# Where does the Scottish Everendum stand? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 1, 2014, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026 "2014-12-01T12:53:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 37
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/721 "2015-01-06T13:38:24Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Lots of fog and flak, but no-one seems to want to talk about Labour’s offer to fund the NHS in Scotland by the English mansion tax, or about Miliband’s gentle retreat over disarmament. Let the gentle wooing continue! As a Tory, I’m delighted that Miliband is doing something that, if it becomes widely known, will cost him shitloads of votes in England, further split the vote between Labour and the SNP in Scotland, and make both parties irrelevant come the election. Honestly, I couldn’t have picked a better Labour leader had I been given the chance. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/722 "2015-01-06T13:41:23Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > But maybe people who are not died in the wool tories consider other factors then mere national income. > > Money is not everything, and I expect that many Scots feel that if there was a financial downside to independence, that might be worth considering. > > That does not make them fools, merely means that they value matters differently to you. > > I am beginning to wonder whether you are an inexperienced youth as such moral certitude and pigheadedness are rarely found in people of more years and experience. So, you accept that Scotland would be worse off if independent? That’s a start. Choosing to vote for reasons other than financial is fine, but the SNP lying to its voters that they’d be better off isn’t. People who believe them are either ignorant or foolish. As for “moral certitude and pigheadedness”, I’m at best the runner up for those in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/723 "2015-01-06T13:46:56Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > False, as has been repeatedly cited in all these threads. Cites, I should add, that mostly date from before the massive fall in oil prices last year. You have little awareness of history Oil Prices since devolution adjusted for inflation 1998 $17 1999 $23 2000 $38 2001 $31 2002 $30 2003 $36 2004 $47 2005 $60 2006 $68 2007 $73 2008 $100 2009 $59 2010 $77 2011 $91 2012 $89 2013 $92 2014 $89 Currently Saudi is putting the squeeze on Iran and US Shale- we shall see how long that lasts. But current low prices affect long term investment rather than current revenue- once you have swallowed capital costs, the oil cost being pumped is not affected by the market value- it becomes necessary to continue pumping to recoup historic capital costs. I would be surprised if oil stays at its current level much beyond the fall of next year. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/724 "2015-01-06T13:48:38Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > What “land grab”? The oil belongs to the UK, and as Scotland voted against independence they’ll remain that way. > > . Until they vote for independence in future. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/725 "2015-01-06T13:49:24Z")
What do those numbers even mean? The price of oil has varied massively over the last month alone. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/726 "2015-01-06T13:49:53Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > As a Tory, I’m delighted that Miliband is doing something that, if it becomes widely known, will cost him shitloads of votes in England, further split the vote between Labour and the SNP in Scotland, and make both parties irrelevant come the election. Honestly, I couldn’t have picked a better Labour leader had I been given the chance. We shall see. You may need to revisit this prediction. Let us consider the polls now that he has said it. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/727 "2015-01-06T13:51:51Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > So, you accept that Scotland would be worse off if independent? That’s a start. Choosing to vote for reasons other than financial is fine, but the SNP lying to its voters that they’d be better off isn’t. People who believe them are either ignorant or foolish. > > As for “moral certitude and pigheadedness”, I’m at best the runner up for those in this thread. Straw Man; I did not say that. You do not seem to deal in hypotheticals, possibilities, and such. You are very closed minded and shuttered to the nuances of predicting the future. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/728 "2015-01-06T13:53:29Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > What do those numbers even mean? The price of oil has varied massively over the last month alone. What it means is that the price of oil has varied considerably over time, and predicting that it will now hit an all time low and stay there is just tilting at windmills. If anyone could predict oil prices they would make a fortune in oil futures. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/729 "2015-01-06T13:54:00Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Until they vote for independence in future. If they vote for independence, there will be a negotiated settlement which will include the future of any UK land or assets that Scotland wishes to control. Unless there’s any major changes, that will include all the oil in what would become Scottish waters, but at least theoretically everything would be up for grabs at the negotiations. It’s not, despite your claims to the contrary, legally impossible for Scotland to sign away the rights to that oil upon independence, although I can’t see any reason why it would. