# When will Climate Change become dire? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 21, 2019, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739 "2019-11-21T00:10:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2019, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/101 "2019-11-30T05:32:21Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > [Why Apocalyptic Claims About Climate Change Are Wrong](https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-everything-they-say-about-climate-change-is-wrong/#26add14712d6) > > Is 1931 cherry-picked? You bet. I don’t buy the 99.7%. But at least 90%? Yes. > > Climate denialism is wrong. But if I were predict which is closer to true, climate denialism or the [following AOC quotation](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/01/22/ocasio-cortez_the_world_is_going_to_end_in_12_years_if_we_dont_address_climate_change.html), I’m going to say, as a never-Trump centrist, the first one: > > So. World War II. Half the farmers go to work on the climate war. Which means food rationing for all. > > I’m agreeing with [#26](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21986692&postcount=26). There’s only one way to say this: You’re wrong. Our resident conservative, oil-patch resident and fossil-fuel advocate in #26 provides us with an apocalyptic litany of things he apparently believes will happen if we try to address climate change, none of which are accurate and most of which are entirely false. AOC is indulging in a bit of political hyperbole, but she is not wrong. Of course the world will not end in 12 years, but approximately 12 years [is about the maximum time we have](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report) to limit global temperature rise to no more than 1.5C according to a recent IPCC report, beyond which the impacts become increasingly catastrophic. And frankly no one seriously believes we’re going to be able to do that, especially with the US pulling out of the Paris climate accord. So, no, the world is not going to end in 12 years. 12 years is around the time – if events continue as they probably will – that we’ll have to look our children in the eye and say, “it looks like this is going to be really bad”. Because 1.5C is about the most we can sustain and still retain some semblance of a normal climate; remember that even now vast areas of Arctic permafrost are melting for the first time in thousands of years and releasing methane, and entire Inuit communities are having to be relocated because their villages are literally falling into the sea, while polar ice coverges continues to hit record lows, leading to accelerated Arctic warming and long-term changes in North American weather patterns. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2019, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/102 "2019-11-30T08:06:36Z")
I invite all climate-change [del]deniers[/del] optimists to purchase [del]trailers[/del] modular homes and reside in [del]flood zones[/del] seaside Florida. Take your kids. Show us the depth of your faith. Nothing to worry about, sure. Be strong, not a climate wimp. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2019, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/103 "2019-11-30T11:56:01Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > . . . an apocalyptic litany of things he apparently believes will happen if we try to address climate change, none of which are accurate and most of which are entirely false. AOC is indulging in a bit of political hyperbole, but she is not wrong. Looking at [#26](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21986692&postcount=26) again, I think the risk that we will “dismantle global capitalism to fix it” is smaller than the risk that climate change will be more dire than I suspect it will be. Also, while I’m for nuclear power, I think Sam Stone’s claims about its benefits are excessive. Here’s my problem with threads like this: It sounds like when your side says something clearly mistaken, it’s a “bit of political hyperbole” that’s “not wrong.” But if the other side says something even close to being comparable, it’s “entirely false.” That doesn’t compute for me. > [@RioRico](#): > > I invite all climate-change [del]deniers[/del] optimists to purchase [del]trailers[/del] modular homes and reside in [del]flood zones[/del] seaside Florida. Take your kids. Show us the depth of your faith. Nothing to worry about, sure. Be strong, not a climate wimp. If you are an American taxpayer, this is terrible advice – for your sake. They will either purchase government-subsidized flood insurance, or rely on tax-funded disaster relief, and then, after moving back a few times, get a buy-out. Some of this depends on one’s definition of dire. If we use Dutch techniques to save New York City, while giving up seasonal seaside homes in Florida, and casinos in Atlantic City, that’s not dire to me. If life expectancy in Bangladesh gets higher slower, that’s bad. If it goes down, as in Russia, and as now in the U.S., that’s a better candidate for dire. And it has little to nothing to do with climate change. