# Where will the next nuclear strike come from? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 25, 2013, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102 "2013-08-25T02:25:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2013, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/41 "2013-08-26T02:13:57Z")
> [@Battle\_Pope](#): > > Plus, if you’re the US and have been wrongly accused of using nukes once in a pre-emptive stike, would you be as ready to use them again to stop the N. Koreans? We don’t need (and I doubt we’d use) nukes to stop the Norks. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2013, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/42 "2013-08-26T04:42:49Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’d put ten bucks on it being the USA. I’ll join you in this bet. > [@Quartz](#): > > A British Prime Minister might survive (as PM) initiating a nuclear attack; he or she will not survive losing the Falklands. Or Gibraltar. Or any other territory. I had assumed this was intended as sarcasm, but if you’re serious it’s an absurd notion. That the British SLBM force would even retaliate in the event of the destruction of the British state isn’t a certainty, on entering office each PM writes [four letters of last resort](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letters_of_last_resort) giving orders to the SLBM commanders of what to do in the event that the British state has been destroyed by a nuclear attack. On leaving office, the letters are destroyed unopened. ---
**Author:** ![bldysabba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ecccb3/32.png) [@bldysabba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bldysabba)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2013, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/43 "2013-08-26T10:45:46Z")
FWIW, India and China have a No-first use policy for their nukes. ---
**Author:** ![aNewLeaf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@aNewLeaf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aNewLeaf)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2013, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/44 "2013-08-26T12:48:37Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > And it would be readily obvious via isotope ratios where the weapon material was produced. Nearly all American weapon-grade nuclear material was produced at the Savannah River site, and the isotope characteristics of material produced in those reactors are publically available. Ditto for most other nuclear-capable nations; we would easily be able to demonstrate if a weapon were sourced from Russia, China, France, Great Britain, or South Africa, and probably India and Pakistan, too. > > Stranger True in the sense that we could find the original source for the fissionable material. Less true that we could find out who set off a particular weapon. There’s no telling how many weapons or how much raw material has left the control of the former Soviet military, and I doubt that all US material is accounted for either. There’s a small but serious possibility of nuclear terrorism of some sort, ranging from a small dirty bomb to a real weapon deployed against a city. If that were to happen we might never be able to find out who was involved or where the device came from. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2013, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/45 "2013-08-26T16:17:01Z")
my prediction is Pakistan nuking India, and far less than 1 million dead in the first strike. ---
**Author:** ![IMfez](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/f07891/32.png) [@IMfez](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IMfez)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2013, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/46 "2013-08-26T18:24:21Z")
> [@IMfez](#): > > Organizations other than nations may also be included as options. Does anyone believe a non-nation will be the next attacker? I believe there have been many cases of stolen enriched radioactive materials in the past. My vote goes to Al Queda striking Israel. I believe a terrorist organization is relatively fearless compared to a nation, especially when carrying out attacks of this scale. ---
**Author:** ![aNewLeaf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@aNewLeaf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aNewLeaf)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2013, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/47 "2013-08-26T18:26:46Z")
A non-nation or a coup within a nation. As has been pointed out, it’s not a viable option for a rational leader to use as a first strike. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2013, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/48 "2013-08-26T21:53:04Z")
The most likely real world scenario for a nuclear attack is a nuclear armed country gets embroiled in a conventional war, and starts losing badly. Then the temptation mounts to use a nuke against either enemy military concentrations, or against enemy cities to force a cease-fire. The problem then is that even if you achieve your goal of smashing the enemy’s offensive capability, or they sign an armistice to avoid another city-buster, the enemy country is still there. The same correlation of forces that was causing your side to lose is still there. You’ve saved your country from the existential threat, but for how long? So the most likely nuclear attackers are Pakistan, if they got involved in a major war with India, or Israel, if large Arab forces cross into Israel and blast through Israel’s conventional defenses. ---
**Author:** ![Ike\_Witt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ike_witt/32/283_2.png) [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/49 "2013-08-27T00:13:58Z")
Does anyone still believe in the idea of tactical nuclear weapons? ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/50 "2013-08-27T00:45:56Z")
There are classes of nuclear weapons which have a field of effect and yield which are deemed “tactical” insofar as they are intended to be used in a battlefield context against conventional forces instead of strategic targets (military installations, manufacturing and distribution centers, urban populations for deterrence). However, in reality there is no such distinction between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons; once the taboo against the use of nuclear weapons is breached, even if just against troops, a progression of increasing nuclear response is almost guaranteed by two or more powers with effective nuclear parity, e.g. when your opponent can wipe out entire divisions with a single attack, why would you restrain yourself from responding in kind; and if you are to respond, would it not make sense not to simply attack the opposing troops but the offending nuclear systems and associated command and control? After that, escalation to a complete strategic nuclear exchange is highly probable, as has been demonstrated in many wargame simulations. Nuclear weapons are just far too powerful, and more to the point, require so little coordination and effort to use to be conflated with any kind of conventional arms attack. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/51 "2013-08-27T02:45:00Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > However, in reality there is no such distinction between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons; I thought the thinks launched from artillery in the 1950’s and 1960’s were intended to keep things limited. Perhaps they were intended as a last ditch effort until the B-58 Hustlers could arrive on target. ---
**Author:** ![aNewLeaf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@aNewLeaf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aNewLeaf)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/52 "2013-08-27T02:50:49Z")
> [@Ike\_Witt](#): > > Does anyone still believe in the idea of tactical nuclear weapons? The US Army has them and trains to use them. Actually popping one off seems unlikely, but they exist. ---
**Author:** ![Comander\_Joans](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b77776/32.png) [@Comander\_Joans](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Comander_Joans)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2013, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102/53 "2013-09-01T06:33:34Z")
Russia has thousands of compact nuclear tactical and artillery pieces which if used in a densely populated area could kill 100k+ - many of these weapons are stored in remote areas under sparse supervision. While it’s not in Russia’s interest to proliferate, many people of sufficient rank go months or even years without adequate pay. If the right acquaintances were made one or more of these weapons could and likely will fall off of a truck somewhere and into terrorist hands. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-will-the-next-nuclear-strike-come-from/667102.md?page=2)