# Where would South Africa be today if there'd been no Nelson Mandela? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 5, 2013, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613 "2013-12-05T22:57:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![WilyQuixote](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f9ae1b/32.png) [@WilyQuixote](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WilyQuixote)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2013, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/41 "2013-12-06T18:18:45Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Maybe it is verbied to discuss the impact a white man had but it really was F.W. de Klerk that had the greatest impact on ending apartheid so without Mandela apartheid would have still been over. Mandela’s impact was more of a figure of hope during imprisionment and as a very adroit diplomat in running the first post-apartheid government. The ending of apartheid cannot be attributed to one man, although FW de Klerk did play an important role. The road to South African democracy was a negotiated one, and for negotiations, you need at least two sides willing to sit down and talk. There is a reason why de Klerk and Mandela were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace prize. De Klerk ascended to power, knowing he would hand it over, knowing that the National Party would never again be a ruling party. This is an incredibly rare event in politics anywhere in the world and this fact is underappreciated. However, the man who was unjustly held in prison for 27 years and emerged with a message of reconciliation is going to held in higher regard then someone who was a part of that oppressive regime. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2013, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/42 "2013-12-06T18:22:41Z")
> [@WilyQuixote](#): > > The ending of apartheid cannot be attributed to one man, although FW de Klerk did play an important role. The road to South African democracy was a negotiated one, and for negotiations, you need at least two sides willing to sit down and talk. There is a reason why de Klerk and Mandela were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace prize. De Klerk ascended to power, knowing he would hand it over, knowing that the National Party would never again be a ruling party. This is an incredibly rare event in politics anywhere in the world and this fact is underappreciated. > > However, the man who was unjustly held in prison for 27 years and emerged with a message of reconciliation is going to held in higher regard then someone who was a part of that oppressive regime. I think de Klerk has gotten a lot of attention, as you say he did win the Nobel Prize. There is some evidence he engaged in some profiteering/cronyism as he was involved in the negotiations and handover of power which probably sullies his reputation a bit. I think both de Klerk and Mandela earned deserved accolades. But I think it’s notable when de Klerk held a white’s only referendum it was in favor of negotiations and an end to apartheid, and he was brought to power on that platform. So obviously the white electorate was ready for this to happen, so if not de Klerk it woudl have been another NP leader who stepped up to the plate. Mandela is more beatified by the public, but likewise I think if not for Mandela someone else from the ANC would have taken the role Mandela took. I think the same about MLK, there was going to be an MLK in the United States–but it didn’t _have_ to be MLK. There were other black civil rights leaders of a religious background preaching a very similar message, some earlier than he did. People fill voids, there was a void MLK stepped into that another similar leader would have stepped into. Someone like Malcolm X never would have filled that void, for example. Likewise someone would have filled Mandela’s spot if he had died years before in prison or etc. ---
**Author:** ![WilyQuixote](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f9ae1b/32.png) [@WilyQuixote](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WilyQuixote)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2013, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/43 "2013-12-06T18:24:55Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Would any of those be most likely to succeed Mandela as the leader of the ANC/movement? I’m guessing Mbeki, considering he did succeed Mandela, but maybe not since he was younger at the time. Cyril Ramaphosa. Memory is somewhat rusty, but he was the most likely candidate for deputy president but Mandela preferred Mbeki. (oversimplification, but read this quite a few years back - maybe **MrDibble** can expand or correct.) He left politics, shortly afterwards became a successful businessman, and recently returned to politics. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2013, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/44 "2013-12-06T18:27:11Z")
> [@WilyQuixote](#): > > I am referring to his many utterances as president. Such as…? > [@](#): > > His views on race also coloured (no pun intended) his perceptions on other issues such as Zimbabwe and Aids. This is not a man who could be a Mandela. I think his time in, and help from, Zimbabwe during the struggle coloured his perceptions there, not race. And AIDS? I don’t see the relevance? He was just listening to dumb (White!) advisers like Rasnick and Bialy - how was his AIDS denialism racialy-motivated? It’s not like it was mostly Whites who were suffering. > [@](#): > > Unlike Sisulu, Tambo, et al, we do not have to imagine what he would be like as President. The best thing that can be said about his tenure is that he is not as bad as the incumbent. …and he resigned, didn’t he? And he didn’t round up Whites and shoot them. Sounds like he made a piss-poor dictator to me. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2013, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/45 "2013-12-06T18:32:23Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > No, quite the opposite. The concept of a “great man of history” is someone who can change the course of history through their actions. If the conquest was a foregone conclusion then it would be something we had already been trending toward in any case and thus no singular man would have been responsible. This would have been akin to the Muslim conquest of Constantinople, which was coming one day or another regardless of the leader going after the Byzantines. > > We’re probably not as far apart on this issue as you would think. I believe most of history is explainable by large trends, in which even prominent individuals are only minor actors mostly wrapped up in their own circumstances. However I also believe there are _rarely_ men who do actually cause history to go in new and unexpected directions, against those trends and circumstances. William I was one of those, but there are others–William is just one of the most unambiguous. OK. While we disagree on the greatness of William, it’s also clear that you _don’t_ actually advocate the Great Man theory, which says that history is \*mostly \*the result of Great Men, not the existence of some Great Men here and there. So I agree we’re not so far off. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2013, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/46 "2013-12-06T18:35:01Z")