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2019, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/104 "2019-11-30T12:24:53Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Looking at [#26](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21986692&postcount=26) again, I think the risk that we will “dismantle global capitalism to fix it” is smaller than the risk that climate change will be more dire than I suspect it will be. Also, while I’m for nuclear power, I think Sam Stone’s claims about its benefits are excessive. > > Here’s my problem with threads like this: It sounds like when your side says something clearly mistaken, it’s a “bit of political hyperbole” that’s “not wrong.” But if the other side says something even close to being comparable, it’s “entirely false.” That doesn’t compute for me. > > If you are an American taxpayer, this is terrible advice – for your sake. They will either purchase government-subsidized flood insurance, or rely on tax-funded disaster relief, and then, after moving back a few times, get a buy-out. > > Some of this depends on one’s definition of dire. If we use Dutch techniques to save New York City, while giving up seasonal seaside homes in Florida, and casinos in Atlantic City, that’s not dire to me. If life expectancy in Bangladesh gets higher slower, that’s bad. If it goes down, as in Russia, and as now in the U.S., that’s a better candidate for dire. And it has little to nothing to do with climate change. What I don’t understand is why you’re comparing non-expert/politcal viewpoints anyway. Why not simply accept what the IPCC report says is likely to happen? In terms of economic harm, again, why not accept expert opinion. [https://www.nature.com/articles/530407a](https://www.nature.com/articles/530407a) [https://pubs-aeaweb-org.cyber.usask.ca/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.109.6.1991](https://pubs-aeaweb-org.cyber.usask.ca/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.109.6.1991) [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514000468](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514000468) [https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/269a/93950efc99023a1ee91b0eea51e90f6f3723.pdf](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/269a/93950efc99023a1ee91b0eea51e90f6f3723.pdf) If you want more papers, then let me know, I’m happy to provide them. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2019, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/105 "2019-11-30T14:23:38Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > I invite all climate-change [del]deniers[/del] optimists to purchase [del]trailers[/del] modular homes and reside in [del]flood zones[/del] seaside Florida. Take your kids. Show us the depth of your faith. Nothing to worry about, sure. Be strong, not a climate wimp. I believe in climate change but I’m definitely 8n the optimist camp. If you pay for me to have my equivalent home on the water in Florida I’ll move my family there tomorrow. I need 3500 sqft on an acre within 40 miles of a major airport. Let me know when you’ve purchased that land you think is worthless. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2019, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/106 "2019-11-30T16:00:00Z")
When will climate change become dire? When Republican politicians admit it. Which is now. [In Florida and elsewhere, Republicans face pressure over climate change](https://www.pressherald.com/2019/11/27/in-florida-and-elsewhere-republicans-face-pressure-over-climate-change/) > [@](#): > > TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Since taking office in January, Florida’s Republican governor has appointed a science officer, established a climate change czar and pledged to spend billions of dollars to restore the Everglades and combat the pollutants that spawn blue-green algae and red tides. > > A top Republican lawmaker in the state, meanwhile, recently stood on the House floor and implored his party “to stop being afraid of words like ‘climate change’ and ‘sea level rise.’” > > While President Donald Trump and his administration reject the urgency of the threat, leading Republicans in Florida and other states find themselves under political pressure to address the immediate impacts of climate change. As a result, these leaders are increasingly changing their message, and in some cases their policies, to acknowledge climate science and discuss mitigation, even as the Trump administration dismisses both. It’s real. Republicans are admitting it. They’ve been forced to because of the evidence before their constituents’ eyes. If you’re arguing a position to the right of the Republican governor of Florida, you’ve lost all credibility. ---
**Author:** ![Personal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Personal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Personal)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2019, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/107 "2019-11-30T16:32:09Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > What I don’t understand is why you’re comparing non-expert/politcal viewpoints anyway. Why not simply accept what the IPCC report says is likely to happen? In terms of economic harm, again, why not accept expert opinion. > > [Economics: Current climate models are grossly misleading | Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/530407a) > > [Sign in - University of Saskatchewan](https://pubs-aeaweb-org.cyber.usask.ca/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.109.6.1991) > > [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514000468](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514000468) > > [[PDF] Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change | Semantic Scholar](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/269a/93950efc99023a1ee91b0eea51e90f6f3723.pdf) > > If you want more papers, then let me know, I’m happy to provide them. Your second link needs a login. