t want partition, and I doubt Assad’s successor will either. Too bad, they already have been. Russia has no interest in helping Syria get their old borders back, they only care about protecting their interests in Syria, eg their naval base and making sure a government friendly to them keeps control of the core of Syria. Similar situation in Iraq. Neither country is going to gain control of their old borders on their own and no one is going to help them. The elephant in the room is Kurdistan, and sorry it is absolutely linked to ISIS. Any long term solution to ISIS will involve the Kurds in one way or another. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/45 "2015-11-23T20:21:32Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > The issue of Kurdistan is totally separate from the civil war and ISIL. How could it be separated? The Kurds have been the most effective force on the ground opposing Daesh. The larger war has given them the greatest opportunity yet to further establish their country as an independent power. There can’t possibly be any peace settlement without strong Kurdish representation at the table. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/46 "2015-11-23T21:05:53Z")
The only way there could be a partition of Syria and Iraq is if ISIS won the war, and eventually Syria and Iraq agree to the new borders, and cede de jure what is already reality. Except that will never happen, will it? ISIS won’t accept a peace treaty that grants them their current territory in return for ending the war, they don’t want a small patch of eastern Syria and Western Iraq, they want an Islamic Caliphate. And there are no outside powers interested in a peace that includes ISIS being granted legitimacy. It’s not like Russia or China is going to support ISIS as a client state and support their existence long enough that eventually everyone gets tired of pretending the ISIS isn’t a real state and recognizes them. That’s a project of decades, and Russia supports Assad, not ISIS, and China doesn’t support anyone in the region and wouldn’t be in favor of random border changes imposed by foreign governments anyway. And of course the US/UK/France don’t support ISIS either, even if we don’t support Assad we’d rather see Assad control western Syria than a de facto or de jure ISIS state. Or are we pretending that an independent Sunnistan will emerge? From the “moderate rebels”? The moderate rebels are a myth that we believe because we want to believe. And we’re going to convince Iraq to give up control over the Sunni areas, and their going to accept it? For what reason? Yes, Kurdistan in Syria will probably get more de facto autonomy. But for Syrian Kurdistan to be officially annexed into Iraqi Kurdistan would require official independence for Iraqi Kurdistan. Which can’t happen because Iran, Turkey, and our client Iraq would scream. The Iraqi Kurds are willing to accept de facto autonomy and favored US client status which they’ve had since the first Gulf War in return for not upsetting the applecart and pushing for full independence. So no official Kurdistan can possibly result from the war, no annexation of Sunnistan by either Syria or Iraq or a new entity to be named later is possible. So what border changes will occur? None. Who knows who will rule Syria in 2025, or Iraq in 2025, or Kurdistan in 2025, but the borders will be the same in 2025, no matter what groups are holding territories in the region where the national authorities in Syria or Iraq cannot touch. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/47 "2015-11-23T21:15:05Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Russia has no interest in helping Syria get their old borders back, they only care about protecting their interests in Syria, eg their naval base and making sure a government friendly to them keeps control of the core of Syria. Similar situation in Iraq. Neither country is going to gain control of their old borders on their own and no one is going to help them. I think you’re assuming facts not in evidence. I’m betting otherwise. > [@Peremensoe](#): > > How could it be separated? The Kurds have been the most effective force on the ground opposing Daesh. The larger war has given them the greatest opportunity yet to further establish their country as an independent power. There can’t possibly be any peace settlement without strong Kurdish representation at the table. Strong representation? Sure. Independence? Maybe, in this chaos anything is possible. But unlikely. Because Iraqi Kudistan wants some things ( i.e. Mosul and the Kirkuk oil fields ) the central government of Iraq is unwilling to give. And Iran is a bigger elephant than the peshmerga. The U.S. is a much bigger elephant still, but going to the mats for the Kurds if they were to unilaterally secede from a country they are technically subject to? I’m not that big of a gambler. ETA: Or what **Lemur866** just said. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/48 "2015-11-23T22:01:44Z")
I’d like to note that autonomous areas are pretty common globally. The US even has some. It’s not usually a precursor to independence. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/49 "2015-11-23T22:26:12Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > I’d like to note that autonomous areas are pretty common globally. The US even has some. It’s not usually a precursor to independence. Right, but people were speaking of territory being “given back” to Damascus and Baghdad, as if when the Assad/IS war is over, central authority will be reasserted throughout each country’s old borders. That’s not going to happen; Kurdish gains are not going to be undone, except possibly with Kurdish assent and in exchange for other concrete steps. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2015, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/50 "2015-11-23T23:38:34Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > Right, but people were speaking of territory being “given back” to Damascus and Baghdad, as if when the Assad/IS war is over, central authority will be reasserted throughout each country’s old borders. Central authority, perhaps not. We may have a new patchwork of autonomous enclaves, sanctioned or not. Legal borders, though - I expect they will be more or less identical. > [@](#): > > That’s not going to happen; Kurdish gains are not going to be undone, except possibly with Kurdish assent and in exchange for other concrete steps. I am little less sanguine than you in Syria’s case. I think the locals could very well end up ground down. Iraqi Kurdistan may come out “ahead”\* only on technicalities - the tipping point is whether _after_ Daesh is crushed whether both sides are willing to throw down for Mosul and/or the oil fields. Best guess is some compromise is worked out. But independence probably won’t be it. \*Nobody is coming out of this sort of war happy in this generation. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/51 "2015-11-24T00:25:58Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > This article makes clear that ISIS is not like Al Qaeda and cannot become an underground movement, the Caliphate must openly hold territory. > [What ISIS Really Wants - The Atlantic](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/) Just wait, they’ll find a doctrinal loophole. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/52 "2015-11-24T00:36:24Z")