> [@WilyQuixote](#): > > Cyril Ramaphosa. Memory is somewhat rusty, but he was the most likely candidate for deputy president but Mandela preferred Mbeki. (oversimplification, but read this quite a few years back - maybe **MrDibble** can expand or correct.) I think it was largely that Cyril was much more a trade unionist than an ANC cadre, before '91. So he wasn’t “family” in the same way the son of Govan Mbeki was. ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2013, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/47 "2013-12-06T19:08:59Z")
Little Nemo: > [@](#): > > There have been a lot of successful revolutions in the world. But I can think of only two revolutionary leaders who did a successful job of building a stable democratic government afterwards: Washington and Mandela. David Ben-Gurion, perhaps? ---
**Author:** ![WilyQuixote](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f9ae1b/32.png) [@WilyQuixote](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WilyQuixote)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2013, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/48 "2013-12-06T19:26:44Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Such as…? Seriously? You were born and bred in South Africa and you really need examples as to statements by Mbeki regarding race that are questionable, controversial or not well-received by a sizable portion of the white community? Are you genuinely asking this question in good faith? > [@](#): > > I think his time in, and help from, Zimbabwe during the struggle coloured his perceptions there, not race. Race was not the sole factor, but it was a contributing factor. Mugabe played the race/Britain/West card and Mbeki either bought it or was happy to play along. Again, as a reasonably informed South African, do you really require cites? > [@](#): > > And AIDS? I don’t see the relevance? He was just listening to dumb (White!) advisers like Rasnick and Bialy - how was his AIDS denialism racialy-motivated? Mbeki was obsessed by the notion that whites perceived blacks as “rampant sexual beasts.” You do recall that when (white) Charlene Smith understandably attacked his view on Aids he called her a racist in an ANC today newsletter? There are many similar statements which I know you are aware of. Again race was not the sole factor but was a contributing factor. Again, this has been commented on immensely, both in scholarly articles and by commentators across the political spectrum. This sounds like a man who has a hangup about black sexuality and the relationship of Aids. When you deny the efficacy of live-saving drugs at least in part due to racial hangups, you do not get a leader that is of the calibre of Mandela. What point are you actually trying to make with your faux naivete? I’ve stated previously that Mbeki is prone to making racial statements that are frequently poorly received by the white community and that his race views have affected how he has handled a number of controversial issues. This is hardly news or even particularly controversial. Are you seriously disputing either of these points? > [@](#): > > …and he resigned, didn’t he? Yes. So? > [@](#): > > And he didn’t round up Whites and shoot them. Sounds like he made a piss-poor dictator to me. Nice strawman. Would you mind pointing out where I said anything along those lines? Seriously, what argument do you think I am making? ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2013, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/49 "2013-12-07T02:07:11Z")
South Africa today would be exactly like Hill Valley in the alternate 1985 in Back To The Future II. My post is my cite. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2013, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/50 "2013-12-07T10:35:47Z")
> [@WilyQuixote](#): > > Seriously? You were born and bred in South Africa and you really need examples as to statements by Mbeki regarding race that are questionable, controversial or not well-received by a sizable portion of the white community? Yes to the first one, no to the second two, because as you should know, there’s a sizeable remnant to whom just the notion of BEE is the most controversial thing ever. If _that’s_ what you meant, then this is a pointless conversation. But you seemed to be saying Mbeki said racist things, so I’d like to know what those were, because I can’t recall anything (and I’m no fan of the man). > [@](#): > > Are you genuinely asking this question in good faith? Yes > [@](#): > > Race was not the sole factor, but it was a contributing factor. Mugabe played the race/Britain/West card and Mbeki either bought it or was happy to play along. Again, as a reasonably informed South African, do you really require cites? Yes. And I don’t agree that the race card is automatically the same thing as the anti-colonialist card. I want examples of the former, not the latter. > [@](#): > > Mbeki was obsessed by the notion that whites perceived blacks as “rampant sexual beasts.” You do recall that when (white) Charlene Smith understandably attacked his view on Aids he called her a racist in an ANC today newsletter? There are many similar statements which I know you are aware of. Calling your political opponents racists isn’t the same thing as making racist statements about White people. I’m looking for examples of the latter. > [@](#): > > This sounds like a man who has a hangup about black sexuality and the relationship of Aids. When you deny the efficacy of live-saving drugs at least in part due to racial hangups, you do not get a leader that is of the calibre of Mandela. No one said he was of the same calibre. But he was a negotiator, not a fighter. You just have to read his biog to see that. And that was my original point - he’s in the ranks of those who would have, absent