I think we’ll have paper books forever if your willing to be flexible in how you define paper.
As others have said, some alternate material may replace actual paper but there is something about the tactile experience of reading a book that can’t be replaced.
On the other hand I though Coke would always come in bottles and now I can’t find bottles of coke anywhere in my neighborhood.
Zoid, what neighborhood are you in?
There will always be paper books, though they may end up appealing to a specialized audience. I think it’s unlikely that electronic books will replace them completely; there are too many problem.
Part of the problem with electronic books is that they aren’t always the best way to read a text. It’s much easier to page through a book and mark pages for comparison. In addition, they require no electricity, and are more durable (drop your PDA on a concrete sidewalk to see). Sure you can put a hundred books on a PDA, but if you drop it down a manhole, you’re out 100 books. If you do the same to a paper book, you’re only out one book.
But the main reason why electronic books aren’t going to replace books is one that most proponents of them never think of. EB Essentially, electronic books will most likely follow a path similar to the WWW. Current ebooks are like lynx, the first browser – great for reading text. But someone will come up with the equivalent of Mozilla/Netscape – adding graphics. And then more graphics. And then moving graphics. And then streaming graphics . . . .
Ultimately, book readers will become movie readers. Those who actually want to read will lose interest.
Oak Park.
Why, you got a connection - hook me up!
According to the movie "Technology: The Web and ‘World English,’ " (2002) the British Library estimates it’ll take 400 years for 2,500 workers to digitize their collection alone.
There’ll be paper books as long as I’m alive.
One thing that bothers me about the idea of digitizing all our information is that digital information can be changed and erased. I like having things down on paper.
I’ve bought exactly one e-book, after downloading the MS reader software. It was a frustrating experience; the software wouldn’t let me do the one thing I wanted to do – print the book I had just bought, because I hate reading off a monitor. Oddly enough, I had no trouble copying the file and emailing it to myself; I could have sent out hundreds of copies if I had wished. But all I wanted was a printout.
I also get tired of looking at a screen after a while. It’s nice to be able to look at text on a page, and it’s definitely pleasing to view pictures on paper.
Zoid, isn’t there a Treasure Island in Oak Park? I can’t believe no place has Coke in bottles. (I assume you’re talking glass)
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by DesertDog *
**[li]It would have to last for hours on a charge or set of batteries – six, minimum, days would be better[/li][li]The screen would have to be readable from full sunlight to a moderately low light condition – providing its own light would be a bonus. **[/li][/QUOTE]
I believe that various people are working on a form of electronic paper which is stable in any given configuration, so you’ll only need power to change page (think little ink cells or black\white sided pixel-sized squares flipping over)
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[QUOTE]
[li]It would be capable of marking your place when you leave off and can return quickly to that place when you pick it up again, and also skip to a page reasonably fast – no hitting ‘next’ 150 times to get to the racy part. **[/li][/QUOTE]
Should be simple enough with a little thought. At the least I’d expect a chapter skip button and a virtual placemarker.
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[QUOTE]
[li]It would have to be sturdy enough to take to the beach – a dunk in saltwater might be asking a bit much, but a bit of sand better not gum up the works, nor lying in the sun for a few hours.**[/li][/QUOTE]
I’d envisage something the size and toughness of the original Gameboy, though whether or not you’d want it hinged I’m not sure.
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[li]It would need to be cheap enough that losing it might be annoying, but not traumatic – compare leaving a book on the bus with leaving a PDA. **[/li][/QUOTE]
How about somewere inbetween, like a Gameboy say, or an early walkman or a discman today.
This is the tricky one. Perhaps you’d end up with two basic types, one fancy one which can run graphics and all (as you say), and\or support user note-taking, and one simple, cheaper one which is read-only and basic text.
I like books, but storage and transport would be easier in electronic form, and it doesn’t seem impossible. Of course, we know it’s completely possible for music, and they’ve yet to sort that out, so I’m not holding my breath.
Bottles are plentiful everywhere I’ve been to. The plastic kind at least. The glass bottles are harder to locate, but they’re still around.
