# when will the human race become extinct? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 3, 2011, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016 "2011-02-03T13:47:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/1 "2011-02-03T13:47:34Z")
Sorta like contemplating your own death, only on a much larger scale, of course. It’s hard to imagine the world going on without you, or your kind, but it will (IMO) surely happen, and the only question (IMO) is “When?” What’s your guess? For a bonus, add why we will go extinct. (poll to follow) ---
**Author:** ![LonesomePolecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a88e57/32.png) [@LonesomePolecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonesomePolecat)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/2 "2011-02-03T14:39:07Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > Sorta like contemplating your own death, only on a much larger scale, of course. It’s hard to imagine the world going on without you, or your kind, but it will (IMO) surely happen, and the only question (IMO) is “When?” What’s your guess? For a bonus, add why we will go extinct. (poll to follow) We could get wiped out by a stray asteroid any day. Or we might evolve into a different (and hopefully better) species as far removed from us as we are from Australopithecus, which would obviously take at least several thousand years. Maybe something like Captain Trips from Stephen King’s \*The Stand \*will do us in. It all depends on what scenario you consider most likely. I’m thinking a geological or astronomical disaster will be the Big One. It’ll be something like that asteroid mentioned earlier or that [supervolcano beneath Yellowstone National Park](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera), so IMHHHO it could be any day. ---
**Author:** ![Crowbar\_of\_Irony\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f08c70/32.png) [@Crowbar\_of\_Irony\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crowbar_of_Irony_3)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/3 "2011-02-03T14:48:22Z")
Stray asteroid besides, we already have enough weapons of mass destruction to doom ourselves if we want to. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/4 "2011-02-03T15:01:09Z")
I’m going with ‘over 10,000 years.’ Our species has lasted a good bit longer than that already; hell, it’s been that long since the first of our ancestors settled down to the farming life and started the first towns. I think the odds are tremendously against our being able to kill ourselves off as a species. We may be able to wipe out civilization as we know it, but almost surely, enough of us will survive to perpetuate the species. The survivors of a nuclear holocaust, overheated globe, or even asteroid strike might live as hunter-gatherers or in primitive agricultural communities for quite some time, but they’ll live, just like our ancestors did in equally difficult circumstances. ---
**Author:** ![Foggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foggy/32/1082_2.png) [@Foggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Foggy)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/5 "2011-02-03T15:30:28Z")
Saturday, August 4, 2018 at 11:19am EDT ---
**Author:** ![Alka\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c89c15/32.png) [@Alka\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alka_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/6 "2011-02-03T17:21:49Z")
I agree with RTFirefly. I think we might well survive as a species for tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Global extinction events are pretty rare, those really big asteroids only hit us every few million years on average. We’re actually far better placed to survive the next supervolcano eruption than we were the last one. We are geographically dispersed, and with access to a plethora of food sources. A major impact event, volcanic eruption, nuclear exchange or significant climate change - these are all things we could survive, although they would be absolutely devastating. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/7 "2011-02-03T18:16:15Z")
Humanity will not become extinct, barring some greater catastrophe that takes the entire biosphere down to bacteria level. Even if we have a dieoff, scattered populations will remain and rebuild, as with other creatures. Their descendants may become new species, though, and no longer be recognizable to us as humans. So I said, \>1000 years. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Malleus\_Incus\_Stapes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malleus_incus_stapes/32/3293_2.png) [@Malleus\_Incus\_Stapes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malleus_Incus_Stapes)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/8 "2011-02-03T19:33:54Z")
> [@Foggy](#): > > Saturday, August 4, 2018 at 11:19am EDT I wouldn’t, if I were you. Too much hassle to arrange, plus if you break your glasses there’ll be no one to fix them. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/9 "2011-02-03T19:55:31Z")
I chose ‘over 10,000 years’ as I think the prospect of an event massive enough to cause humanity’s extinction is extremely unlikely. More likely than not, we’ll continue to evolve until our resemblance to present-day humanity is vestigial at best, but I’m talking tens of millions of years, not 10,000. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Excellent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f19dbf/32.png) [@Mr.Excellent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Excellent)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/10 "2011-02-03T19:59:19Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > I chose ‘over 10,000 years’ as I think the prospect of an event massive enough to cause humanity’s extinction is extremely unlikely. More likely than not, we’ll continue to evolve until our resemblance to present-day humanity is vestigial at best, but I’m talking tens of millions of years, not 10,000. This. Humans can survive in pretty much any climate on Earth - it’s not difficult to kill a lot of us, but killing _all_ of us would be extraordinarily difficult. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/11 "2011-02-03T20:03:51Z")
