# Where is that predicted Stock Market CRASH? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 27, 2018, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330 "2018-08-27T01:32:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/41 "2018-08-28T07:10:17Z")
> [@Plumbkrazy](#): > > Why would people predict a market crash after the election? probably because it’s a regular occurrence when Republicans are in control. That includes 2009, right after President Gilligan left office. > > The fact that the crash hasn’t happened yet means nothing. Give Trump some time and he’ll make a mess of things. He fucks up everything he gets involved in. He would’ve flubbed the election too, if half of Americans weren’t dumb as shit. Things were going great under Bush - until they didn’t. If you’ve read or seen “The Big Short” you’ll know that even though they nailed the housing bubble and how it was going to blow up, they almost lost their shirts because it took longer than expected to blow up. Everyone will say this time is different and the market will rise for the foreseeable future until the trigger happens and the market crashes, which is when everyone will say how the weakness was obvious. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2019, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/42 "2019-01-02T22:27:21Z")
Didn’t want to start a new thread, so figured this one would do. Apple halted trading today. Why? Because their numbers are so bad they have to adjust their guidance. Why are their numbers bad? Because China, and trade wars. > **[Letter from Tim Cook to Apple investors](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/01/letter-from-tim-cook-to-apple-investors/)** > [@](#): > > While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China. In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad. > China’s economy began to slow in the second half of 2018. The government-reported GDP growth during the September quarter was the second lowest in the last 25 years. **We believe the economic environment in China has been further impacted by rising trade tensions with the United States**. As the climate of mounting uncertainty weighed on financial markets, the effects appeared to reach consumers as well, with traffic to our retail stores and our channel partners in China declining as the quarter progressed. And market data has shown that the contraction in Greater China’s smartphone market has been particularly sharp. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2019, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/43 "2019-01-02T23:08:15Z")
AAPL is done 7% in after hours trading. Tomorrow will be interesting since they are clearly not the only ones affected. S&P, Dow and Nasdaq all down for the year. And way down since their peaks. Not a crash yet, but we’ll see. I called it, didn’t I? 😛 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2019, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/44 "2019-01-02T23:11:19Z")
Yup. Every analyst half worth their weight in salt is now looking for other companies which are heavily exposed to the China market, putting their short orders in as we speak. Yeah, tomorrow ought to be interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2019, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/45 "2019-01-02T23:21:02Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > I called it, didn’t I? 😛 Did you? > [@Voyager](#): > > …the market will rise for the foreseeable future until the trigger happens and the market crashes… That seems like an unfalsifiable statement to me. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2019, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/46 "2019-01-03T00:36:28Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > Did you? > > That seems like an unfalsifiable statement to me. You must have missed the 😛 . Still, much of what I read is by optimists who are sure that the economy is so strong that nothing bad is going to happen - and who didn’t expect a drop this year. Is trade the trigger? We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2019, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/47 "2019-01-03T01:56:12Z")
> [@Mangosteen](#): > > If people had listened to these jokers and bailed out of the Stock Markets they would have lost out on a 30%-plus surge in their financial wealth At this point it’s really more 10% and falling every day, isn’t it? Still riding the Trump Train to victory, or are you having second thoughts? I know, I know, losses don’t matter when it’s your guy in the Oval, we just pump our fists when we’re winning. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2019, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/48 "2019-01-03T15:49:51Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > At this point it’s really more 10% and falling every day, isn’t it? Still riding the Trump Train to victory, or are you having second thoughts? > > I know, I know, losses don’t matter when it’s your guy in the Oval, we just pump our fists when we’re winning. I only lost about $200,000 out of my 401 last year. Not too shabby! MAGA!!! :rolleyes: I don’t retire for over a decade so I’ll continue to buy in. One guy can’t do that much damage, can he? :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2019, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/49 "2019-01-03T17:14:06Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > I only lost about $200,000 out of my 401 last year. Not too shabby! MAGA!!! :rolleyes: > > I don’t retire for over a decade so I’ll continue to buy in. One guy can’t do that much damage, can he? :eek: The total return on the S&P 500 in 2018 was around -5% (reinvesting dividends) so you either invest in something much riskier, did some trading that didn’t work out, or congrats on the $4+mil 401k. 