I think we’re forgetting that many places in the world don’t have the kind of technology that we (the US and the West in general) do. I would think books will persist at least as long as a large portion of the world’s people aren’t in a position to have eBooks and some of the things that are being proposed on this thread. And that’s only assuming things like these electronic books catch on. Seems reasonably possible to me, but it might be hell on your eyes…
I HOPE paper books stay around for a long long time. Sitting down with a child and reading Peter Rabbit to him/her from a PDA just seems so cold!
Although I must say, I don’t much BUY books anymore. Paperbacks have recently shot up in price to an average of $11.99 Canadian. Eep! Thank goodness for the book sales our local church has every year for a fundraiser…
my requirement for a replacement for books (something not just tollerable, but better than a book)
it would have to be say… two little sticks that you can unroll a page of plastic like a scroll, and it will solitify or have some sort of edges that come up so its a square of plastic with two sticks on the edges. and on the plastic words will appear a page at a time, and you can press buttons on the edges for next page or next chapter and it will be electro/mechanical not a screen (like electric ink that changes the page and stays that way till new electricity makes it something else, so its not flickering and you can leave it on one page forever without wasteing battery) full color would be nice if possible.
that would be something I would conciter replaceing books for, since I could keep it in my pocket, it would have memory for hundreds of books and would be simple enough that its not some far future that it would be a reasonable price (I can imagin electric ink printed paper getting under 5 dollars in the next 40 or so years, it exists already) the computer part of it is 1980s technology, memory is getting cheaper and cheaper.
thats something I could give up books for
You’re all forgetting something here: Copyright issues. Until someone figures the mess out, you’re not going to see very many ebooks out there. Especially if Kazaa-type sharing takes off for ebooks. Books don’t have this problem.
It would nice, however, if someone would put the books that are in public domain in a .pdf-type format, that way rare books which are no longer in print can be readily available.
Frankly, I find copyright laws to be rather annoying (not because I’m worried that the RIAA is gonna kick in my front door, either) as there are a lot of works out there, which are no longer being published and are well-nigh impossible to find because whomever holds the rights to the material doesn’t want to publish it since they’re not going to make huge wads of cash off it in the first few weeks, even though they’ll make money off the work as the years go by. It took me over a year to find a copy of The Indomintable Tin Goose which is the only biography of Preston Tucker and is out of print. In talking with the Tucker club, I’ve found that they can’t get the publisher (who holds the rights) to reprint the book unless they purchase 30,000 copies. Considering that the club has fewer than 2,000 members, that ain’t gonna happen.
Until someone comes up with a workable solution to the issues of copyright and piracy, dead tree editions are going to be with us.
I think a lot of you are vastly underestimating just how new the entire field of ebook readers is and the potential for improvment. Sure, there are always going to be people who will want paper books but there are still people today who prefer analog amplifiers which doesnt mean that digital hasn’t “won” due to a combination of better performance and price.
Just as some “out there” indications of what book reading COULD become:
Digital walls, walls would be able to display any sort of graphics or text with enough accuracy that it cannot be distinguished from the real thing. People would have “virtual windows” etc. Coupled with head tracking techonlogy, you could have very funky things like keeping it in the center of your feild of view constantly so you could read and cook at the same time for example.
Virtual googles, looks like a pair of sunnies but with a screen on the inside that can also turn transperant. Hooked up wirelessly to a book reader. Presents books of any size and tracks your eyes so it knows when to turn the page.
Read aloud books. Use a voice sythesizer and some sort of inflection markup language to read a book as convincingly as a real person with books on tape.
“Trust me, son. Stone tablets will be around for ages! Chiseling stone novels is a noble profession.”
“Trust me, son. Guttenburg has a wise idea. Pass the ink.”
“Trust me, son. Typewriters are the wave of the future. Grab me some carbon paper.”
“Trust me, son. Steven Jobs is no fool. Plug in the computer.”
Yes, there will always be paper books…in caves and vaults…for many years to come.
But what are you reading right now?
“Trust me son. Virtual reality contact lenses with modems to the Smithsonian are the rage. Grab me another nanochip.”
