Where are all the jobs?

No, economic growth is created by people doing innovative and creative things. Taxes are a drag on this, but tax cuts are not the engine of growth, and they are not the only variable that affects growth rates. Nor is it something that always has the same magnitude of effect.

For instance, there is a big difference between growth in the usage of resources, and growth in the resources themselves. If you buy the idea that recessions are caused by messed up signals that cause our economic capacity to be under utilized, then it is clear that you can achieve a very high rate of growth simply by re-employing people and opening up unused factories. That’s in part what tax cuts are meant to jumpstart: fixing the signals, as it were. But it doesn’t have the same effect when the economy is already at capacity: now it’s a whole nother ballgame (trying to get people to engage in more of certain activities than they do with current tax rates). A lot of pop-conservatives confuse the two: they look at recoveries that come at the end of recessions and think that this rate of growth can be sustained if only someone would follow whatever journalistic economic fad is popular at the moment. But it can’t be sustained, since a huge portion of it is simply people picking up unused capacity, which is far easier than creating wholly new capacity.

Getting low long term interest rates is a much more complex thing. It’s possible, for instance, that low taxes today is what is keeping interest rates high: because no one seriously believes that the government will cut spending, meaning that in the future it’s going to have to borrow quite a lot.

Agreed. I’m not sure what other people think that Bush should do to jumpstart an economy. Even if they believe that tax cuts + lots of spending (which is the classic Keynesian pathway that, ironically, is now the defacto policy of a community of people that largely reject Keynes) don’t work, what does? Tax increases?

If the unemployment rate is at a steady 4%, then within 18 months increases to 8.5%, and then decreases to 6% and holds, is that considered a recovery?
This is a real question, not a sneaky jab at Bush. I’m not going to vote for him no matter what he does… :wink:

mangeorge: my personal research shows that if the rate doesn’t begin to go down very soon - like in the next couple of months - the odds will tip in favor of the Democratic candidate, because past a certain point it becomes a matter of too little, too late.
JThunder: that must be an interesting universe you live in. Those figures show a better than 5 to 1 ratio in favor of China. By my criteria, admittedly subjective, Susanann wasn’t even engaging in hyperbole. I take that statement back.

You had better read Susanann’s postings more carefully, then. With respect to the Chinese, she specifically said,

Now, the Chinese might not spend as much on American goods as Americans spend on Chinese merchandise. They still buy American goods in very substantial quantities, according to your own statistics.

Now, if you and Susanann had claimed that they don’t buy as much from the USA as Americans buy from their country, I would certainly agree. That was not the claim being made, though. As we can see, the Chinese do indeed buy from the USA in substantial quantities.

Substantial is a relative, not an absolute, term.
As the quoted figures are quarterly, we’re looking at around 8 billion or so a year in purchases by China of U.S. goods. In the context of our economy, that’s not substantial.
Relative to purchases of Chinese goods by the U.S. that are five times larger, it’s also not substantial. So in terms of the trading relationship, it also fails, IMO.
You may choose to differ. 8 billion out of context sounds big. In either of these two contexts, it’s not.

I see that Susanann is back with her tariff wall defence to preserve American jobs and way of life.

Just to deal with that - tariff walls will not work. Ever. The world economy will simply bypass the U.S. altogether. The U.S. would not be able to support itself very long from a natural resource perspective, and without the benefit of cheaper imported goods, the cost of living would skyrocket. And if the U.S. were to make tariff exceptions for only the goods that it needs, I suspect very few countries would play along if they were not allowed to export other, cheaper-made goods and services to the U.S. as well. And U.S. would export even less than it does now (both from poor productivity and high costs as well as inevitable tariff walls in other countries).

Free trade is all about leveraging what you do well in order to compete on a global scale. So countries such as China, Indonesia, Taiwan, etc. do not have the same environmental/labour protections that the U.S. now has to deal with. However, back when the U.S. was a manufacturing economy neither did they. It allowed the U.S. to grow and now that is what many developing countries are starting to do. Almost like a timeshift.

