# Where does the Scottish Everendum stand? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 1, 2014, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026 "2014-12-01T12:53:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2014, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/101 "2014-12-06T20:03:42Z")
> **[Scottish independence: Where might Trident go?](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28009977)** > > Scottish ministers say the UK's nuclear deterrent will be banished from Scotland if it becomes independent. Where might it go? The UK government says all Royal Navy submarines will be based at Faslane by 2017 - supporting 8,000 jobs - and there are are no plans to move the nuclear deterrent. Defence Secretary Philip Hammond has said any alternative solution would come at huge cost and take decades. Problems with Devonport: Devonport Dockyard in Plymouth - the biggest private-sector employer in Devon and Cornwall - is the main nuclear repair and refuelling facility for the Royal Navy. It is also home to the Trafalgar-class submarines, which will be moved to Faslane by 2017. The port’s size - the largest naval base in Western Europe covers more than 650 acres and has 15 dry docks, 25 tidal berths and five basins - and familiarity with submarines has led some to believe Devonport might be the best option for an alternative location for Trident. However, the Royal United Services Institute’s Malcolm Chalmers says even though - time and expense allowing - Devonport might work as an alternative to Faslane, it couldn’t recreate Coulport. Coulport possesses a huge floating dock where warheads are placed inside the missiles, 3km from the small village of Garelochhead on one side and the small village of Ardentinny on the other, Westminster’s Scottish Affairs Committee heard in 2012. Any new warhead storage facility would need similar distances from population centres for loading and offloading warheads from missiles. Problems with Milford haven: In 2012 Wales’s Labour First Minister Carwyn Jones said the UK’s nuclear-armed submarines and jobs associated with it would be “more than welcome” in Wales if they left Scotland. The remark that was met with an angry response from Plaid Cymru politicians and activists who cited safety risks. When the original shortlist was drawn up for basing Trident’s predecessor Polaris in the 1960s, Milford Haven in Pembrokeshire was one of the candidates. The Welsh site is an attractive option because it is a natural deep-water port. But In the 1960s Esso had just established an oil refinery in the town and the MoD decided the two were incompatible on safety grounds, according to William Walker, one of the authors of Uncharted Waters: The UK Nuclear Weapons and the Scottish Question. “The dangers of handling and storing high explosives near major oil facilities ruled it out. Imagine a big submarine colliding with a tanker. It’s common sense - even if there is a low probability, the consequences could be horrific,” he says. Nowadays the town’s economic and industrial output makes that line of thinking even more tricky. The haven is home to two liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities and handles 30% of the UK’s gas supply. It also hosts two oil refineries and will soon have a new power station. Dr Nick Ritchie, a lecturer in international security at the University of York, says it’s inconceivable that the MoD would allow LNG plants and oil refineries to stay open if Trident was relocated to Milford Haven. And he says closing the refineries and petrochemical plants would have “a pretty significant economic impact”. Problems with Barrow in Furness, France and the USA are also considered. All involve major disruption and expense. And the article concludes with an analysis of the possibility of it staying in Scotland: The Scottish government says it is committed to removing Trident if it becomes independent and maintains it would not negotiate with the UK in exchange for concessions on other issues such as national debt and currency union (the UK government has ruled out the latter anyway). But Ron Smith says there would be considerable pressure within an independent Scotland to do a deal and create a type of Sevastopol military enclave as Ukraine did, before Russia took over the Crimea. The UK would be under pressure to do a deal too because even if it was feasible to replace the Clyde naval bases - “and it’s not clear that it is” - it would be incredibly expensive and time consuming, he says. But Ritchie thinks the scenario is unlikely. “The SNP has staked its political credibility on getting rid of Trident - it’s unlikely to concede. The MoD would also find it very uncomfortable to have the UK’s nuclear deterrent in another country, even if it was a sovereign UK territory,” he says. Earlier this year, First Minister Alex Salmond, leader of the SNP, ruled out the prospect of a “Cyprus-style” leaseback scheme. Chalmers says this is a distraction. “A sovereign base area would be UK territory, but a foreign base is different. The SNP has already conceded four years of basing to 2020, so there is no point of principle in extending this for some more years,” he says. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2014, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/102 "2014-12-06T22:28:41Z")
Alex Salmond is announcing that he is standing for a Westminster seat. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/103 "2014-12-07T00:14:28Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Alex Salmond is announcing that he is standing for a Westminster seat. To what purpose? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/104 "2014-12-07T00:20:19Z")