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/730 "2015-01-06T13:57:09Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > What do those numbers even mean? The price of oil has varied massively over the last month alone. Dunno, but oil prices are currently around $50 dollars a barrel, not $89 as in her cite… ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/731 "2015-01-06T13:58:42Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > What do those numbers even mean? The price of oil has varied massively over the last month alone. The problem is one of using graphs with false origins. If you graph the value of oil from 2008 it shows a direct decline from $100 to 50 a barrel. If you graph it from 1998 it shows a gradual climb from 1998 from $17 to close to the recent average price in 2008, then a sudden rise to $100 and a slow fall back to its 2008 value. No-one can predict where it will go next. ---
**Author:** ![Arch\_Trout](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@Arch\_Trout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arch_Trout)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/732 "2015-01-06T14:00:20Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Acceptance that Scotland is far better off in the Union You got that - you do realise that the No vote got 55%? > [@Steophan](#): > > an end to the idea that nationalists belong in Parliament Not allowing parties in parliament that have been democratically elected is not a great idea. > [@Steophan](#): > > , and end to the idea of “Scottish Oil” at least while Scotland remains in the Union… That would do for starters. If you stop saying ‘English money’ in relation to Barnett then I’ll stop saying ‘Scottish oil’ (not that I personally do such a thing) > [@Steophan](#): > > Voting Conservative would help as well, instead of voting for parties that make things worse, but I suspect that’s a non-starter. Behave yourself on this one, ok you’re a Tory but that doesn’t mean any country, region, constituency or person is somehow deserving of your ire because they aren’t is ridiculous. Almost all politics is subjective and just because you perceive things to be worse doesn’t necessarily make it so. > [@Steophan](#): > > I don’t object to the idea of taxes on rich Londoners going to _any_ poorer parts of the UK, I have a problem with a devolved Scottish government using English money to give their portion of the NHS more funding than the English parts get, then criticising the Westminster government that allows them to do it. So we aren’t allowed to spend the money we get on what we want and should be so grateful we get it that all criticism of Westminster should henceforth cease because, you know…they let us spend some money. That’s exactly the kind of attitude that pushed the yes vote up to 45%. > [@Steophan](#): > > If Scotland wants to spend more on services, it should use its tax-raising powers to do so. Which it hasn’t - as I’ve repeatedly mentioned when talking about how the Scottish Parliament refuses to use its devolved powers, and you’ve pretended doesn’t happen. Why? Because you said so? We can’t spend the money we are allocated on what we want because it offends your sensibilites. You realise that every single policy passed in the devolved parliament is Scotland using it’s devolved powers. What you really mean is we are not using all the powers available to us. But we should because…you said so. > [@Steophan](#): > > No, I don’t want Scotland to leave the Union, as it would be bad for each side. But I don’t think paying it to remain is acceptable, either. What you really need to do then is start your own thread about the Barnett formula and start laying into Northern Ireland as well then because that’s where your real problem lies. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/733 "2015-01-06T14:01:49Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > We shall see. You may need to revisit this prediction. Let us consider the polls now that he has said it. Why are you constantly more interested in polls than in actual election results (or referendum results)? Or for that matter, than actual politics? ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/734 "2015-01-06T14:01:54Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Dunno, but oil prices are currently around $50 dollars a barrel, not $89 as in her cite… Which reinforces the point that the figures have a high range over time. Currently there is an unholy alliance by Saudi Arabia to punish Iran and by the USA to punish Russia. How long this will last is anyone’s guess. In the short term the rvenue stream is far more stable than the pumphead price as these are calculated on volume rather than price at the beginning of each licensing period. Who knows where the market will be when the next set of licences are issued. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/735 "2015-01-06T14:03:04Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Why are you constantly more interested in polls than in actual election results (or referendum results)? Or for that matter, than actual politics? Because polls are more accurate than personal opinion which tends to be politically skewed. