# Which 2020 Democrat CAN defeat Trump? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 19, 2018, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218 "2018-07-19T18:35:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/381 "2018-08-05T17:14:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Bitch all you want Not the best choice of words in this context, friend. šŸ˜‰ ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/382 "2018-08-05T17:17:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Yeah, but I predict Democrats win in 2020, soā€¦ šŸ˜ƒ Well now youā€™ve threatened the very fabric of our universe. None of us will survive the night, Nov. 3, 2020. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/383 "2018-08-05T17:47:08Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Your political predictions are worthless. \ > Donā€™t expect your posts and predictions to be taken seriously as anything more than pro-Trump nonsense, and pro-Trump predictions, since thatā€™s what you post, regardless of the facts. Yet in this case, perhaps by random chance, he has a point. Very often some speaking spots are given to the emerging next round talent of a party. It is a try out of sorts to see if any can really connect given that big soap box. Obama hit it out of the park back in '04 and on the strength of that leapfrogged into a run earlier than many, including his greatest fans, would have expected. Few of the speakers who would be future contenders in 2016 hit more than a safe single. Biden was a solid double but not exactly _emerging_ back bench talent. Michelle Obama was a stand up triple but is neither interested nor a good choice to run at this point in time. (Iā€™d love to see her run and serve in a different office, maybe governor, at some point, and then maybe ā€¦) Warren simply lacks any charisma at all. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2018, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/384 "2018-08-05T20:42:41Z")
Warren is poison for the 2020 election. Talk about ticking off all the WRONG boxes. If she is the nominee, Trump will have the time of his life destroying her. Klobuchar canā€™t get it done. Thereā€™s the name thing: Iā€™m serious about this, confusing/weird names are hard to market and the election is one huge marketing campaign. Sheā€™s also a woman and I think the American electorate is still too sexist to elect a woman at this point. Maybe it will change in time. Women have been elected to the highest office in many other countries, but America is America. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/385 "2018-08-06T05:15:42Z")
I donā€™t think itā€™ll be Amy Klobuchar after all, because she may be a little too moderate and a little too dirty with corporate money for where the progressive movement is going. I donā€™t think the left will trust her. But no, sheā€™s not in trouble because of her name. Maybe youā€™re just not old enough to remember the jokes about other candidateā€™s names. If Elizabeth Warren actually wants to run, and if Bernie doesnā€™t run, Warren will very probably get the nomination and win. I just donā€™t know that she wants the job or feels at all prepared for it. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/386 "2018-08-06T05:21:10Z")
Iā€™ve read that Sanders and Warren have actually discussed that this primary may not be big enough for both of them, and theyā€™re sorting out which one will make a go of it. I suspect itā€™ll be Warren this time, but I donā€™t think sheā€™ll make it past March. ETA: [Hereā€™s the story I read, and beyond the headline, it doesnā€™t sound like theyā€™re really discussing much together.](http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399795-sanders-warren-question-whether-dem-primary-is-big-enough-for-both-of-them) Frankly, I donā€™t think an east coast progressive is the way to go, whichever of the two decides to run. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/387 "2018-08-06T06:32:04Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > I donā€™t think itā€™ll be Amy Klobuchar after all, because she may be a little too moderate and a little too dirty with corporate money for where the progressive movement is going. I donā€™t think the left will trust her. But no, sheā€™s not in trouble because of her name. Maybe youā€™re just not old enough to remember the jokes about other candidateā€™s names. > > If Elizabeth Warren actually wants to run, and if Bernie doesnā€™t run, Warren will very probably get the nomination and win. . " a little too moderate and a little too dirty with corporate money for where the progressive movement is goingā€¦" which is- losing the general election? Too moderate? And what is wrong with taking corporate money? If Warren gets the nom, the Dems will lose. Simple as that. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/388 "2018-08-06T06:33:39Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Frankly, I donā€™t think an east coast progressive is the way to go, whichever of the two decides to run. It would be a huge mistake. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/389 "2018-08-06T12:39:28Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Yet in this case, perhaps by random chance, he has a point. Very often some speaking spots are given to the emerging next round talent of a party. It is a try out of sorts to see if any can really connect given that big soap box. Obama hit it out of the park back in '04 and on the strength of that leapfrogged into a run earlier than many, including his greatest fans, would have expected. Few of the speakers who would be future contenders in 2016 hit more than a safe single. Biden was a solid double but not exactly _emerging_ back bench talent. Michelle Obama was a stand up triple but is neither interested nor a good choice to run at this point in time. (Iā€™d love to see her run and serve in a different office, maybe governor, at some point, and then maybe ā€¦) > > Warren simply lacks any charisma at all. Oddly enough, Bill Clinton blew his chance epically when he had the keynote slot. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/390 "2018-08-06T12:43:58Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > I donā€™t think itā€™ll be Amy Klobuchar after all, because she may be a little too moderate and a little too dirty with corporate money for where the progressive movement is going. I donā€™t think the left will trust her. But no, sheā€™s not in trouble because of her name. Maybe youā€™re just not old enough to remember the jokes about other candidateā€™s names. > > If Elizabeth Warren actually wants to run, and if Bernie doesnā€™t run, Warren will very probably get the nomination and win. I just donā€™t know that she wants the job or feels at all prepared for it. The progressive movement isnā€™t even a majority of the party, just the majority of primary voters in low turnout races. Iā€™m skeptical that any of these progressives can win the black vote, which is pretty much decisive in Democratic primaries since 1992. Unless the progressive in question is Kamala Harris. But at the start, the black vote will be with Biden until someone proves they are a better option. Iā€™d note that Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez won like 18% of the black vote(they preferred Crowley by a huge margin), and Cynthia Nixon is winning like 25% of the black vote(they prefer Cuomo). But even if the African-American community abandons Biden, they wonā€™t take up the progressive banner. They never have before. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/391 "2018-08-06T13:32:29Z")
Oooohhh, I just \*loves \*me some \*\*adaher \*\*predictions, donā€™t yā€™all? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/392 "2018-08-06T13:47:39Z")
Iā€™ll cite the past then: Bernie Sanders, failed to win the AA vote. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, failed to win the AA vote. Cynthia Nixon, presently failing to win the AA vote in polling. As a matter of fact, itā€™s hard to miss the similarity in African-American support between progressives and Republicans. They seem to be held in fairly equivalent esteem in the black community. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/393 "2018-08-06T13:52:52Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Oooohhh, I just \*loves \*me some **adaher** predictions, donā€™t yā€™all? So you have no actual argument or comment to make about the analysis? Heā€™s right so far as it goes. The progressive base is out-numbered by the minority rights and justice base and i_n general_ they are not excited by the same candidates. The best hope for the progressive wing is if there is one for them to rally around while other candidates split the other primary voters. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/394 "2018-08-06T13:58:22Z")
Yes, the so-called ā€œprogressiveā€ wing is burdened by fascination with personalities more than issues, easily infatuated by the next shiny candidate to appear out of nowhere with hands undirtied by actual achievement and a propensity to say whatever the audience wants to hear. But so is the hard right. That take care of your objection? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/395 "2018-08-06T13:59:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > ā€¦ As a matter of fact, itā€™s hard to miss the similarity in African-American support between progressives and Republicans. They seem to be held in fairly equivalent esteem in the black community. Both are made up of whites concerned about dropping in SES, with the R side being a bit more likely rural and more lower middle in origin, more commonly not as highly educated, and the D side being more upper middle, more likely urban and college graduated. Both are looking for the other to blame with the former hooking into minorities and the latter those who make more money than they do. ETA Yes Elvis it does. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/396 "2018-08-06T14:07:56Z")
If thatā€™s the case, then it would seem that the only plausible nominees are Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker unless thereā€™s a Bill Clinton type who can go from unknown to extremely popular with black voters relatively quickly. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/397 "2018-08-06T14:17:40Z")
Thereā€™s a ton of overlap (as well as some contentiousness) between progressives and racial/social justice Democrats. AOC is popular with both. Stacey Abrams is popular with both. Kamala Harris is popular with both. And of course Barack Obama is pretty popular with both, as well as having some moderate criticism from both. And many more. The divisions within the Democratic party are swamped by Democratic enthusiasm and anger about Trump. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/398 "2018-08-06T14:20:40Z")
I agree with your last statement. I just donā€™t think that translates to a Sanders-type candidate winning the nomination. Chances are, those dreams die in states like South Carolina, Ohio, Texas, etc. Also, the popular candidates you cited were either black or not actually popular with black voters(AOC). ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/399 "2018-08-06T14:24:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Bitch all you want, but if thatā€™s what voters hear(and they will, with Warren), then you lose. But enjoy feeling good about your moral stand while losing. Itā€™s true that having morals can be a drawback in politics. > [@](#): > > Warren is the perfect storm: old, a moral scold, bad voice, unlikeable in general. Again, a ā€œmoral scoldā€. So someone who calls out the political and financial establishment for their very real misdeeds, who challenges the status quo, who ā€œtells it like it isā€. I thought those were good things? And as for being old, abrasive, unlikeable and with a bad voice, the current incumbent seems to manage just fine. I donā€™t think Warren would win a general election but those are not the reasons why. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2018, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218/400 "2018-08-06T14:30:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I agree with your last statement. I just donā€™t think that translates to a Sanders-type candidate winning the nomination. Chances are, those dreams die in states like South Carolina, Ohio, Texas, etc. Weā€™ll see, but I donā€™t think predictions this early are worth anything. > [@](#): > > Also, the popular candidates you cited were either black or not actually popular with black voters(AOC). I havenā€™t seen a cite about AOCā€™s performance with black voters in her district. Further, the question was about popularity with racial/social justice Democrats (which are a different but overalapping group from black Democratic voters) ā€“ and sheā€™s been emphasizing those issues very heavily. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-2020-democrat-can-defeat-trump/818218.md?page=21)