# When the first inoculations for Covid-19 to cure or prevent the virus in 2021 will you be first? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 19, 2020, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850 "2020-03-19T23:36:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850/21 "2020-03-21T13:30:51Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > According to the caption, that is a Phase 1 trial, which means they don’t even care if it works, or expect it to; it’s a rudimentary safety test. So that lady can’t even expect to get immunity from this test. > > I mean, it’s progress. They’re past the lab stage, at least. Quite some distance away though. Don’t bother volunteering until Phase 3. They’re not past the lab stage. They just skipped it. This went into P1 without a drop of animal data to suggest that this works. Phase 1 drugs are inherently risky, but they almost always have some efficacy data. There was been no preclinical derisking in this case. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850/22 "2020-03-21T14:16:35Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > They’re not past the lab stage. They just skipped it. This went into P1 without a drop of animal data to suggest that this works. Phase 1 drugs are inherently risky, but they almost always have some efficacy data. There was been no preclinical derisking in this case. I am asking because I genuinely don’t know and am curious… how do you test the efficacy of a vaccine on a virus that only affects humans using animal testing? ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850/23 "2020-03-21T16:44:00Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > I’m an immunologist. I work in this field. My answer to this question is “it depends”. Any vaccine that is available within the next 12-18 months is unlikely to have a sufficient amount of data around it that I would take it. This is the advice I will follow. “Early adopter” and “test rat” are not my middle names. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850/24 "2020-03-21T17:04:23Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > I am asking because I genuinely don’t know and am curious… how do you test the efficacy of a vaccine on a virus that only affects humans using animal testing? Animal testing can prove some elements of safety and efficacy, but of course that’s why you move on to clinical trials in humans. An obvious difficult in vaccine testing is that you can’t actually determine its true effectiveness until a substantial number of subjects have been given time to be exposed and to see what their rates of infection are (well, once we get into Phase II and III). With these tests they’ll be measuring antibodies, of course, to estimate efficacy. But it’ll be an estimate, and hell, they’ll be running the numbers for DECADES in the postmarketing study. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850/25 "2020-03-21T18:18:13Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Your chances of survival from the data so far for over 80s are 85%. Sure that’s absolutely not a percentage you should be satisfied with but it’s not as gloomy as you suggest. And if you don’t have particular underlying health conditions it’ll be into the mid/high 90s. You’ve apparently seen separate percentages for being of given ages without other health problems, and for being in particular age groups with particular health problems. Could you link to that information? I’ve seen lots of statistics giving percentage of complications by age, by heart condition, by diabetes, and so on. But I haven’t seen anything clarifying to what extent the risk of age is due to the greater prevalence in older people of other health conditions; or what the percentages are for people who have multiple risks: i.e., if you’re in your late 60’s with a heart condition and controlled diabetes, what’s the percentage risk for that combination? I presume one doesn’t just add up the separate percentages. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850/26 "2020-03-21T18:20:35Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > I am asking because I genuinely don’t know and am curious… how do you test the efficacy of a vaccine on a virus that only affects humans using animal testing? Find an animal that is affected is easiest way. There is a humanized mouse model, where lung tissue from humans can be implanted to assess damage. Could be adapted here. Unfortunately, it requires fetal tissue which the Trump administration banned federal research on. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850/27 "2020-03-22T13:29:09Z")
When a tested and known-effective vaccine becomes available, there will be only a limited supply at first, such that not everyone will be able to get it right away. I expect that public health organizations will issue guidelines on who should be prioritized for vaccination, and I have no reason to expect that I would be on that list (or at least, I shouldn’t be). If I get vaccinated early, it would be as part of the experimentation phase. For that, they start with healthy volunteers, to see if they stay healthy (as opposed to suffering significant side effects). I might be willing to volunteer for such an experimental program, with appropriate compensation and under appropriate medical supervision. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850/28 "2020-03-22T13:29:49Z")
When a tested and known-effective vaccine becomes available, there will be only a limited supply at first, such that not everyone will be able to get it right away. I expect that public health organizations will issue guidelines on who should be prioritized for vaccination, and I have no reason to expect that I would be on that list (or at least, I shouldn’t be). If I get vaccinated early, it would be as part of the experimentation phase. For that, they start with healthy volunteers, to see if they stay healthy (as opposed to suffering significant side effects). I might be willing to volunteer for such an experimental program, with appropriate compensation and under appropriate medical supervision. ---
**Author:** ![Ike\_Witt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ike_witt/32/283_2.png) [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850/29 "2020-03-22T14:10:18Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > I am asking because I genuinely don’t know and am curious… how do you test the efficacy of a vaccine on a virus that only affects humans using animal testing? [Humanized mice](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6061174/). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-first-inoculations-for-covid-19-to-cure-or-prevent-the-virus-in-2021-will-you-be-first/849850.md?page=1)