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/736 "2015-01-06T14:05:49Z")
> [@Arch\_Trout](#): > > You got that - you do realise that the No vote got 55%? > Not allowing parties in parliament that have been democratically elected is not a great idea. > If you stop saying ‘English money’ in relation to Barnett then I’ll stop saying ‘Scottish oil’ (not that I personally do such a thing) > Behave yourself on this one, ok you’re a Tory but that doesn’t mean any country, region, constituency or person is somehow deserving of your ire because they aren’t is ridiculous. > Almost all politics is subjective and just because you perceive things to be worse doesn’t necessarily make it so. > So we aren’t allowed to spend the money we get on what we want and should be so grateful we get it that all criticism of Westminster should henceforth cease because, you know…they let us spend some money. > That’s exactly the kind of attitude that pushed the yes vote up to 45%. > Why? Because you said so? > We can’t spend the money we are allocated on what we want because it offends your sensibilites. > You realise that every single policy passed in the devolved parliament is Scotland using it’s devolved powers. > What you really mean is we are not using all the powers available to us. > But we should because…you said so. > > What you really need to do then is start your own thread about the Barnett formula and start laying into Northern Ireland as well then because that’s where your real problem lies. I suspect that one of Steophan’s problems is a total lack of real knowledge about Scotland, especially how it differs considerably from England in so many matters. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/737 "2015-01-06T14:07:10Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Because polls are more accurate than personal opinion which tends to be politically skewed. I need to go have another look at my friend’s Labour 92 victory mug. ---
**Author:** ![Arch\_Trout](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@Arch\_Trout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arch_Trout)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/738 "2015-01-06T14:07:31Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > But the money doesn’t get “distributed accordingly” within the Union, does it? Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland receive lump sums under Barnett regardless of need which is why we have oddities like Scotland receiving £1600 per capita in public spending more than in England, the home nation with the least amount of public money spent on it. If the money was distributed accordingly, English public spending would go up and Scottish and Northern Irish public spending would go down. Semantics - accordingly is using the Barnett which is what happens. As soon as all that money gets divied up stop thinking of it as English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish money. At that point it’s UK money. If you are truly a unionist that’s how you will see it, UK money, instead of grudgingly giving Northern Ireland more money than they earned. How dare they expect to be in a union and get helped by other members of the union. That was English money and they should be grateful for it. After all the English are much loved and brought nothing but good things to Northern Ireland. You’ll note I’m using Northern Ireland because your problem is with the barnett formula so this is really the wrong topic to be debating it as it’s not just a Scottish issue and this thread is about Scotland. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/739 "2015-01-06T14:07:47Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > But under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act it would take a vote of 2/3 of the Commons to cause a further election unless there was a substantive vote of no confidence. So long as Labour has more than 1/3 of the seats or retains minimal confidence, it could remain in government as a minority party for the whole term, agreeing supply on a bill by bill basis. > > This means that in order to dissolve parliament early, the Conservatives would have to have a full majority in the house of commons for a no confidence motion and would have to convince the SNP and LibDems to vote with them. Previously a simple majority would have been adequate. It could also simply be a matter of the Commons being unwilling to support any combination of government at all, and after a certain period of time, there would be a Dissolution by default, regardless of that 2/3 requirement. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/740 "2015-01-06T14:10:41Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > I suspect that one of Steophan’s problems is a total lack of real knowledge about Scotland, especially how it differs considerably from England in so many matters. I know, I just don’t see the relevance of those differences to why it’s right for Scotland to get so much more than it’s share of money and representation. I also know the differences are pretty tiny, the only country more similar to England than Scotland is possibly Wales. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026.md?page=36) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026.md?page=38)