I voted between 100-1000 years. I think that within that time we’ll either have altered ourselves into something else or we’ll have created something that exterminates us. The most likely alternatives to these two scenarios being that we smash our civilization and become primitives, or we engineer ourselves into something technically human but utterly stagnant. Say, a worldwide culture where everyone is genetically engineered to be a religious fanatic with brain implants to monitor their thoughts for heresy. As far as doing something that renders Earth uninhabitable, I figure that barring collapse or stagnation scenarios that’s likely inevitable; our descendants will survive in space. Planets are too fragile and interconnected; sufficiently high technology means one mistake or one act of malice can devastate them. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/12 "2011-02-03T20:09:50Z")
> [@Mr.Excellent](#): > > This. Humans can survive in pretty much any climate on Earth - it’s not difficult to kill a lot of us, but killing _all_ of us would be extraordinarily difficult. Slam an asteroid into the planet big enough to melt the surface. Release nanotech that eats all life. Create self replicating machines that mine the planet’s surface down to bedrock to make copies, or that just hunt us all down as competitors. Release some artificial organism that fills the environment with something toxic to us, like plants killed off most anaerobic life at the time they appeared with oxygen. The more powerful technology becomes, the more destroying humans or all life on Earth goes from “extraordinarily difficult” to “easy” to “can potentially be done by a high school student or random lunatic”. ---
**Author:** ![AshenLady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/94ad74/32.png) [@AshenLady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AshenLady)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/13 "2011-02-03T20:28:18Z")
[http://tunguska.sai.msu.ru/](http://tunguska.sai.msu.ru/) If this repeats itself in any similar way and hits Europe, USA, South America, then this might hasten the end. ---
**Author:** ![Agent\_Foxtrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc29f/32.png) [@Agent\_Foxtrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Agent_Foxtrot)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/14 "2011-02-03T21:51:54Z")
I seem to be the only one so far who voted “Never.” I did so because humans are far too adaptable to be undone by mass extinction. Furthermore, I read somewhere (I can’t remember if it was Asimov or Michio Kaku who wrote it) that once a species achieves a certain level of intelligence, that intelligence will never cease to exist. I am assuming humans in future evolutionary forms in my answer. We may develop two extra arms, a brain the volume of a toaster oven, and three extra sets of genitalia, but we’ll still be humans. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/15 "2011-02-03T21:59:04Z")
Yes, but surely at some point the Earth itself is going bye-bye. And I don’t think we humans have the sand to make it in outerspace. Colonizing moons or planets or whatever to support life where it isn’t meant to be supported just has the failure of entropy written all over it. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2011, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/16 "2011-02-04T01:48:50Z")
> [@Agent\_Foxtrot](#): > > I seem to be the only one so far who voted “Never.” I did so because humans are far too adaptable to be undone by mass extinction. Furthermore, I read somewhere (I can’t remember if it was Asimov or Michio Kaku who wrote it) that once a species achieves a certain level of intelligence, that intelligence will never cease to exist. Which is literary/philosophical theorizing, not anything supported by hard science AFAIK. But see the next comment. > [@](#): > > I am assuming humans in future evolutionary forms in my answer. We may develop two extra arms, a brain the volume of a toaster oven, and three extra sets of genitalia, but we’ll still be humans. But as species do not themselves evolve seamlessly into another species, but rather populations thereof differentiate and spin off from them, the eventual situation of a continuation of humanity could end up being that there comes the rise of Homo Whateveris, at the start of which H. sapiens may coexist with them for a while but eventually go the way of H. neanderthalensis. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2011, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/17 "2011-02-04T02:11:11Z")
Next Tuesday. Between 4 and 5pm CST. ---
**Author:** ![kevlaw](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kevlaw/32/2281_2.png) [@kevlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kevlaw)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2011, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/18 "2011-02-04T02:44:16Z")
1000 years is too soon, but i am almost certain that we’ll get taken out by bacteria or a virus. Despite the fact that all current animals evolved from something else, the vast majority of animals go exinct and don’t evolve into new species. ---
**Author:** ![LonesomePolecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a88e57/32.png) [@LonesomePolecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonesomePolecat)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2011, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/19 "2011-02-04T06:11:29Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > Next Tuesday. Between 4 and 5pm CST. Damn. That’s my bowling night. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2011, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016/20 "2011-02-04T06:39:39Z")
Assuming an asteroid doesn’t wipe out everything, I think we’ll be around until we evolve into something that no longer qualifies as Homo Sapiens. Of course, in that case we’ll probably have redefined ‘human’ to match whatever we’ve become, so perhaps that doesn’t count… [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/when-will-the-human-race-become-extinct/570016.md?page=2)