# When will the Democrats decide for or against Obama for 2012? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 1, 2010, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245 "2010-09-01T11:45:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2010, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/61 "2010-09-18T22:48:32Z")
It is up to Obama. If he wants it, it is his. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2010, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/62 "2010-09-18T23:29:28Z")
> [@Susanann](#): > > > [@John\_Mace](#): > > > > f we are to assume, per the OP, that Obama is significantly down in the polls vs his GOP rival, the only person I see being able to take on Obama in a Democratic primary is HRC, and I really don’t think she will do it. ) > > HRC will not run against obama, because HRC would certainly lose. > > There is no way HRC could win without the black vote, and HRC cant win the black vote in any election against obama. obama has 98% approval from black voters. > > Furthermore, if somehow HRC stole the Democrat nomination away from obama, HRC would lose the general election because all the black voters would stay home and no Democrat can win the general election without black voters. > (HRC could run in 2012 only if obama dropped out, or HRC could run for vice-president to replace biden - that is all she can do) I don’t think this is right. She could definitely beat Obama in a primary run. She doesn’t need the black vote to do that. Hell, she could do it without one black vote. (Assuming Obama’s popularity continues to wane and Dems are looking for a change. :D) She’d have a harder time in the general, as a lot of blacks would be pissed at her and stay home. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2010, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/63 "2010-09-19T03:18:09Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > …I don’t think this is right. She could definitely beat Obama in a primary run. She doesn’t need the black vote to do that. Hell, she could do it without one black vote. (Assuming Obama’s popularity continues to wane and Dems are looking for a change. :D) She’d have a harder time in the general, as a lot of blacks would be pissed at her and stay home. You’re dreaming. If she couldn’t do it in 2007-08, when she was the prohibitive favorite with a lot of early backing from influential and elected black Democrats, and he was a relatively obscure first-term senator (notwithstanding his big speech at the '04 convention), then there’s no way in hell she’s taking the nomination from him when he’s the incumbent President and she’s been in his Cabinet, saying nice things about him up to now. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2010, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/64 "2010-09-19T03:23:39Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > > [@magellan01](#): > > > > …I don’t think this is right. She could definitely beat Obama in a primary run. She doesn’t need the black vote to do that. Hell, she could do it without one black vote. (Assuming Obama’s popularity continues to wane and Dems are looking for a change. :D) She’d have a harder time in the general, as a lot of blacks would be pissed at her and stay home. > > You’re dreaming. If she couldn’t do it in 2007-08, when she was the prohibitive favorite with a lot of early backing from influential and elected black Democrats, and he was a relatively obscure first-term senator (notwithstanding his big speech at the '04 convention), then there’s no way in hell she’s taking the nomination from him when he’s the incumbent President and she’s been in his Cabinet, saying nice things about him up to now. I think there’s a big difference between then and now. in 2008 Obama was selling Utopia. Now people see what his Utopia is and don’t like it. If things turn around and he gets his footing back, I agree that he’d be untouchable. But if the election were now, and Clinton had resigned a year ago, she could claim that she’s been disappointed with the way Obama has handled domestic issues. He’d keep the black vote, but now that his Utopia has been defined by reality, I can see Clinton winning in a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2010, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/65 "2010-09-19T03:53:18Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > in 2008 Obama was selling Utopia. Now people see what his Utopia is and don’t like it. I’m assuming you’re talking about his approval ratings (which really aren’t that low for a first-term president in the second year of his administration). Remember that, yes, his approval ratings have dropped on both the left and the right. But they’ve dropped on the left because some people feel that he _hasn’t done enough_ to bring about the things he talked about in his campaign, not because they don’t like the things he talked about in his campaign. The idea that anyone voting in Democratic primaries is actually going to vote for a primary challenger to Obama (other than the fringe who always vote for the Green candidate) is ludicrous. And the idea that those people are going to vote for the Republican in the general should really get anyone who admits to having that idea a mandatory appointment with a court-ordered psych evaluation. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2010, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/66 "2010-09-19T05:06:28Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > > [@magellan01](#): > > > > in 2008 Obama was selling Utopia. Now people see what his Utopia is and don’t like it. > > I’m assuming you’re talking about his approval ratings (which really aren’t that low for a first-term president in the second year of his administration). Remember that, yes, his approval ratings have dropped on both the left and the right. But they’ve dropped on the left because some people feel that he _hasn’t done enough_ to bring about the things he talked about in his campaign, not because they don’t like the things he talked about in his campaign. The idea that anyone voting in Democratic primaries is actually going to vote for a primary challenger to Obama (other than the fringe who always vote for the Green candidate) is ludicrous. And the idea that those people are going to vote for the Republican in the general should really get anyone who admits to having that idea a mandatory appointment with a court-ordered psych evaluation. Huh? I said nothing about anyone voting for a Republican. Anyone who sees Clinton’s name and think I was implying that she’d run as a Republican really needs to think things through a little better. But since you brought it up, Obama did get a lot of the Independent vote. He won’t be getting that again. The curtain has been pulled back on his version of Utopia. While those on the left might like it, the Independents, as well as some dems, don’t like it. I predict that his damage will be limited to one term. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2010, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/67 "2010-09-19T05:09:58Z")
Moderate independents are not going to vote for a right winger. The numbers of self-identified indies is currently inflated by teabaggers who don’t want to call themselves Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![E72521](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dbc845/32.png) [@E72521](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E72521)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2010, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/68 "2010-09-19T06:38:15Z")
After the election I remember hearing some pundit (can’t remember who it was) saying that the master plan is for Biden to drop out of the '12 race, to be replaced by HRC, as part of a deal the three made. Who knows? For the life of me, I don’t know why Obama would _want_ a second term. This is a guy who would take big heat for an increase in the number of heart attack deaths after he cured cancer. Remember, HRC had all the momentum up until her Florida and Michigan primary victories were vacated by the DNC. You don’t pull that off without cutting a deal. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2010, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/69 "2010-09-19T16:33:55Z")
> [@](#): > > For the life of me, I don’t know why Obama would want a second term. For that matter, I can’t understand why anyone would want a _first_ term as President. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2010, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/70 "2010-09-19T20:31:51Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > > [@Lone\_Star\_Blue](#): > > > > It was a 52.6% for Ford, 47.4% for Reagan split in the floor vote. I work in politics professionally. That is not a “comfortable” win in any situation, and for an incumbent (of sorts), that’s a disastrous result. > > Ford is unique in that he was never an _elected_ incumbent. This point needs to be emphasized. Any President who won a national campaign for his office less that 4 years previous still has a powerful organization that is mostly intact. He has people in every state that helped him get the requisite votes just 4 short years prior. Ford had none of that. While Reagan’s challenge was very impressive, it can’t be compared to an elected sitting President. Buchanan’s challenge to George H.W. was a flash in the pan. Kennedy probably did the best job of anyone in recent years. There you had a liberal which impressed the base of the party. The sitting President was wildly unpopular and perceived as horrifically ineffective. Teddy still didn’t come close. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2010, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245/71 "2010-09-30T20:31:22Z")
> [@E72521](#): > > …Remember, HRC had all the momentum up until her Florida and Michigan primary victories were vacated by the DNC. You don’t pull that off without cutting a deal. 😕 Humor. It is a difficult concept. Believe it or not, Gallup just did a what-if poll about Hillary taking on Barack: [http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/30/poll-obama-clinton-2012/](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/30/poll-obama-clinton-2012/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-democrats-decide-for-or-against-obama-for-2012/552245.md?page=3)