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2019, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/108 "2019-11-30T20:12:50Z")
> [@Personal](#): > > Your second link needs a login. It is too bad his paper cannot be accessed since it is probably the closest to agreeing on some of the points made by post #26. Here is his video addressing the UN. Somewhat long. Nordhaus won a Nobel prize for his work so I feel like he’s particularly worth listening to, especially for those espousing a viewpoint like post #26. You have to be careful not to fall into the trap that some right-wing pundits have fallen into and only look at small slices of his work (Shapiro is notorious for this). You really need to read the whole thing and understand it as a whole. Here is an older paper of his. I've not read it but it is discussing his economic model. [http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/OldWebFiles/DICEGAMS/dice\_mss\_072407\_all.pdf](http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/OldWebFiles/DICEGAMS/dice_mss_072407_all.pdf) Oh while searching for an alternate pdf for Nordhaus, I found a pdf for the Stern Review I was looking for earlier. This is extremely long but well worth reading as well if you have the time. But it is nearly 600 pages so yeah. It is a major commitment. [https://www.brown.edu/Departments/Economics/Faculty/Matthew\_Turner/ec1340/readings/Sternreview\_full.pdf](https://www.brown.edu/Departments/Economics/Faculty/Matthew_Turner/ec1340/readings/Sternreview_full.pdf) > **[Stern Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_Review)** > > The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is a 700-page report released for the Government of the United Kingdom on 30 October 2006 by economist Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics (LSE) and also chair of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) at Leeds University and LSE. The report discusses the effect of global warming on the world economy. Although not the first economi... Note, as with all scholarly material, there will be criticisms. Getting scholars to universally agree on anything, let along economists, is simply impossible. That’s why it is useful to see a few different well-respected perspectives. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2019, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/109 "2019-11-30T20:18:14Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > I invite all climate-change [del]deniers[/del] optimists to purchase [del]trailers[/del] modular homes and reside in [del]flood zones[/del] seaside Florida. Take your kids. Show us the depth of your faith. Nothing to worry about, sure. Be strong, not a climate wimp. That doesn’t seem like a good idea, whether climate change is happening or not. Perhaps you’ve heard of these things called ‘hurricanes’…? ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2019, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/110 "2019-12-01T00:42:24Z")
> [@XT](#): > > That doesn’t seem like a good idea, whether climate change is happening or not. Perhaps you’ve heard of these things called ‘hurricanes’…? Oh yes, hurricanes and other tropical cyclones. Weather events that have ramped-up recently. [Tropical cyclone - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone#Climate_change) : _“The 2007 IPCC report …concluded the observed increase in tropical cyclone intensity is larger than climate models predict. In addition, the report considered that it is likely that storm intensity will continue to increase through the 21st century, and declared it more likely than not that there has been some human contribution to the increases in tropical cyclone intensity.”_ But also, _“projections currently show no consensus on how climate change will affect the overall frequency of tropical cyclones.”_ See, nothing to get hung about. Too bad we can’t map the elevations above sea level at which climate-change [del]deniers[/del] optimists reside. That sounds like a Big Data challenge. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2019, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/111 "2019-12-01T04:06:50Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > Too bad we can’t map the elevations above sea level at which climate-change [del]deniers[/del] optimists reside. That sounds like a Big Data challenge. I may be missing something. What do you think the result would be? You could also speculate on what the millions living below sea level say. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2019, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/112 "2019-12-01T07:50:44Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I may be missing something. > > What do you think the result would be? I don’t know but any correlation would be of interest. Do most [del]deniers[/del] optimists live according to their convictions? And do attitudes change after flooding? > [@](#): > > You could also speculate on what the millions living below sea level say. Yes, Atlantean and Lemurian aqua-people responses are vital. Oh, you mean low LAND dwellers, like in the Nederlands and parts of New Orleans, and around the Salton Sea, Death Valley, and the Dead Sea. The Dutch and Louisianans are likely convinced, while the few others needn’t worry much because inland. [del]Deniers[/del] optimists seem to be mostly Yanks because propaganda. [Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-of-the-worlds-population-lives-less-than-a-meter-above-sea-level) returns a 2006 estimate of 146 million worldwide below one meter above sea level and thus underwater at high tide. I’ll speculate they’re mostly convinced. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2019, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/113 "2019-12-02T00:18:58Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > [del]Deniers[/del] optimists seem to be mostly Yanks because propaganda. I could ask is you really believe that a country with just 4 percent of world population has most of the climate deniers and optimists. But you already answered the question with a yes. This tells another story: [![](https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/bd4a8dm520ikg_rhkxsbvg.png) ](https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/bd4a8dm520ikg_rhkxsbvg.png) The graphic link immediately above is embedded in [Six in 10 Worldwide OK With Efforts to Preserve Environment (Gallup, 2018)](https://news.gallup.com/poll/242030/six-worldwide-efforts-preserve-environment.aspx). I looked to see if there are any polls, in the U.S. or the Netherlands, broken down in a way to test your idea that there would be a relationship between actual impacts, coastal living, and climate denial/optimism. The closest I could find is this map of 2019 Dutch election results: [![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4b/Statenverkiezingen_Nederland_2019.svg/1200px-Statenverkiezingen_Nederland_2019.svg.png) ](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4b/Statenverkiezingen_Nederland_2019.svg/1200px-Statenverkiezingen_Nederland_2019.svg.png) At first glance, it appears that the climate denialist FvD party did better in coastal areas. However, it is isn’t a single-issue party. This next Wikipedia article is based on ten year old data, but shows people in the U.S. were more than twice as likely to perceive climate change as a threat as are people in Bangladesh: > **[Public opinion on climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_opinion_by_country#Asia/Pacific)** > > Public opinion on climate change is related to a broad set of variables, including the effects of sociodemographic, political, cultural, economic, and environmental factors as well as media coverage and interaction with different news and social media. International public opinion on climate change shows a majority viewing the crisis as an emergency. > Public opinion polling is an important part of studying climate communication and how to improve climate action, evidence of public opinion can ... My hypothesis is the people in coastal flood zones, whether in South Carolina or Massachusetts or Bangladesh, are highly influenced, in their views, by people living inland. There isn’t any world-wide solidarity among climate victims that I can see. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2019, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/114 "2019-12-02T14:37:49Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > Oh yes, hurricanes and other tropical cyclones. Weather events that have ramped-up recently. [Tropical cyclone - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone#Climate_change) : _“The 2007 IPCC report …concluded the observed increase in tropical cyclone intensity is larger than climate models predict. In addition, the report considered that it is likely that storm intensity will continue to increase through the 21st century, and declared it more likely than not that there has been some human contribution to the increases in tropical cyclone intensity.”_ > > But also, _“projections currently show no consensus on how climate change will affect the overall frequency of tropical cyclones.”_ See, nothing to get hung about. > > Too bad we can’t map the elevations above sea level at which climate-change [del]deniers[/del] optimists reside. That sounds like a Big Data challenge. Too bad you didn’t actually read what I wrote, which had nothing to do with whether or not such events have gotten more frequent or not. What I SAID was, it would be a bad idea whether or not there is any climate change to build a trailer park on one of the southern US coasts and take your kids to live in it, as you suggested. And it would prove absolutely ZERO to any climate change denier, since they could rightfully point out that hurricanes happened in that part of the country long before the climate started rising, so your silly suggestion is worthless. But thanks for the Wiki link to things I already knew! ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2019, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/115 "2019-12-03T22:54:12Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Too bad you didn’t actually read what I wrote, which had nothing to do with whether or not such events have gotten more frequent or not. What I SAID was, it would be a bad idea whether or not there is any climate change to build a trailer park on one of the southern US coasts and take your kids to live in it, as you suggested. And it would prove absolutely ZERO to any climate change denier, since they could rightfully point out that hurricanes happened in that part of the country long before the climate started rising, so your silly suggestion is worthless. I read you quite well. I apparently too-subtly hinted that chumps feel themselves safe enough where they are. “There’s no global warming!” is safely proclaimed from, say, Boise or Nashville. I suspect you’ll find fewer [del]deniers[/del] optimists in coastal flood zones than at higher elevations inland. Oh no oh no, moving to Miami is inhumane! Think of the children! Okay then, the impervious could plop trailers on the mud flats around temperate Humboldt Bay, sheltered from tsunamis and orcas. No hurricanes there. > [@](#): > > But thanks for the Wiki link to things I already knew! I could do no less. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2019, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/116 "2019-12-03T23:41:42Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > I read you quite well. I apparently too-subtly hinted that chumps feel themselves safe enough where they are. “There’s no global warming!” is safely proclaimed from, say, Boise or Nashville. I suspect you’ll find fewer [del]deniers[/del] optimists in coastal flood zones than at higher elevations inland. > > Oh no oh no, moving to Miami is inhumane! Think of the children! Okay then, the impervious could plop trailers on the mud flats around temperate Humboldt Bay, sheltered from tsunamis and orcas. No hurricanes there. > I could do no less. You could do a bit more to come up with something that would actually either demonstrate something or at least be amusing or humorous. Try harder. Here is a hint…suggesting someone move their families to a trailer park in a hurricane zone…a hurricane zone that was repeatedly hit by hurricanes long before global climate change was even a thing…is really, really stupid, and proves absolutely nothing to anyone. And it’s not even very clever, which is really the issue. Put a bit more effort in. Like, advocate that climate change deniers, if they REALLY have faith, should definitely not invest in any crazy schemes to make use of the fictitious north west passage once the sea ice starts to clear in the summer. I mean, the ice is getting thicker, after all, so that will never happen, and any sort of investment in that is bound to fail (because, you know, the ice in Greenland and other parts north is actually increasing in density, and it’s all a CT by the media to say it’s really melting. Fuck those polar bears too!!). Hell, maybe they should invest in land in the South West, as the glaciers crawling down from the north are going to inevitably render the northern part of the US (better known as ‘Canada’) uninhabitable soon(ish), so they need to get in on the boom early! If you need me to break down why my (silly) ideas would actually demonstrate something, while yours doesn’t, I’m always here for you man. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2019, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/117 "2019-12-04T21:07:46Z")