I recently acquired a Pocket PC which came with e-book capabilities (came bundled with it). It is very slightly larger than a Palm Pilot. I am comparing it to the following points:
Yes, a bit of a problem - I haven’t timed out how long it takes to run it down, but it is sufficient for me to read on the commute to work (I take a train - don’t think I’m driving and reading, please), read for an hour at lunch, and read on the commute home. Hmm… that’s about 2-1/2 hours right there, and I still have 1/4 to 1/2 charge left (depends partly on screen brightness setting). So, it looks like it might meet your minimum. It also has it’s own power cord, so I can recharge at just about any electrical socket. When I went on vacation I took both the power cord and the portable keyboard along with the Pocket PC and together it took up less space in my luggage than a single hardcover book.
It may not meet the higher end of this requirement, but so far it is meeting my needs.
Pocket PC does provide its own light, and it is adjustable. I can read in a dark room (as a bonus, in a real pinch it could function as a weak flashlight) or in daylight. However, it doesn’t compete well with direct, noon time sunlight. Much easier to read in shade than direct daylight.
So far my Pocket PC has endured -10 F in the winter and 90+ in the summer. No, I haven’t left it in the car to bake in the summer time. While there is an ideal range for it, it can clearly operate outside of it, at least briefly. I would not, however, dunk it in either fresh or salt water. Grit will not impair the funciton of the device, but if gets into the ports recharging, hooking up headphones, etc., might get to be difficult. So no, I don’t think it matches your durability requirements.
Ouch! Nope, it’s not cheap enough I’d be willing to lose it.
I suspect they could manufacture a basic level dedicated e-book reader that’s in the $30-$100 range, maybe even less, but they don’t. I do know that dedicated e-book readers only a few years ago were selling for as much as a low-end laptop, and certainly for more than I paid for my Pocket PC (whic really is a computer and in addition to books does games, word processing, spreadsheets, and other applications). The prices will come down. Eventually.
Mine does that.
In fact, when I return to reading it automatically opens the file to where I left off the last time.
I can insert multiple bookmarks in the e-book reader. For items downloaded in html or text formats this is more of a problem.
Mine currently carries a full-length novel and about 30 files of fanfic and other reading files.
It also has two games installed, a copy of my pilot log book, my address book for family and friends, and a bunch of jpg’s and sound files. And it’s slightly smaller than most of my paperbacks.
I find that I can read comfortably on it for quite awhile IF I adjust the screen. Partly this is because instead of sitting in one spot in front of a desktop PC I can change seats, read lying down in bed, etc.
As a bonus - the docking cradle allows you to back up everything. So, even if it was damaged, destroyed, or lost I would retain the information and could load it onto a new Pocket PC.
All that said, I still like paper books.
I think e-books have a place and role to play, and so do the paper books. As much as I enjoy the Pocket PC, as much as I use it to read on the go, when I’m at home I prefer paper-based books. Maybe it’s habit. Maybe it’s the heft of the object. Maybe it’s that for some things a larger format page is better. And there’s no question that for sand, rain, water, grease and other material insults the paper books are still more durable. And still cheaper.
How about physical books, printed on non-paper?
Like synthetic carbon sheets that will be waterproof?
Or some sort of processed aluminium composite that folds like paper?
Because once trees start getting in short supply, you might just see them.
me too… Thats why there are shelves and stacks of books all over my house. the hubby says if there is an earthquake they will find us buried under books!
Printed books will disappear about a generation after we stop having… power outages.
in addition to what Broomstick has already mentioned, i would like to add in my point of view as someone who actually enjoy reading from the pocket pc, especially for leisure and outdoor readings.
as had been mentioned, a power cord and the ppc takes up less space than a book, in addition i use the low battery ‘feature’ to force myself to take a break to recharge; with a paperback i can only rely on the coming daybreak to remind myself to get some sleep…
i won’t read a paperback in full sunlight anyway.
i agree that durability can be improved on, but i also won’t dunk a paperback into saltwater, or read it anyplace it might get wet.
i already own a ppc for purposes other than to read a book, so the point is moot.
in addition to auto bookmarks, you can highlight words, add notes or drawings, search for words, increase font size, and a ‘lookup’ feature (point to a word and retrieve the meaning).
most importantly, not buying paperbacks means i avoid the heartbreak of seeing my books yellow with indignity, being put aside as space runs out to display them and gathering dust in the storeroom. 
with regards to the OP i agree that paperbooks are here to stay, for all the reasons already mentioned by the other posters. for me, the choice for leisure reading on the go will always be my ppc, along with everything else i do on it; from reading the news to listening to music etc.