# When the music stops in 2012, have Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton switched chairs? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 6, 2010, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271 "2010-10-06T16:59:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Aswan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c68b51/32.png) [@Aswan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aswan)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/1 "2010-10-06T16:59:10Z")
I am seeing more and more discussion of the potential in 2012 for putting Hillary Clinton in the number two spot with Obama and moving Joe Biden to Secretary of State. The argument seems to be that Clinton would bring all of the “Hillary Democrats” back onboard and that Joe would not sufficiently energize the base. (One of the reasons cited for Bush 41’s failure was keeping Quail.) Supposedly having headed up the Foreign Relations Committee in the Senate, Joe would be excellent in the position. The only problem is that lots of VP’s since WWII have subsequently found their way into the Oval Office and Joe might be thinking about that himself. I mean, he’s already run, what, twice on his own. I think it makes good political sense. But would Joe? Or Obama? (I think Hillary doesn’t serve another term as SecDef in any case.) :smack: Not SecDef. Thinking too slowly, typing too fast. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/2 "2010-10-06T17:01:25Z")
No. It’s a stupid rumor about a stupid idea. Elect me. I picked the wrong people for the wrong jobs last time, but I fixed it! ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/3 "2010-10-06T17:10:27Z")
If you read these stories you’ll see the idea comes from Bob Woodward. It’s a poorly supported claim and I think he’s just using it to get more publicity for his new book. His exact words were “Some of Hillary Clinton’s advisers see it as a real possibility in 2012.” There’s a lot of weasel wording in there. _Some_ of her _advisers_ think it’s _possible_. It’s not going to happen. And Obama’s people have already come out to say it’s absolutely not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/4 "2010-10-06T17:31:18Z")
The only way Biden isn’t the VP nominee in 2012 is if he retires from politics. And the only way he’ll do that is if forced to by his health, or if there’s some major scandal. Biden isn’t going to be running for president in 2016, sure. And the Vice Presidency is a good position to launch your presidential campaign. Except it isn’t Obama’s job to pick the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee in 2012. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/5 "2010-10-06T17:45:56Z")
I can imagine Hillary getting the Veep job if and only if Biden has some major health crisis. No other formula comes to mind that wouldn’t create more problems. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/6 "2010-10-06T18:03:13Z")
I have always thought it would be a good idea for Obama to pick a new VP candidate in 2012. In 2008 he needed an experienced hand to offer assurance since he himself was so new. 4 years later that isn’t an issue. But I don’t think Hillary would be a great VP pick either. Ideally Obama would like a new face; perhaps an exciting young governor who can appeal to independents. And of course if the ticket wins the new VP would be in an excellent position to win in 2016. Neither Biden nor Hillary is likely to run in 2016 so from that perspective it’s a bit of a waste having them run for VP. Of course all this was quite true of Cheney in 2004 as well. Bush didn’t need him nearly as much as in 2000 and he was probably a liability by 2004. Bush stuck with him anyway and I suspect Obama will do the same with Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/7 "2010-10-06T18:10:15Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Bush didn’t need him nearly as much as in 2000 and he was probably a liability by 2004. Bush stuck with him anyway and I suspect Obama will do the same with Biden. Cheney was a liability _politically_ by that time, for sure. He was never popular and was very unpopular for most of his term. But if the President feels he works well with the VP, wouldn’t you want him to stick with the same VP even if someone else might bring in more votes? A good VP is not just there to balance the ticket. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/8 "2010-10-06T18:10:46Z")
Clinton would be younger than Reagan when he ran. She is ambitious. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/9 "2010-10-06T18:19:26Z")
Unlikely that Obama will through Biden overboard, even to SoS and unlikely Biden would go along. Hillary would though. ---
**Author:** ![Aswan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c68b51/32.png) [@Aswan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aswan)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/10 "2010-10-06T18:23:10Z")
Of course we’ll know more about the political landscape in a month, but if the Republican wave turns into a tsunami I can see two years of declining numbers for Obama, at which point maybe Biden takes one for the team with one of those “I’ve decided I want to spend more time with my family” speeches. While I don’t think John Boehner is measuring the drapes in Nancy Pelosi’s office just yet, the Republicans are going to pick up at least 30 seats in the house and maybe 60 (I’ve seen estimates as high as 85 but that’s probably a stretch.) If the Hill is dysfunctional now, it’s going to catatonic in ’12. Hillary’s numbers are good; I can see her stepping in and picking up the slack. And then running in ’16. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/11 "2010-10-06T18:26:09Z")
> [@Aswan](#): > > Of course we’ll know more about the political landscape in a month, but if the Republican wave turns into a tsunami I can see two years of declining numbers for Obama, at which point maybe Biden takes one for the team with one of those “I’ve decided I want to spend more time with my family” speeches. And why does he do that? Keep in mind that this is the apex of his career. ---
