# Where does the "15%" mark come from for Independent candidates? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 11, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-15-mark-come-from-for-independent-candidates/765712 "2016-09-11T21:15:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Barack\_Obama](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/dc4da7/32.png) [@Barack\_Obama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barack_Obama)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-15-mark-come-from-for-independent-candidates/765712/1 "2016-09-11T21:15:12Z")
I know it’s in polls, but what polls? Is voting for Gary Johnson or Jill a worthless vote? I’ve always been confused on how the independent party works, especially in the presidential races. Now it seems I’m going to vote for an independent, but I don’t know how I guess. Also I should point out this is my first general election I’ve voted in, same goes for the primaries. So I’m totally new to the whole operation, all I know is the independents need a 15% voter turnout in polls. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2016, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-15-mark-come-from-for-independent-candidates/765712/2 "2016-09-11T21:25:51Z")
There’s nothing official about these debates. The major parties and the media get together to make up the rules. The major parties obviously want a high threshold for anyone else to join in. And it has an effect on the polling as well, knowing that candidates won’t be at the threshold for the debate will lower the responses for them. The decision to limit candidates to an 11% rating in selected polls is arbitrary. It’s GQ, I don’t want to make this sound like a political opinion, but the term ‘debate’ is being used for something on the low end of the debate scale. These are group interviews, and the moderators become participants themselves as can be seen by the discussion of their effect before and afterwards. This may be what people want to see, but these are far from the kind of debates Lincoln and Douglas participated in. ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2016, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-15-mark-come-from-for-independent-candidates/765712/3 "2016-09-11T21:26:39Z")
Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are not independent. They are the nominees for very real but somewhat fringe parties (Libertarian and the Green Party respectively). You can have true Independent candidates that are not affiliated with any party and some even win races at the local and state level but not usually at the Federal level. There is nothing in the Constitution at all about political parties (many of the Founding Fathers actively opposed them). You don’t have to belong to one to run for any office but it really helps with fundraising and overall organization especially for the federal races which are really just a series of coordinated state races. The 15% threshold is what is currently needed to be allowed into some debates. There is nothing special about that level of support either. It isn’t law and it can be changed at any time by the people running the debate. Political parties are private organizations and the debates are just media events. ---
**Author:** ![AskNott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asknott/32/5790_2.png) [@AskNott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AskNott)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2016, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-15-mark-come-from-for-independent-candidates/765712/4 "2016-09-11T22:05:59Z")
The polls are done by telephoning a random sample of Americans, and asking them all the same set of questions. Participants are asked which party they usually vote for, what party they claim, and their gender. If the sample contains a lot more men than women, for example, the number of calls with the bigger group is pared down. Yes, they ask about the third-party candidates, and the responses show in the results. You ask if a vote for Johnson or Stein is wasted, that depends on what you mean by wasted. Johnson and Stein votes will be counted, along with the major candidates, and the results will be published. In some states, a solid total for a losing 3rd party affects that party’s difficulty in getting on the ballot. Aside from that, a vote for a 3rd party is a vote subtracted from the votes available to the major candidates. Like Nader and Perot, if a 3rd party campaign really ends up getting, say, 15%, it could tilt the overall result. There are still a lot of folks who blame Nader and Perot for their candidate’s loss. That’s all I know about it, and maybe more than you wanted to read. ---
**Author:** ![SmartAlecCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SmartAlecCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAlecCat)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2016, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-15-mark-come-from-for-independent-candidates/765712/5 "2016-09-11T22:35:41Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > There’s nothing official about these debates. The major parties and the media get together to make up the rules. Really? I know it isn’t official, but I thought that for the presidential and vice-presidential debates, it turned over to the independent [Commission on Presidential Debates](http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=about-cpd). > [@](#): > > The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) was established in 1987 to ensure that debates, as a permanent part of every general election, provide the best possible information to viewers and listeners. Its primary purpose is to sponsor and produce debates for the United States presidential and vice presidential candidates and to undertake research and educational activities relating to the debates. The organization, which is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) corporation, sponsored all the presidential debates in 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. ---
**Author:** ![SmartAlecCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SmartAlecCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAlecCat)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2016, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-15-mark-come-from-for-independent-candidates/765712/6 "2016-09-11T22:39:34Z")
The CPD also posted their [Format for 2016 General Election Debates](http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=2016debates), which includes this: > [@](#): > > In the fall of 2015, the CPD announced the dates and venues and its 2016 Nonpartisan Candidate Selection Criteria. Under the criteria, in addition to being constitutionally eligible, candidates must: > > Appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College. > Have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations’ most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination. ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2016, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-15-mark-come-from-for-independent-candidates/765712/7 "2016-09-11T22:40:34Z")