So, what can the U.S. do to stay ahead in the world economy? Leverage what they have. So fields such as health care and related industries are important for an aging population. R&D in many fields will also continue to be big due to favourable patent and intellectual property regulations (where do all these productivity enhancing technologies come from). Lawyers focusing on international law will become more in demand. Since English is the current international language of business, the U.S. can “export” teachers to developing countries. All those super-cheap imported goods need to be transported around the U.S., so logistics become important. There is a range of industries and professions that are still important.

Definitely this causes hardships for those employed in industries and jobs that are cheaper to do overseas than locally. But this is not unique to this time in history. Technological changes have displaced jobs in the past and now it is international commerce. However, the U.S. has the advantage of starting from the most dominant position in the game.

Yet another shrill "I hate Bush"ism from Reeder. Gee, maybe he is responsible for the tooth fairy stiffing you back in 1974, too…

Where are the jobs? I was laid off from a tech company in 2002. The job market looked grim. You know what I did? I went out and bought alawn mower and a trimmer and started going door to door asking if I could cut grass.

I quickly outgrew my equipment and had to buy professional gear. Then I had to hire a few people to help me keep up with the work. I was making about $900 a week and was paying them about $450 each per week. We got a few commercial accounts and things really started booming!

As a result of contacts I made while looking for business I now have a job managing projects for a land developer. I made one of my workers a supervisor and he manages 3 crews of 3 people each. I am looking into affordable health care for my people now.

So I lost my job. Big deal. I then MADE my own job, and in the process created jobs for about 10 people…jobs which pay a decent wage and will soon come with benefits.

It is not Presidents or laws or government who create jobs. It is people who have the drive and ingenuity to get out there and make things happen. Never lose sight of that fact.

Crying into your emplyment reports and seeking to place blame has never created opportunity for anyone. Get out there and bust your ass if you are looking for a better life. If there is a recession, choose not to participate in it.

Amen. Ayn Rand was right about one thing: it’s people with gumption that are to credit with modern prosperity in places like America.

People who blame presidents of either party for short-term economic cycles have no understanding of just how little influence government really has over the economy in the short term.

Bush’s tax cuts in total are less than 100 billion dollars a year. The GDP is 10 trillion dollars a year. So even if all the tax cuts created pure economic growth, it would still only add 1% to GDP. But of course, the actual effect is much less, because all government spending or tax cuts are is a re-distribution of wealth that already exists. The differences are a matter of a few percentage points of the overal monetary change caused by the government.

In the long run, government policy has a large effect, because of multiplying effects. But over the space of a couple of years, the effects of government policy are going to be slight, unless the policies are extreme. But extreme policies can really only effect the economy in one direction - they can hurt it. It’s easy for a government to wreck an economy through tariffs, onerous regulations, or extremely bad monetary policy. Wrecking stuff is easy.

But there’s very little a government can do to improve a faltering economy, other than to eliminate previous decisions that hurt it. Because ultimately, the only way economies get better is for people to be more productive and create more things. And governments do not and can not create wealth.

We have a distorted view of how much control the government has, because politicians are always quick to accept credit for good things that happen, and equally quick to hurl blame at their opponents when the economy slows down. And partisans on both sides echo those sentiments.

Well Walt Disney is hiring here in Florida. You can get hired at a whopping $6.15 an hour!! Who can live on that? Big deal so you get 4 free tickets into the park!

I am currently stuck in a dead end job (been here 9 years) I have been looking daily for 6 months and have found zip, zilch, nada, nothing. It is really frustrating!

So maybe the government can get you a better job!

People who create their own opportunity and are willing to (here’s the kicker) work their ASS off will get ahead.

People who complain and wait for the government or fate to intervene will likely find themselves in the same situation years from now. And it is your choice.