**Author:** ![Aswan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c68b51/32.png) [@Aswan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aswan)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/12 "2010-10-06T18:29:55Z")
Or perhaps the nadir. Joe is old school and will do what the party needs. Always has, always will. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/13 "2010-10-06T18:31:27Z")
Set aside the possibility of Hillary Clinton as Vice Prez-_Joe Biden as Secretary Of State?!?_ That ain’t a minor position folks, and he isn’t up to the task in my humble opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/14 "2010-10-06T18:33:29Z")
> [@Aswan](#): > > Or perhaps the nadir. Yeah, you’re right. He’s been in the Senate 30 years, run for president a few times, and now he’s in the White House every day and be the famous “last voice in the room.” It must suck for him because he gets made fun of for putting his foot in his mouth sometimes. > [@](#): > > Joe is old school and will do what the party needs. Always has, always will. There is no “the party.” If Obama wanted him out and he didn’t want to go, it would get ugly. If Obama wants him to stay, there’s nobody to make either of them change their minds. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/15 "2010-10-06T18:33:46Z")
Leaving aside everything else, why in the world would Hilary Clinton want this to happen? Her major political liability is that she’s seen as power hungry and ruthless; this would only make things worse. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/16 "2010-10-06T18:47:24Z")
It seems someone is floating the idea of replacing Joe Biden with Hillary Clinton on the 2012 Democratic presidential slate. According to [this Washington Post story](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/05/AR2010100506679.html?wprss=rss_politics), Bob Woodward is the most recent to report on the idea. The idea being that it would energize the Democratic base. My first though was, “What a terrible idea”. IMO Hillary would energize the opposition and make some supporters into the opposition, far more than she would rally support. What do you think? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/17 "2010-10-06T18:53:36Z")
**Boyo Jim** started a thread on this topic in the U.S. Elections Forum, but I’ve merged it with the thread in Great Debates. It’s a better fit in GD since it doesn’t really relate to the current elections. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/18 "2010-10-06T19:17:56Z")
If Biden leaves for any reason short of a major health crisis, it’ll be perceived as a major show of weakness on Obama’s part, and Obama, being one of the most skilled politicians in the country, is far too savvy to show weakness like that. Heck, even a major health crisis might _still_ look weak: If it happened, you can be sure that pundits would be saying “Obama should have had the sense to choose a young, healthy running mate, like McCain did”. “Resigning to spend more time with family” has no chance at all of working, since everyone knows exactly what that always means, anyway. If Obama wants a hand-picked successor after his (likely) eight years in office, he’ll do it the old-fashioned way, by endorsing someone in the 2016 primaries. ---
**Author:** ![Aswan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c68b51/32.png) [@Aswan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aswan)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/19 "2010-10-06T19:44:32Z")
> [@marley23](#): > > yeah, you’re right. He’s been in the senate 30 years, run for president a few times, and now he’s in the white house every day and be the famous “last voice in the room.” it must suck for him because he gets made fun of for putting his foot in his mouth sometimes. > > There is no “the party.” if obama wanted him out and he didn’t want to go, it would get ugly. If obama wants him to stay, there’s nobody to make either of them change their minds. If there is no “the party,” someone needs to send Tim Kaine the memo. And, yes, nadir. “Warm bucket of spit” and all that. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2010, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271/20 "2010-10-06T19:53:55Z")
> [@Aswan](#): > > If there is no “the party,” someone needs to send Tim Kaine the memo. And who appointed Tim Kaine? > [@](#): > > And, yes, nadir. “Warm bucket of spit” and all that. Biden was chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee. He spent pretty much his whole Senate career on that committee. He didn’t give it up for a demotion. And Garner’s words are outdated. (He also really said “A bucket of warm piss.”) > **[After Cheney (Published 2009)](https://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/29/magazine/29Biden-t.html?ref=joseph_r_jr_biden)** > > Sounding board, sage on foreign policy, twister of senatorial arms: Joe Biden could be the second-most-powerful vice president in history. > [@](#): > > He was nervous about accepting Obama’s offer of the vice presidency, fearing that he would suffer a loss in status, and in voice, from his role as a Senate baron. According to John Podesta, a former official in the Clinton White House who ran Obama’s transition, Biden “had a fairly clear sense in his own mind, which probably existed even before he was selected by Obama but definitely in the weeks in advance of and right after the election, that he didn’t want to be the guy in charge of x portfolio.” Instead, Biden wanted the role every vice president wants, but which perhaps only his predecessor, Dick Cheney, had enjoyed: to be the last voice in the room. > […] > Yet, on foreign policy, Biden has largely realized his wish to be the president’s all-purpose adviser and sage. He attends the president’s daily briefing every morning with James L. Jones, the national-security adviser; often Biden will stay behind for a few minutes to raise other issues. He has a weekly lunch with the president and no staff members. He sits in on most of the “principals’ meetings” of top national-security officials, which occur about once a week; unlike Cheney, a silent presence at these sessions, Biden has plenty to say. Biden attends every important meeting on foreign policy the president holds. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-the-music-stops-in-2012-have-joe-biden-and-hillary-clinton-switched-chairs/556271.md?page=2)