Mandela, gone for negotiated settlement rather than continued civil war, and he would have made an OK first President if he had to. > [@](#): > > What point are you actually trying to make with your faux naivete? If you’re trying to accuse me of lying or trolling, please do so in the Pit. > [@](#): > > I’ve stated previously that Mbeki is prone to making racial statements that are frequently poorly received by the white community and that his race views have affected how he has handled a number of controversial issues. This is hardly news or even particularly controversial. Are you seriously disputing either of these points? I’m asking for a cite. See there on top, where it says “Great Debates”? That means, if you say he made these statements, you can quote him doing so. In fact, given that you say he was “prone to making” them, I expect \*multiple \*cites. > [@](#): > > Yes. So? So it points to him being willing to do what it takes for the good of the country, not just his own interests. That says “Reconciliatory” to me - you know, the original question? > [@](#): > > Nice strawman. Would you mind pointing out where I said anything along those lines? Seriously, what argument do you think I am making? Sorry, that did seem straw-mannish. I was just taking your “Mbeki evidenced anti-White views” way past any point you raised. I apologize. ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2013, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/51 "2013-12-07T17:09:17Z")
If we are looking for great men and women who altered the course of history, I would offer up Napoleon. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2013, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/52 "2013-12-08T01:37:14Z")
> [@bob\_2](#): > > If we are looking for great men and women who altered the course of history, I would offer up Napoleon. Take Napoleon – please! ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/53 "2013-12-09T14:36:52Z")
Was there an equivalent to the Tea Party in the South African government under Mandela? Were there legislators from conservative white districts who ran on the platform of “Holy shit, we’ve got a black president! We can’t give him any cooperation!” My limited understanding is that most white South Africans realized that black majority rule was inevitable. But were there (and are there) extremist holdouts? ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/54 "2013-12-09T15:26:36Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Was there an equivalent to the Tea Party in the South African government under Mandela? Were there legislators from conservative white districts who ran on the platform of “Holy shit, we’ve got a black president! We can’t give him any cooperation!” My limited understanding is that most white South Africans realized that black majority rule was inevitable. But were there (and are there) extremist holdouts? I don’t see how apartheid hold outs have anything to do with the Tea Party. The Tea Party movement wasn’t started based on racial opposition to the President nor is that a part of any mainstream Tea Party rhetoric. Just because some members of the Tea Party are racist that doesn’t really change the fact, so your asking if there were “tea party” type apartheid holdouts basically makes no sense at all. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/55 "2013-12-09T15:34:20Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Was there an equivalent to the Tea Party in the South African government under Mandela? Were there legislators from conservative white districts who ran on the platform of “Holy shit, we’ve got a black president! We can’t give him any cooperation!” My limited understanding is that most white South Africans realized that black majority rule was inevitable. But were there (and are there) extremist holdouts? There are these guys: [Freedom Front](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Front_Plus) but they’re not quite as extreme as all that. Most of the [hardcore](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afrikaner_Weerstandsbeweging) [people](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afrikaner_Volksfront) just dropped out of the party political process entirely. Or, you know,opted out of [the whole country](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orania,_Northern_Cape). ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/56 "2013-12-09T15:40:01Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > The Tea Party movement wasn’t started based on racial opposition to the President nor is that a part of any mainstream Tea Party rhetoric. Whatever you say. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/57 "2013-12-09T15:59:20Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Whatever you say. If you have no counteragument then you agree with me, thanks. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/58 "2013-12-09T17:30:23Z")
I think that SA may well have broken up-into black, boer, and “English” enclaves. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/59 "2013-12-09T18:28:11Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I don’t see how apartheid hold outs have anything to do with the Tea Party. The Tea Party movement wasn’t started based on racial opposition to the President nor is that a part of any mainstream Tea Party rhetoric. Just because some members of the Tea Party are racist that doesn’t really change the fact, so your asking if there were “tea party” type apartheid holdouts basically makes no sense at all. Not to hijack the thread, but racism is an integral part of the Tea Party. Just go to Facebook and look at any of the Tea Party pages. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2013, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613/60 "2013-12-09T18:43:32Z")
Okay, I randomly looked up a few Tea Party pages, just picking them randomly. They didn’t seem to be advocating any sort of racism. Do I win something, and do you think maybe we could talk about Nelson Mandela, who was not American and neither a Democrat nor a Republican? Not everything is about the United States; there is a world, and issues, outside of the current American zeitgeist, hard though it might be for you to believe. South Africa is not the USA, and its issues can, parties, and personalities are not little versions of American ones. The problems Nelson Mandela faced, dealt with, and in some cases did a lot of solve are not ones Barack Obama faces. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/where-would-south-africa-be-today-if-thered-been-no-nelson-mandela/675613.md?page=4)