> [@SmartAlecCat](#): > > Really? I know it isn’t official, but I thought that for the presidential and vice-presidential debates, it turned over to the independent [Commission on Presidential Debates](http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=about-cpd). That is still a private organization that makes their own rules. I think by “official”, we meant dictated by either federal law or the Constitution. Neither of those apply here. You just have a nonprofit group formed to set the rules for some debates. That isn’t very meaningful although it currently has some influence due to circumstance. The NRA, ACLU or even the PTA could do the same thing if they wanted to. ---
**Author:** ![friedo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8edcca/32.png) [@friedo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/friedo)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2016, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-15-mark-come-from-for-independent-candidates/765712/8 "2016-09-11T23:06:02Z")
> [@SmartAlecCat](#): > > Really? I know it isn’t official, but I thought that for the presidential and vice-presidential debates, it turned over to the independent [Commission on Presidential Debates](http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=about-cpd). “Independent” is a matter of degree. The CPD commissioners are appointed by the RNC and DNC leadership, so the organization is not exactly neutral with regard to minor parties. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2016, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-15-mark-come-from-for-independent-candidates/765712/9 "2016-09-11T23:38:00Z")
As a GQ answer [here is what the CPD says about where it came from](http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=overview): > [@](#): > > Why did CPD Select 15 Percent as the Polling Threshold for Inclusion in the Debates? The CPD first adopted the 15 percent level of support criterion in 2000. Its initial adoption, and its adoption in subsequent cycles, was preceded by careful study and reflects a number of considerations. It was the CPD’s judgment that the 15 percent threshold best balanced the goal of being sufficiently inclusive to invite those candidates considered to be among the leading candidates, without being so inclusive that invitations would be extended to candidates with only very modest levels of public support, thereby jeopardizing the voter education purposes of the debates. Notably, the League of Women Voters struck the balance in the same way. Fifteen percent was the figure used in the League of Women Voters’ 1980 selection criteria, which resulted in the inclusion of independent candidate John Anderson in one of the League’s debates. > > Prior to adopting the 15 percent standard, the CPD conducted its own analysis of the results of presidential elections over the modern era and concluded that a level of 15 percent support of the national electorate is achievable by a significant third party or independent candidate who captures the public’s interest. In making this determination, the CPD considered, in particular, the popular support achieved by George Wallace in 1968 (Mr. Wallace had achieved a level of support as high as 20 percent in pre-election polls from September 1968); by John Anderson in 1980 (Mr. Anderson’s support in various polls reached 15 percent when the League of Women Voters invited him to participate in one of its debates); and by Ross Perot in 1992 (Mr. Perot’s standing in 1992 polls at one time was close to 40 percent and exceeded that of the major party candidates, and he ultimately received 18.7 percent of the popular vote). > > The CPD’s nonpartisan candidate selection criteria and 15 percent threshold have been found by the FEC and the courts to comply with federal election law. The same is true for the earlier criteria CPD used in 1988, 1992 and 1996. Now qualifying for federal matching funds is another discussion completely. From the same document - no the CPD commissioners are NOT “appointed by the RNC and DNC leadership.” > [@](#): > > Who runs the CPD? The CPD is governed by an independent Board of Directors. The CPD Board presently is jointly chaired by Frank J. Fahrenkopf, Jr. and Michael D. McCurry. Mr. McCurry succeeded CPD co-founder Paul Kirk in 2009. Although at the time the CPD was formed, Messrs. Kirk and Fahrenkopf served, respectively, as chairmen of the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee, their terms ended in 1989. In the intervening 25-plus years, no sitting officer of either major party has had any affiliation with the CPD and the major parties have no role whatsoever in running CPD or setting its policies. In addition to the Co-Chairs, the current Board consists of the following distinguished Americans, all of whom volunteer their time to serve on the CPD Board: > > Howard G. Buffett, Chairman and CEO, The Howard G. Buffett Foundation > John C. Danforth, Former U.S. Senator > Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr., President, Purdue University > Charles Gibson, Former Anchor, ABC World News with Charles Gibson > John Griffen, Managing Director, Allen & Company LLC > Jane Harman, Director, President and CEO, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars > Antonia Hernandez, President and CEO, California Community Foundation > Reverend John I. Jenkins, President, University of Notre Dame > Jim Lehrer, Former Executive Editor and Anchor of the NewsHour on PBS > Newton N. Minow, Senior Counsel, Sidley Austin LLP > Richard D. Parsons, Senior Advisor, Providence Equity Partners LLC > Dorothy S. Ridings, Former President, the League of Women Voters and former President and CEO, Council on Foundations > Olympia Snowe, Former U.S. Senator > Shirley M. Tilghman, Former President, Princeton University