As much as I appreciate the quality and consistency of the responses, counter-responses and calls for cites, I think there may be one simple thing that keeps getting overlooked. The debate appears to center around attempted and logical thought patterns. Everyone seems to be arguing about what is the best method to disarm the guy holding the gun to the hostage’s head. Yet if that gunman actually pulls the trigger, that same gunman may hold off rescuers long enough that any eventual first aid to the hostage is all for naught. A non-fatal injury becomes a fatal injury because the rescue comes too late.
Assuming in my OP the face value of the proposal and Saudi oil does indeed stop overnight. At what point in the stoppage, before the oil may yet again flow, does the world economy reach a critical mass in that the damage is severe enough that permanent damage sets in? Even with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and all the crude in the supply chain (full crude oil tankers enroute, pipelines, refinery stocks, etc.) at what level with the world economy, as well as all the subordinate regional, country, etc., economies, trigger points are passed and the various economies collapse and suffer long-lasting, even permanent damage?
Would Americans finally stop driving those ridiculous 12 MPG SUVs? Would my neighbor stop going off in his 2-ton pickup truck to buy a pack of cigarettes?
Would the local HS stop keeping thier classrooms at 78 F?
We waste a hell of a lot of energy in this country…and nobody seems to care!
There was thread a while back about the strategic reserves. Basically, at a normal consumption rate, they would last 20 odd days. Which is why they’re strategic; I’d imagine they’re specifically tagged to military, policing and emergency services in the event of a massive catastrophe. Which a 75% supply is not.
75% of the supply drying up would drive prices up by about 33%. Like I said earlier that makes the cost per barrel about $66. Ripple that through to the gas pump. If we say the average price per gallon in the US is $1.88 then you’re looking at $2.50 a gallon.
A Civic tank holds 13.2 gallons and assuming a fill up every 2 week the price difference amounts to $213 a year. An Odyssey holds 20 gallons and would cost $322 more; while a F150 (25 gallon tank) would cost you an extra $400 dollars a year.
That’s not small change but even the F150 only costs $33 extra a month to run. That’s not about to cripple the average car driver. It would likely raise prices delivered by trucking firms and contribute to inflation pressures but I’m still missing the crisis. Not withstanding the unlikely SA/Iraq/Iran alliance and the reluctance on other oil producers from cashing in on the increase in oil revenues available.
End-of-the-world speculation is always fun…but why speculate, when you can look at real events?
We have already lived through this scenario. In 1973, the oil stopped flowing.But somehow you and I are still alive to talk about it.
I assume you are too young to remember it: in 1973 gas stations limited purchases to 10 gallons(at a time when most cars had huge 8 cylinder engines and 40 gallon gas tanks).The federal government printed ration cards and prepared the public for using them, explaining that each family would receive barely enough gas to get to work and back.
Certain sectors of the economy were damaged, but no more than certain sectors are damaged today by ,say, outsourcing jobs to India
.
Back then,people got worried… But we all survived.
Today, you sound worried…But you will survive, too.