# Where does the Scottish Everendum stand? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 1, 2014, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026 "2014-12-01T12:53:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2014, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/641 "2014-12-22T19:49:15Z")
Ignoring concentration on the one election which the polls got wrong over two decades ago, and accepting that polls are generally accurate if repeated over a period of time and by different agencies, let us look at the latest poll. It indicates that Labour have had a negative bounce since electing a new leader and still have a commanding position in the polls a short five months before the general election. Labour facing electoral wipe out in Scotland as support for the SNP surges to record high Some 48% of Scottish voters are now planning to back the SNP in May Labour trailing on just 24%, with the Tories only 8 points behind on 16% The result would leave Labour with just four MPs – down from 40 today Read more: [Labour facing electoral wipe out in Scotland as support for the SNP surges | Daily Mail Online](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2883476/Labour-facing-electoral-wipe-Scotland-support-SNP-surges-record-high.html#ixzz3Meqxi2M3) Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2014, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/642 "2014-12-24T16:05:11Z")
[http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/alex-salmond-we-would-win-a-second-referendum-1-3639937](http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/alex-salmond-we-would-win-a-second-referendum-1-3639937) ALEX Salmond believes he may get a second chance to hold an independence referendum and next time he thinks a Yes vote would prevail. An English vote to take the UK out of the European Union if Scots vote to stay could be the “tipping point” that brings about another poll, he told The Times. Mr Salmond has previously said independence was a “once in a generation opportunity”, but the 59-year-old MSP now believes he will see independence within his lifetime. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2014, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/643 "2014-12-24T17:29:35Z")
He’s wrong. I already linked you to a poll that showed Scotts are only barely more Europhile than the UK in general and it wasn’t something the majority of Scotts thought should trigger another referendum. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2014, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/644 "2014-12-24T23:43:54Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > He’s wrong. I already linked you to a poll that showed Scotts are only barely more Europhile than the UK in general and it wasn’t something the majority of Scotts thought should trigger another referendum. Doesn’t really matter though, does it? All Salmond has is a hammer (a new referendum), therefore everything is going to look like a nail to him (and apparently **Pjen** ). ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2014, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/645 "2014-12-24T23:46:38Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > ALEX Salmond believes he may get a second chance to hold an independence referendum and next time he thinks a Yes vote would prevail. Well, there’s an unbiased source. (Two of them!) ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2014, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/646 "2014-12-25T00:31:40Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > He’s wrong. I already linked you to a poll that showed Scotts are only barely more Europhile than the UK in general and it wasn’t something the majority of Scotts thought should trigger another referendum. Pray, for the love of Santa, it’s “Scots”. :mad: Unless someone really was polling guys called Scott. ---
**Author:** ![PaulParkhead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@PaulParkhead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PaulParkhead)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2014, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/647 "2014-12-25T00:36:20Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Well, there’s an unbiased source. (Two of them!) _The Scotsman_ is a biased source? Maybe, I don’t know - I confess I don’t read it all that often. It came out in favour of a “No” vote a week or so before the referendum, though. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2014, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/648 "2014-12-25T00:37:58Z")
> [@PaulParkhead](#): > > _The Scotsman_ is a biased source? Maybe, I don’t know - I confess I don’t read it all that often. It came out in favour of a “No” vote a week or so before the referendum, though. Alex Salmond and **pjen** are my sources. ---
**Author:** ![cowen70](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9de053/32.png) [@cowen70](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cowen70)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2014, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/649 "2014-12-25T00:40:28Z")
Scots in a super devolved state have everything they could ever really want from independence bar the egotistical need to be able to say independent. No one will vote for that risk for basically no reward, and now its gone negative once it will again based on those things. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2014, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/650 "2014-12-25T01:06:05Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Pray, for the love of Santa, it’s “Scots”. :mad: Unless someone really was polling guys called Scott. What if they’re polling the guys who make Scotts lawncare products? ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2014, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/651 "2014-12-25T01:16:30Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > What if they’re polling the guys who make Scotts lawncare products? I’m sure that poll would be particularly revealing. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2014, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/652 "2014-12-26T23:29:22Z")
