My impression among the admittedly lousy sample of people I know who download a lot of music is that they spent about the same amount of money on music as they spent before–they just have more music to show for it.
I can’t say that this is the general trend, but my best evidence for such would be that music sales have not suffered dramatically in the era of rampant file sharing. Yes, they are not as strong as in recent years, but that can be explained by a number of other factors, such as the poor economy and the lack of any big mega-hit albums. File sharing probably has some part in this, but it certainly isn’t a large one.
I agree very much with Sam Stone above. Bands with strong fan bases will be able to benefit greatly from the internet. Phish, for instance, is now making all its upcoming live shows avaialble on its web site for $9.95/show in MP3 format and $12.95/show in SHN. Bands like these will continue to benefit from fans who enjoy supporting their work, and will continue to grow via word of mouth, even if others are enjoying the music for free.
Bands who need exposure also stand to benefit. I have recently been turned on to the Flaming Lips, whose Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots I downloaded and loved. As a result, I bought that disc, The Soft Bulletin, and if they play within a 3-hour radius of me, I’ll be there. Even if only one out of twenty people who downloaded Yoshimi responded that way, they come out way ahead, when you consider that few if any of those twenty would have bought the album otherwise.
The big record companies will eventually get on the trolley with downloading, but I suspect their first mistake will be to charge too much. They want to be able to make just as much money as they would have in their traditional model, so they’ll try to gouge for hit singles and still charge enough that someone will have to pay $14 for a full album. I think Phish’s price of $12.95 for three CDs’ worth of music is a good price, and I’ll pay it rather than going to the trouble of downloading the music. If the prices are too steep, people will flock right back to the file sharing programs.
The model that I suspect would be the best–based on my above assertion that people are not spending much less on music, but are getting more–is a subscription service. I would pay a large monthly fee for a practically unlimited service like Napster or its current brethren. If you’re going to spend $50/month on music, then the industry as a whole makes the same amount of money if you buy a single CD for that or if you get possession of every single note recorded anywhere that month. A subscription service would allow payment to be made to the artists (in a manner similar to the current royalty systems) and would let the consumers keep that “unlimited” aspect that draws many to file sharing programs.
Sorry for the rambling–I have a lot to say on this subject.
Dr. J