I’m going to assume another sunni insurgency group will arise out of the ashes. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/53 "2015-11-24T01:06:48Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > How could it be separated? The Kurds have been the most effective force on the ground opposing Daesh. The larger war has given them the greatest opportunity yet to further establish their country as an independent power. There can’t possibly be any peace settlement without strong Kurdish representation at the table. So you think Western nations are going to say, “Fuck you, NATO ally!” and promote the establishment of a Kurdish state over Turkey’s objections? Not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/54 "2015-11-24T02:34:57Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > So you think Western nations are going to say, “Fuck you, NATO ally!” and promote the establishment of a Kurdish state over Turkey’s objections? > > Not going to happen. One way it could happen is good old bribery. The EU could make acceptance of Kurdistan a condition for turkeys admittance into the EU. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/55 "2015-11-24T02:37:53Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > One way it could happen is good old bribery. The EU could make acceptance of Kurdistan a condition for turkeys admittance into the EU. Turkey would tell them to take their EU and shove it. EU status would be nice, but Kurdistan is an existential threat. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/56 "2015-11-24T03:40:05Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > One way it could happen is good old bribery. The EU could make acceptance of Kurdistan a condition for turkeys admittance into the EU. I don’t think the Turks are naive enough to buy that pig in a poke. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/57 "2015-11-24T05:03:05Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > Turkey would tell them to take their EU and shove it. EU status would be nice, but Kurdistan is an existential threat. Kurdistan would not be any existential threat to NATO member Turkey. But frankly Turkey can pound sand. Its pretty well established they’ve been not so subtly supporting ISIS all along. See here: > **[Senior Western official: Links between Turkey and ISIS are now 'undeniable'](https://www.businessinsider.com/links-between-turkey-and-isis-are-now-undeniable-2015-7)** > > A US-led raid in May uncovered evidence of financial dealings between Turkey and ISIS. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 8:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/58 "2015-11-24T08:16:20Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Kurdistan would not be any existential threat to NATO member Turkey. The Confederacy wasn’t an existential threat to the United States, but the North sure wasn’t happy about it. Or how about Russia and Chechnya? Talk about overreacting. > [@](#): > > But frankly Turkey can pound sand. Its pretty well established they’ve been not so subtly supporting ISIS all along. See here: > [Links Between Turkey and ISIS Are Now 'Undeniable' - Business Insider](http://www.businessinsider.com/links-between-turkey-and-isis-are-now-undeniable-2015-7) They’re still America’s best pals, just like the Saudis. Why should Turkey not support ISIS, when Americans love the Kurds, even though they support terrorist groups like the PKK? It’s the circle of life. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2015, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/59 "2015-11-25T00:51:43Z")
> [@marshmallow](#): > > when Americans love the Kurds, even though they support terrorist groups like the PKK? It’s the circle of life. The Kurds are an ethnic group of 30 million people, so saying “the kurds support the PKK” is exactly equivalent to saying “arabs support ISIS”. Both are true statements for some small fraction of the total percentage of their respective populations. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2015, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/60 "2015-11-25T03:05:44Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > One way it could happen is good old bribery. The EU could make acceptance of Kurdistan a condition for turkeys admittance into the EU. There are enough problems with EU democracy without Turkey joining. It won’t work. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2015, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/61 "2015-11-25T03:10:27Z")
The Kurds, at least as far as the PKK and some other orgs go, are not capitalist. Probably why nobody cares about them. All remnants of socialism in the middle east are being destroyed. Wouldn’t say Syria was like Sweden, but weren’t all the Ba’ath parties at least notionally socialist ? ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2015, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267/62 "2015-11-25T05:32:57Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > The Kurds, at least as far as the PKK and some other orgs go, are not capitalist. Again the PKK does not represent all of the Kurds. Saying the 30 million Kurds are not capitalist is plain ignorant. Autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan is a parliamentary democracy and definitely capitalist. > **[Iraqi Kurdistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan)** > > Ancient > Medieval > Modern [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-isis-is-defeated-then-what/738267.md?page=4)