# When will it be done tomorrow? \[U.S. Elections\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [November 1, 2004, 8:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-it-be-done-tomorrow-u-s-elections/272273 "2004-11-01T08:04:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Roches](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bc8723/32.png) [@Roches](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roches)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-it-be-done-tomorrow-u-s-elections/272273/21 "2004-11-01T23:26:10Z")
Most polls this time predict a closer outcome than the 2000 _results_. I haven’t heard a single comparison in all this deluge of media coverage between 2004 polls and 2000 _polls_. CNN’s 2000 election [archive](http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/) suggests that polls suggested that the race was very close until October 25, 2000; after that Bush gained an advantage (described as ‘7 points’ at one time). Polls predict the popular vote, so this prediction ended up being slightly wrong. A lead of even 3% translates to thousands of votes; even 1% is a large number of votes in a large state. Kennedy won in 1960 with an advantage of 0.17% in the popular vote, about 110,000 votes; Gore lost in 2000 despite having an advantage of 0.51% in the popular vote (about 450,000 votes). The polls may say the election will be very close, but they are wrong somehow (which is why there is a margin of error). Most likely it will not really be as close as 2000, and I think it’s possible there will be a clear result by midnight. A scenario where several important states are close enough that the results might be changed by arguing is statistically unlikely. But then, a scenario where several important states have to count absentee and provisional ballots before giving final results is possible. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-it-be-done-tomorrow-u-s-elections/272273.md?page=1)