I’m confused, **Pjen**. I was sure the vote had already been held, and the No side won. Did the media get that wrong somehow? ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/105 "2014-12-07T00:24:09Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > To what purpose? To be the King over the water (again), and get on BBC shows. The man has an ego that needs stroked. Nicola Sturgeon _will_ be pleased. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/106 "2014-12-07T00:30:14Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Defence Secretary Philip Hammond has said any alternative solution would come at huge cost and take decades. He would say that, wouldn’t he? But Devon and Cornwall would be very glad of those 8000 jobs. Fowey, for instance, is just along the coast from Devonport and has a depth of 6-7 metres before any dredging. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/107 "2014-12-07T00:39:29Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Fowey, for instance, is just along the coast from Devonport and has a depth of 6-7 metres before any dredging. The big subs need at least double that. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/108 "2014-12-07T02:11:33Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > 2/ Would the EU allow England to secede and allow an accommodation for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales either as associates with special status like Switzerland and Norway, or as a full member in some manner? The EU would, in that scenario, in all likelihood, say “Settle your status in regards to the UK and then we can talk about you joining.”. The EU’s not going to allow Scotland, NI, and Wales as member states in the EU while they’re still part of the UK. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/109 "2014-12-07T07:44:23Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > To what purpose? To continue to argue for independence as he is entitled to do. I suspect that he will take over as leader of the party in Westminster allowing the current leader to return to Holyrood as deputy first minister. He will quite possibly be a major player in forming a government in Westminster after the May election. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/110 "2014-12-07T07:49:07Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I’m confused, **Pjen**. I was sure the vote had already been held, and the No side won. Did the media get that wrong somehow? Since the referendum there has been a sea change in public opinion in Scotland. Many people voted NO on the understanding that major powers would shift north. The Smith Commission was a mouse whimpering compared with what was expected. Opinion polls show support for considerably more devolution than has been allowed so far. This feeling is unlikely to abate and should there be a further referedum, people will be less likely to believe tall tales of Home Rule. The SNP are highly likely to be returned to power in 2016 on a manifesto of a further referendum if the sovereign people of Scotland desire one. It will be difficult to refuse if there is a substantial public opinion that the devolution offered was insufficient and the people had elected a government on a manifesto with such a referendum promised. It is called democracy. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/111 "2014-12-07T07:51:27Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > He would say that, wouldn’t he? But Devon and Cornwall would be very glad of those 8000 jobs. Fowey, for instance, is just along the coast from Devonport and has a depth of 6-7 metres before any dredging. As the article points out, Fowey could replace Coulport for storage of warheads, but Devonport is the only place for the repair and maintenance done at Faslane. Fowey is too far from Devonport to meet the criteria for storage and Devonport is too built up for a storage facility. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 7:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/112 "2014-12-07T07:54:34Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > The EU would, in that scenario, in all likelihood, say “Settle your status in regards to the UK and then we can talk about you joining.”. The EU’s not going to allow Scotland, NI, and Wales as member states in the EU while they’re still part of the UK. Stranger things happen in politics. If the UK affronts the EU by withdrawing but during the process areas of the UK decide that they would be better off as independent entities in the EU than part of the UK outside the EU the situation might change. A decision to leave the EU would certainly stimulate any campaign for independence for Scotland. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/113 "2014-12-07T08:06:01Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > To what purpose? In his own words: “My preferred option would be to see Labour win but fall around 20 to 25 seats short of a working majority,” he said. “I would want the SNP to be able to force Labour to agree not to renew Trident in Scotland, devolve the setting of the minimum wage to Holyrood and agree to give Scotland some responsibility for its own immigration policy.” He added that he knew “how to make the pips squeak” if a minority Conservative government was formed, vowing to demand concessions for SNP policies. > **[Alex Salmond set to stand for seat in Westminster](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/former-snp-leader-alex-salmond-set-to-stand-for-seat-in-westminster-9908428.html)** > > Ex-First Minister of Scotland is expected to stand for election in Gordon constituency ---
**Author:** ![amanset](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/114 "2014-12-07T11:45:14Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > It will be difficult to refuse if there is a substantial public opinion that the devolution offered was insufficient and the people had elected a government on a manifesto with such a referendum promised. Why? Also, a manifesto with such a promise is a perfect example of an election pledge that they cannot possibly guarantee. It is basically lying. Personally, what I find weird is that there are people out there that seem to think major constitutional change happens overnight with next to no planning. Cool your boots, Rome wasn’t built in a day etc etc. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/115 "2014-12-07T12:01:08Z")
> [@amanset](#): > > Why? > > Also, a manifesto with such a promise is a perfect example of an election pledge that they cannot possibly guarantee. It is basically lying. > > Personally, what I find weird is that there are people out there that seem to think major constitutional change happens overnight with next to no planning. Cool your boots, Rome wasn’t built in a day etc etc. Although Westminster has reserved the right to call a future referendum, it has said that such a decision must reflect the will of the Scottish people. If opinion polls and a government elected on a manifesto with a referendum desired is elected (it need only say that the new government will ask Westminster for a further referendum, not say that it has the power to call one) then such a referendum will happen- going against the obvious views of the Scottish people would be unthinkable and probably lead to considerable dissension. No one thinks that Independence is easy. We just think that it is democratically necessary for such a decision to be made by the sovereign people. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/116 "2014-12-07T19:04:08Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > A bit like Jersey Guernsey and the Isle of Man? Nope, they’re all tiny economies with tiny populations and some of them are not in a currency union at all (the Isle of Man has a separate currency that’s pegged to the Pound Sterling), nothing at all similar to the likes of Scotland with a large economy and a large population relative to the UK, especially given Salmond’s demands for seats on the MPC. As I said, I’d rather my tax double to pay for Trident’s repositioning than allow Scotland to share a currency with the UK. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/117 "2014-12-07T19:16:55Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Since the referendum there has been a sea change in public opinion in Scotland. The polls show that, do they? > [@](#): > > The SNP are highly likely to be returned to power in 2016 on a manifesto of a further referendum if the sovereign people of Scotland desire one. Which would be determined how, by another referendum? > [@](#): > > It is called democracy. So is accepting the results of free and fair elections. ---
**Author:** ![amanset](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/118 "2014-12-07T20:55:05Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Although Westminster has reserved the right to call a future referendum, it has said that such a decision must reflect the will of the Scottish people. If opinion polls and a government elected on a manifesto with a referendum desired is elected (it need only say that the new government will ask Westminster for a further referendum, not say that it has the power to call one) then such a referendum will happen- going against the obvious views of the Scottish people would be unthinkable and probably lead to considerable dissension. Let’s just say I disagree and frankly you’ve got as much to back your argument up as I have. > [@Pjen](#): > > No one thinks that Independence is easy. We just think that it is democratically necessary for such a decision to be made by the sovereign people. And, weirdly, no one claimed it either. The point was that you seem to think devolved power - and hence major constitutional change - can happen in a matter of weeks. But let’s face it, no matter how long it takes you’ll complain. It’s just a reason for you to moan and it is getting quite tiresome. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/119 "2014-12-07T21:17:27Z")
@ElvisL1ves: The polls do seem to say that, though characterizing it as a “sea change” seems a little hyperbolic. This link is a blog but it links to polls referenced: [http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/11/panelbase-labour-independence](http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/11/panelbase-labour-independence) > [@](#): > > Not only that, this poll also confirms the message of therecent YouGov pollthat there has been a swing in favour of independence since September 18th. After excluding 8% who said Don’t Know or Wouldn’t Vote, slightly more (51%) said that they would vote Yes in response to the question, ’Knowing what you know now, if the referendum was tomorrow how would you vote’, than said they would vote No (49%). Crucially, in contrast to the YouGov poll, which also found a majority (52%) saying they would now vote Yes, this poll was weighted (heavily) so that how people said they voted in September reflected the real result. Thus in contrast to the YouGov poll, the net movement from No to Yes registered in this poll would, if it were reflected in the population as a whole, (just) be enough However, Pjen’s focus on how Scotland would not tolerate leaving the EU if the UK decided to seems also a little overly hopeful. > [@](#): > > Much of that speculation has focused on what might happen should Scotland vote in any future referendum to stay in the EU, while the UK as a whole votes to leave. However, this poll suggests that such speculation should not be pushed too far. First, it finds only a narrow majority in favour of staying in the EU (by 41% to 38%), a result not wholly dissimilar to that ofmany a recent UK-wide poll of European voting intentions– and a reminder that Scotland is only somewhat more Europhile than the UK as a whole. Meanwhile, only a narrow majority (by 45% to 41%) agree that ‘a second referendum would be justified, so that Scotland is not forced out of the EU against its will’. ---
**Author:** ![Arch\_Trout](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@Arch\_Trout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arch_Trout)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2014, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026/120 "2014-12-07T22:35:22Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > As I said, I’d rather my tax double to pay for Trident’s repositioning than allow Scotland to share a currency with the UK. I’m guessing you don’t pay much tax then, as double not very much can still be not very much. However if you actually work then you’d rather pay 40% VAT, 40% basic rate and 80% higher rate tax? As well as double NI. Colour me sceptical but I don’t believe you. If only we could call that bluff…… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-does-the-scottish-everendum-stand/706026.md?page=7)