# When Was The August 21, 2017 Eclipse First \[Accurately\] Predicted? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [August 12, 2017, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456 "2017-08-12T18:57:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![cochrane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cochrane/32/10441_2.png) [@cochrane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cochrane)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/21 "2017-08-15T03:49:07Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Actually, there’s two solar eclipses every year … however some are annual and some are seen only over the oceans … also there’s such a narrow band of totality that it’s “rare” for a total solar eclipse to occur _at one specific point_ on the Earth … > > This eclipse is a Big Deal™ because 36] it’s during summer; 42] it’s occurring over a rather large and populated landmass; 58] the USA hasn’t had a total eclipse for 39-1/2 years and 73] the internet says it’s a Big Deal™ … > > You may scoff at that point seventy-three, but remember in 1979 we were still kicking around Z-80’s and parity bits … You’re correct that the last total eclipse visible over the continental United States was on February 26, 1979. However, the state of Hawaii was in the path of totality for the eclipse of July 11, 1991. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/22 "2017-08-15T04:14:49Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m sure there’s earlier, but let’s start with [1889](https://books.google.com/books?id=E7RAAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA92&dq=eclipse+2017&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjBh_j1p9jVAhUk6IMKHXU_BkYQ6AEILjAB#v=onepage&q=eclipse%202017&f=false). Looks like there’s a [slightly earlier edition of the book from 1874](https://books.google.com/books?id=zm8DAAAAQAAJ&pg=PA92&dq=eclipse+2017&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwje_IDwrtjVAhUD5GMKHZoHA24Q6AEIWTAJ#v=onepage&q=eclipse%202017&f=false) (with the same prediction). ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/23 "2017-08-15T05:08:30Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m sure there’s earlier, but let’s start with [1889](https://books.google.com/books?id=E7RAAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA92&dq=eclipse+2017&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjBh_j1p9jVAhUk6IMKHXU_BkYQ6AEILjAB#v=onepage&q=eclipse%202017&f=false). > > There’s also [this reference from 1894](https://books.google.com/books?id=qRk4AAAAMAAJ&pg=PA241&dq=eclipse+2017&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjBh_j1p9jVAhUk6IMKHXU_BkYQ6AEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=eclipse%202017&f=false). Go to page 217. > > > [@](#): > > > > But not until early in the twenty-first century will the path of any total eclipse traverse a large area of the United States: then, if the charts of OPPOLZER can be trusted, two totalities near mid-day will occur in the region of the Mississippi; the first of them, 21st August 2017, with a line from Oregon to South Carolina; and the second, 8th April 2024, with a track passing northeasterly from Austin, Texas, to the city of Washington, almost duplicating the path of the eclipse of 1900, and perhaps again exhibiting the spectacle of the corona at Boston. But present enthusiasm for these far-away darkenings of the Sun is naturally feeble. > > I note that the path of the second eclipse isn’t quite right. It will touch through Austin, but nowhere near DC. It continues up through Indianapolis, Buffalo, barely touches Montreal, and parts of Maine. That’s not right, is it? Because there was one in 1918: [NASA - Total Solar Eclipse of 1918 Jun 08](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/SEgoogle1901/SE1918Jun08Tgoogle.html) In fact, the three sequential TSEs crossing CONUS, both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, are: 1918-06-08: [NASA - Total Solar Eclipse of 1918 Jun 08](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/SEgoogle1901/SE1918Jun08Tgoogle.html) 2017-08-21: [https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/interactive\_map/index.html](https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/interactive_map/index.html), and 2045-08-12: [NASA - Total Solar Eclipse of 2045 Aug 12](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/SEgoogle2001/SE2045Aug12Tgoogle.html) ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/24 "2017-08-15T05:36:40Z")
It appears my link is bonked. [Let’s try again](https://books.google.com/books?id=qRk4AAAAMAAJ&pg=PA217&dq=eclipse+2017&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjBh_j1p9jVAhUk6IMKHXU_BkYQ6AEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=eclipse%202017&f=false). The paragraph does start like this, though: “As for eclipses beyond this date and visible in the easter part of the United States, they are few and unimportant for the next century. The Sun may rise entirely eclipsed at Boston, 2d October 1959, but totality will be very short. On 7th March 1970, there will be another brief totality, this time in Florida.” And, then, the part I quoted. The 1918 eclipse is mentioned two paragraphs before that one. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/25 "2017-08-15T05:42:34Z")
Sorry, and the “beyond this date” refers to 1937. ---