A relevant news article from today. Climate change impacts are accelerating. > **[Climate Change Is Accelerating, Bringing World ‘Dangerously Close’ to...](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/climate/climate-change-acceleration.html)** > > The acceleration climate change's effects have brought the world “dangerously close” to abrupt and irreversible changes, scientists warned.  And the source report. > **[World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en)** > > A specialized agency of the United Nations whose mandate covers weather, climate and water resources. The UN’s scientific voice on the state and behaviour of our atmosphere and climate. Not that anybody who should read it, will read it. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2019, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/118 "2019-12-04T22:01:53Z")
> [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](#): > > Speaking of the PNW, with the exception of the end of September, our fall season here in Eugene has been very dry. October was down by half, and so far this current November we’ve had exactly one day with any measurable precipitation. > > This isn’t something that really impacts us so far, and I’m sure a lot of us are actually glad to have a few more dry weeks; so many people do complain about rain. But it’s troubling to picture what this could mean if the whole region becomes dryer over the long term. For one thing, hydro power would become less viable and we would have to build fueled power plants, or buy such power from elsewhere in the grid. It’s disappointing to think it could be possible, without increasing our power consumption, to still ramp up our carbon footprint. It’s expected to be opposite, actually. The current model simulations are showing that the PNW is expected to get warmer and wetter with climate change, not drier and colder. The cause in the models is a long-term increase in storms bringing rain up from the south/central Pacific (storms known as “Pineapple Expresses” as they originate around Hawaii/central Pacific). The main issue is that the warm wet is expected to decrease PNW snowpack as a seasonal storage for water, so instead of relying on the gradual melting to keep rivers up to level throughout the spring/summer, best-case planning is that the region will need more reservoirs. So this year is an anomaly in the opposite direction. ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2019, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/119 "2019-12-05T01:02:25Z")
> [@squidfood](#): > > It’s expected to be opposite, actually. The current model simulations are showing that the PNW is expected to get warmer and wetter with climate change, not drier and colder. The cause in the models is a long-term increase in storms bringing rain up from the south/central Pacific (storms known as “Pineapple Expresses” as they originate around Hawaii/central Pacific). > > The main issue is that the warm wet is expected to decrease PNW snowpack as a seasonal storage for water, so instead of relying on the gradual melting to keep rivers up to level throughout the spring/summer, best-case planning is that the region will need more reservoirs. > \*\* > So this year is an anomaly in the opposite direction.\*\* Which is when the climate optimists chime in and start to question all the dire predictions. 10 of the previous 11 years have been drier than normal in Eugene, OR. You need to go back to 1996 before there are consecutive years that are above normal for rain fall. An anomaly in the opposite direction? It calls into question the models, doesn’t it? (pdf) [https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/eugclimate/pg67.pdf](https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/eugclimate/pg67.pdf) ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2019, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739/120 "2019-12-05T01:32:36Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > Which is when the climate optimists chime in and start to question all the dire predictions. > 10 of the previous 11 years have been drier than normal in Eugene, OR. You need to go back to 1996 before there are consecutive years that are above normal for rain fall. An anomaly in the opposite direction? It calls into question the models, doesn’t it? > > (pdf) [https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/eugclimate/pg67.pdf](https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/eugclimate/pg67.pdf) Not really. Climate has distinct stanzas that can last 10 to 40-50 years oscillating back and forth, while the background trend is slowly creeping in one direction. These shorter-scale (but multi-year) trends are present in climate modeling results and shouldn’t be mistaken for the background trend. (in fact, a major area of research is whether these cycles might get longer or shorter). I’m not familiar with enough with the Eugene area itself has some particular microclimate going on. I plotted the annual data, and I do see what looks like a step down in rainfall around 2000. It looks like there’s both upward and downward movement with a couple of inflection points (1940, 1960, and 2000 if I was eyeballing) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-climate-change-become-dire/843739.md?page=7)