Well I am trying to find a way to get to school and become and ER nurse without losing a kidney! There are 9,000 openings in the state now. I am willing to kick ass to get ahead!!

I doubt the government can help me unless they want to give me grant money for being a single mom of 5 kids.

You are living in God’s waiting room. Create a job for yourself that caters to retired people. House cleaning, lawn services, Pet grooming, driving Miss Daisy,… something. This is a consumer nich that has money and a need for services. You have a tremendous oportunity to start a side business that will surely outgrow your dead end job. Maybe you’ll be get to hire your boss when the old business folds.

The lack of compassion displayed by newcrasher is equaled only by his incisive rhetoric. Rather than badmouth those who have not experienced similar good fortune, your time might be better spent thanking your lucky stars.

The points made regarding labor flight to Asia are on the money. In the face of declining earnings and corporations’ slavish obeisance to the NYSE, item #1 on any CEO’s checklist for profit-making is cut costs!. Labor is the easiest expense to slash (everything from payrolls to benefits). The radical increase in labor productivity resulting from the hi-tech boom has made this step even more attractive. With Item #1 done, Big Money will rarely look deeper for the “real” cause of declining profits.

An observation about export of hi-tech service positions to India - double whammy attractive proposition to U.S. corps: 1) lower per-hour wages; 2) a better-educated and higher-motivated workforce. In the U.S., not only is the labor pool insufficiently trained (just check your county school system’s board scores), there is a distinct sense of entitlement among the educated elite that is at odds with the boot-strapping pioneer reputation newcrasher so eloquently identifies as the American ideal.

Also well-considered are the posts regarding “real” effect of public policy on the economy. Short-term is psychological and political, but as has been mentioned, long-term effects are in large part a sum of the short-term policy decisions. Don’t dismiss short-term, politically-motivated moves by a particular administration as “not real” in their impact on the economy. “Real” changes depending upon your frame of reference.

Indeed, government does not literally create jobs unless it opens hires more mail carriers. But what is being underestimated in these posts is the power government has over the environment in which corporations function. That environment can have a VERY real impact on job creation. OSHA standards and healthcare requirements are an excellent previously posted example. The government makes the regulations; in the current environment, corporations view those regulations as an impediment to reducing labor costs. Labor rights public policy has in this case had a very real impact on the reduction of jobs in a particular sector.

Am I saying there should be no U.S. labor standards? Christ, no - I like only working 40-wk with benefits. But when public policy ignores the consequences of government actions, we end up with things like two successive tax cuts resulting in a $470+billion deficit.

To those who claim that no administration really has a right to claim credit for growth and consequently no blame for decline, you need to re-read your history books. With the Clinton administration in particular, they inherited a tax increase levied by Bush I (which cost him reelection, mind you) and by demonstrating a commitment to services in exchange for maintaining that tax increase, they solidified the trust of the labor force in the administration. At the same time, an administration commitment to free trade and corporate tax incentives solidified the trust of business. Far from executing dollars-and-cents microeconomic meddling a la the Fed, the Clinton administration focused on the business environment factors over which it had real influence. In hindsight, the only blunder was that they trusted corporate America TOO much - that companies were responsible enough to self-regulate financially. What we got was Enron and WorldCom. It’s not unlike a teenager who asks “PLEASE, Mom, can I stay out until midnight”, and upon being granted permission promptly gets stoned and doesn’t show up until morning.

Bush II knows less about economics than my cat. His responses have been textbook conservate ideology. There will be no job creation in the environment this administration has fostered (in the U.S., that is). Come election time, we can best judge the incumbent by asking has he/she made it easier for people to achieve their goals, or harder. The answer on this one is pretty self-evident.

No thanks. I think I will stick to more worthwhile pursuits than thanking flaming balls of hydrogen for what is a result of my hard work. And I know compassion is in liberal vogue, but you cannot “care” a person into a better situation.

Its hard work.

Thats it.