**Author:** ![Isilder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/cc9497/32.png) [@Isilder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isilder)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/26 "2017-08-15T11:53:25Z")
The book “Totality: The Great American Eclipses of 2017 and 2024”, is a detailed discussion of the history of such predictions. Not that I can read it. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/27 "2017-08-15T12:45:48Z")
Well, the eclipse date and time is predicted in this little book I carry around with me, so that when I journey into the wild, uncharted interior of Ohio I can amaze and confound the natives by telling them the sun will go dark.\* \*it worked great in _King Solomon’s Mines_. ---
**Author:** ![Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/earl_snake-hips_tucker/32/3269_2.png) [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earl_Snake-Hips_Tucker)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/28 "2017-08-15T14:11:25Z")
I found an AP article from February 1970 about the 1970 eclipse, and it said: > [@](#): > > The total eclipse will be the first since 1963 to be visible within the continental United States–and there won’t be another one in this century. > > The next major eclipse, of long path and duration, visible in the United States will come on April 8, 2024. There’ll be another in 2045. Someone dropped the ball. ---
**Author:** ![JohnGalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johngalt/32/184_2.png) [@JohnGalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnGalt)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/29 "2017-08-15T18:18:39Z")
The back of the Sunday comics section has the kids page. I really like their line: “On Monday a total solar eclipse is _expected_ to cross the United States” (emphasis added). It’s not just expected, it’s going to actually happen. It’s like saying “tomorrow morning the sun is expected to rise in the east”. Seems like such a weasly way of reporting actual scientific facts, something calculated over a century ago. ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2017, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/30 "2017-08-16T00:31:14Z")
> [@JohnGalt](#): > > The back of the Sunday comics section has the kids page. I really like their line: > > “On Monday a total solar eclipse is _expected_ to cross the United States” (emphasis added). > > It’s not just expected, it’s going to actually happen. It’s like saying “tomorrow morning the sun is expected to rise in the east”. Seems like such a weasly way of reporting actual scientific facts, something calculated over a century ago. There is still a logical possibility that the eclipse will not occur as expected. The chance of it physically not happening is so vanishingly small so as to be impossible to even conceive of how to calculate it, but it’s at least logically possible that any number of things could happen that would cause the eclipse not to occur as expected. The same is true, of course, about the Sun rising in the east. But no one makes news reports about the Sun rising in the East, people only refer to it as something that always happens with extreme regularity and can be counted on. The newspeople should _always_ report “is expected” for any event in the future, but one could certainly relate to them not allowing the possibility when it’s something that’s perfectly cyclical. An eclipse is an actual news item, and needs to be treated like any prospective news announcement. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2017, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/31 "2017-08-16T02:28:05Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Looks like there’s a [slightly earlier edition of the book from 1874](https://books.google.com/books?id=zm8DAAAAQAAJ&pg=PA92&dq=eclipse+2017&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwje_IDwrtjVAhUD5GMKHZoHA24Q6AEIWTAJ#v=onepage&q=eclipse%202017&f=false) (with the same prediction). Fascinating, thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2017, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/32 "2017-08-16T02:41:53Z")
600 million years from now – give or take – you will no longer be able to see a total solar eclipse anywhere on the surface of Earth, as the [Moon will be too far away.](http://www.foxnews.com/science/2017/08/02/earth-will-have-its-last-total-solar-eclipse-in-about-600-million-years.html) ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2017, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/33 "2017-08-16T02:44:35Z")
Anything from that time is likely to have used Hansen’s old lunar tables; inaccuracies there could account for any slight discrepancies compared to later calculations. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2017, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456/34 "2017-08-17T07:44:03Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Fascinating, thanks. And a [slightly earlier prediction](https://books.google.com/books?id=6ZEOAAAAIAAJ&pg=RA2-PA334&dq=eclipse+2017&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjAxe-k393VAhXqj1QKHW-QBFwQ6AEIQTAF#v=onepage&q=eclipse%202017&f=false), from 1871. It’s a bit of a cheat, though, since it’s only predicting eclipses seen from France, and so only predicts a weak partial. I don’t see any note that it would be total in North America. Still, it does get the date right and the degree of partiality (from France) looks about right. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-was-the-august-21-2017-eclipse-first-accurately-predicted/793456.md?page=1)