A further poll to be published in Saturday’s Guardian reinforces the previous four polls indicating a Labour collapse and SNP ascendancy in May. > **[Labour set for a bloodbath in Scotland in general election, poll says](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/26/labour-bloodbath-scotland-general-election-2015-snp-westminster)** > > Traditional Labour heartlands turning to SNP, which could win 45 of 59 Scottish Westminster seats, Guardian/ICM survey finds ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2014, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/653 "2014-12-27T02:13:20Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > A further poll to be published in Saturday’s Guardian reinforces the previous four polls indicating a Labour collapse and SNP ascendancy in May. > > [Labour set for a bloodbath in Scotland in general election, poll says | Scotland | The Guardian](http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/26/labour-bloodbath-scotland-general-election-2015-snp-westminster) How about you tell me if that has a riding by riding breakdown before I waste a single more second clicking one of your links. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2014, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/654 "2014-12-27T02:33:31Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > How about you tell me if that has a riding by riding breakdown before I waste a single more second clicking one of your links. They are called constituencies in the UK, hth. Looks like a very small sample per constituency, so who knows. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2014, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/655 "2014-12-27T08:46:50Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > How about you tell me if that has a riding by riding breakdown before I waste a single more second clicking one of your links. If you bother to read the article (from the leading left wing broadsheet) you will find a detailed analysis of its general and specific cfindings from one of the leading British psephologists. In this he confirms the national results as being consistent over a period of time with a Labour rout and suggests that although the sample per constituency (riding) is too small to make specific predictions, the trend is for the more solid labour constituencies to have a greater swing to SNP than average, suggesting that the rout could be somewhat worse than the average suggests. These are not random amateur polls. This is the fourth or fifth major poll since September to suggest that the SNP have replaced Labour as the majority party in Scotland. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/656 "2015-01-01T11:46:27Z")
The latest thinking from the SNP is to avoid a call for outright independence in the next parliament elected in 2016, but to set up a “National Conversation” in the form of a Commission to consider the future state of Scotland’s governance, with the intention of putting this to a national vote after 2021 with a multiple choice referendum ranging from status quo to independence through devomax to home rule. Interesting times. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/657 "2015-01-01T12:23:28Z")
Lol. Taking another play from the failed Quebecois playbook. Soft sell for a while. Eventual the role ght conditions will be there for the Yes vote. Sure. Go for it. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/658 "2015-01-01T13:50:46Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > The latest thinking from the SNP is to avoid a call for outright independence in the next parliament elected in 2016, but to set up a “National Conversation” in the form of a Commission to consider the future state of Scotland’s governance, with the intention of putting this to a national vote after 2021 with a multiple choice referendum ranging from status quo to independence through devomax to home rule. Interesting times. Seems the SNP is not as certain as you are that another referendum will result in a vote for independence. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/659 "2015-01-01T14:04:37Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Seems the SNP is not as certain as you are that another referendum will result in a vote for independence. The thinking is to assess the full situation and to allow sentiment to continue to solidify. The polls are quite clear that there is currently a small majority for independence and a large one for considerably more devolution than currently on offer. If after two elections of nationalist governments at Holyrood and intransigence from Westminster, and consistent polls indicate a wish to revisit the situation, 2022 would be a possibility, with an eight year gap making it seem a reasonable time lapse. Such a situation would make it very difficult for Westminster not to cooperate… ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/660 "2015-01-01T14:10:50Z")
The best thing that could happen to the pro-Union camp would be two terms of SNP “government” in Scotland. By the way, in what reality is 8 years a generation? As all sides agreed to be bound by the result for that long, remember? Couldn’t be that the SNP are adding to their track record of being utterly full of shit, surely? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026.md?page=32) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026.md?page=34)