🙂 Mixing politics and investing is a bad idea. Everyone is entitled to their political opinions. But the chance of a typical retail investor successfully applying their politics to decide what the market is going do is slim. The public political news and views one uses to do that are already known by everyone else, they are already reflected in market prices. If somebody has a secret ‘in’ to top decision makers, or eg. they will get tipped off when Trump is _really_ going around the bend, before the market finds out, then OK, assuming legal and ethical to use that info. Otherwise it’s better to forget your politics if you can when making investment decisions (as far as market up/down, if you really want to invest in a ‘socially responsible fund’ due to politics that’s OK if it’s not excluding too much and upending your diversification). ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2019, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/50 "2019-01-03T17:43:06Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > The total return on the S&P 500 in 2018 was around -5% (reinvesting dividends) so you either invest in something much riskier, did some trading that didn’t work out, or congrats on the $4+mil 401k. 🙂 I definitely don’t have $4+mil but I do have over $1Mill. And I misspoke: My rate of return for the 4th quarter was -14.7% (down about $200K), not year. For the year, I’m down -9.15% with a loss of $125K. I am on the higher risk side since I do have a mix of international, large, mid, small index funds, real estate, bonds and guaranteed. However, like I said, I’m not worried. I’m still buying and when they all go back up, I’ll be fine. I do plan to rebalance a bit this year and start moving to safer forms. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2019, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/51 "2019-01-03T18:09:27Z")
Following are the average annual gains (Feb-to-Feb) in the S&P-500 index for each 4-year period since Grant. Since red/blue are used as party colors AND as bear/bull stock market codes, it seemed fun to note that the worst 4-year decline and four of the five 4-year (red) declines since Wilson occurred when the President was also red. Grant…-10.26% Hayes…16.58% Arthur…-8.26% Cleveland…4.94% Harrison…0.98% Cleveland…-6.67% McKinley…14.76% Roosevelt…4.96% Roosevelt…0.00% Taft…0.48% Wilson…0.17% Wilson…-5.97% Harding…10.88% Coolidge…23.71% Hoover…-29.28% Roosevelt…30.47% Roosevelt…-14.04% Roosevelt…8.96% Truman…1.45% Truman…15.03% Eisenhower…13.87% Eisenhower…9.36% Kennedy…8.69% Johnson…4.00% Nixon…2.99% Ford…-3.02% Carter…6.18% Reagan…8.95% Reagan…12.91% Bush…10.71% Clinton…15.95% Clinton…13.09% Bush…-2.10% Bush…-9.49% Obama…17.07% Obama…11.41% **Trump** (incomp.)…3.15% Give the Orange President some credit: the stock index hasn’t fallen on his watch. Yet. > [@still less than one year into Trump's presidency -- who gets credit for the stock market uptick?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/still-less-than-one-year-into-trumps-presidency-who-gets-credit-for-the-stock-market-uptick/790487/13): > > The left really underestimates the drag regulations can impose on an economy. Under Obama, regulations had been ramping up steadily year after year, and in my opinion they have held back growth in the market, depressed confidence in the economy by investors and stunted small business startup rates. How’s that deregulation working out for all y’all? If the 14.5% average annual growth during Clinton’s 8 years and Obama’s 8 years show a “dragged” economy and growth “held back” I’ll eat your MAGA hat! ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2019, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/52 "2019-01-03T19:31:32Z")
The Right really overestimates the drag regulations impose upon an economy. Standardization, employee and customer protections, even to the basic setting of market rules, all of this and more contribute to the growth and stabilization of a country’s economy. ---
**Author:** ![Calatin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/439d5e/32.png) [@Calatin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Calatin)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2019, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/53 "2019-01-03T19:49:45Z")
The OP, much like Trump’s tweets from years ago, did not age well. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2019, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/54 "2019-01-04T15:59:16Z")
Lol, Fed Chair Powell says he’ll ignore it if Individual-1 [asks him to resign](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/jerome-powell-would-refuse-trump-resignation-request). _That_… an open fight between the Fed and the President… will bring stability to the markets, that’s for sure! ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2019, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330/55 "2019-01-04T16:30:28Z")
trump’s economic policies are pretty much the same as W’s\*, in spades. Expect the same result, in spades. \*Except where they’re not, of course. such as tariffs. And that’s hardly going to prove a positive. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-is-that-predicted-stock-market-crash/820330.md?page=2)