# Which Congressional Seats are likely to change hands? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 10, 2010, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436 "2010-01-10T22:02:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/1 "2010-01-10T22:02:15Z")
In the coming election what seats are troubled and likely to change hands? ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/2 "2010-01-10T22:48:24Z")
NY-23 will be a toss-up. (The whirring sound you hear is my Republican ancestors spinning in their graves.) And once again it will be a bellwether for the GOP. If they field a moderate, they will win back the seat. If they field an ideological conservative, and Owens has made any decent showing in the 2010 Congressional session, he will win reelection. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/3 "2010-01-10T22:55:14Z")
> [@Polycarp](#): > > NY-23 will be a toss-up. (The whirring sound you hear is my Republican ancestors spinning in their graves.) And once again it will be a bellwether for the GOP. If they field a moderate, they will win back the seat. If they field an ideological conservative, and Owens has made any decent showing in the 2010 Congressional session, he will win reelection. IIRC, the seat gets redistricted into a safe Dem seat before the next election, so it probably won’t be competitive anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/4 "2010-01-11T00:02:11Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > IIRC, the seat gets redistricted into a safe Dem seat before the next election, so it probably won’t be competitive anymore. That could be an interesting trick. Most of Upstate outside the Big Aix cities was traditionally considered ‘safe’ Republican territory, with a few minor exceptions for particular candidates. The last non-Republican Congressman from the ‘core counties’ of the district was a Whig. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/5 "2010-01-11T00:23:33Z")
> [@Polycarp](#): > > That could be an interesting trick. Most of Upstate outside the Big Aix cities was traditionally considered ‘safe’ Republican territory, with a few minor exceptions for particular candidates. The last non-Republican Congressman from the ‘core counties’ of the district was a Whig. Yea, seems like I heard it a few places when the special election was going on, but now I can’t find a cite, so maybe I’m confused. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/6 "2010-01-11T00:29:11Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Yea, seems like I heard it a few places when the special election was going on, but now I can’t find a cite, so maybe I’m confused. And, either way, the census and redistricting won’t affect the 2010 election, but the 2012 election. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/7 "2010-01-11T02:00:41Z")
Well, we know [Dodd](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Dodd) and [Dorgan](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byron_Dorgan) will not be running for re-election to the Senate – which does not necessarily mean the Dems will lose those seats. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/8 "2010-01-11T15:30:06Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Well, we know [Dodd](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Dodd) and [Dorgan](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byron_Dorgan) will not be running for re-election to the Senate – which does not necessarily mean the Dems will lose those seats. Yes, but six Republicans are giving up their seats. It doesn’t mean much. Here is my totally unscientific preliminary prediction for the senate races. - indicates incumbent seeking re-election - indicates incumbent stepping down. NY Chuck Schumer D + Safe MD Barbara Mikulski D + Dunno NC Richard Burr R + Dunno OR Ron Wyden D + Safe CA Barbara Boxer D + Safe CO Michael Bennet D + Safe HI Daniel Inouye D + Safe NV Harry Reid D + Possible Loss NY C Kirsten Gillibrand D + Probably Safe VT Patrick Leahy D + Safe WI Russ Feingold D + Safe AL Richard Shelby R + Safe AK Lisa Murkowski R + Safe AZ John McCain R + Safe IA Chuck Grassley R + Possible Loss LA David Vitter R + Safe OK Tom Coburn R + Safe SC Jim DeMint R + Safe SD John Thune R + Safe UT Bob Bennett R + Safe GA Johnny Isakson R + Safe PA Arlen Specter D + Safe AR Blanche Lincoln D + Probably Safe ND Byron Dorgan D – Probable Rep MA B Paul Kirk D – Likely Dem DE A Ted Kaufman D - Likely Dem IL Roland Burris D – Likely Dem CT Chris Dodd D – Likely Dem FL George LeMieux R – Likely Rep KS Sam Brownback R – Likely Rep (Unless Sebelius runs, unlikely) KY Jim Bunning R – Tossup MO Kit Bond R – Tossup (interesting race it looks like) NH Judd Gregg R – Tossup OH George Voinovich R - Tossup ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/9 "2010-01-11T15:56:17Z")
I could see Michelle Bachman losing her seat if she keeps up the craziness. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/10 "2010-01-11T15:58:38Z")
> [@joebuck20](#): > > I could see Michelle Bachman losing her seat if she keeps up the craziness. Why? She’s absolutely adored by her base. ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/11 "2010-01-11T17:17:49Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Why? She’s absolutely adored by her base. True, she’s adored by the base, but doesn’t she live in a fairly moderate district? ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/12 "2010-01-11T18:22:29Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > MA B Paul Kirk D – Likely Dem Just an FYI - the special election in MA for Ted’s Senate seat is next Tuesday. Kirk isn’t running, and depending on whose poll you believe, the Republican candidate is either 1 point ahead or 15 points behind the Democratic candidate. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/13 "2010-01-11T18:46:13Z")
> [@joebuck20](#): > > True, she’s adored by the base, but doesn’t she live in a fairly moderate district? I don’t know what her district is like. > [@muldoonthief](#): > > Just an FYI - the special election in MA for Ted’s Senate seat is next Tuesday. Kirk isn’t running, and depending on whose poll you believe, the Republican candidate is either 1 point ahead or 15 points behind the Democratic candidate. Right. MA elected Mitt Romney though I have a hard time believing Taxachussetts will elect a Republican for Ted Kennedy’s seat. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/14 "2010-01-11T18:56:14Z")
> [@joebuck20](#): > > True, she’s adored by the base, but doesn’t she live in a fairly moderate district? R+7 apparently. So leans Republican I guess. Elwyn Tinklenberg, who she defeated by like three points last time, is going to try again in 2010, which if nothing else means we can still make fun of his name for another year. I still hold that if he’d changed his name to "Max Power’ or something before running last year, Bachmann would’ve been toast. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/15 "2010-01-11T18:57:43Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > R+7 apparently. So leans Republican I guess. Elwyn Tinklenberg, who she defeated by like three points last time, is going to try again in 2010, which if nothing else means we can still make fun of his name for another year. Oh man that’d be awesome, Representative Tinklenberg. 😉 I think we’re going to see Rand Paul take a Senate seat in Kentucky. Though I am creeped out by the fact that Ron Paul named his son Rand. It’s creepy to name your kid after Ayn Rand. If I were going to name my kid Rand, it would at least be named after the Rand Corporation. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/16 "2010-01-12T00:10:46Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > R+7 apparently. So leans Republican I guess. Elwyn Tinklenberg, who she defeated by like three points last time, is going to try again in 2010, which if nothing else means we can still make fun of his name for another year. Nah, he dropped out a while ago. The two contenders for the Dem nomination are Tarryl Clark and Maureen Reed. The consensus seems to be that both would be strong candidates. [http://politicsinminnesota.com/blog/2009/08/tinklenberg-out/](http://politicsinminnesota.com/blog/2009/08/tinklenberg-out/) ---
**Author:** ![Markxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5daacb/32.png) [@Markxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Markxxx)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-congressional-seats-are-likely-to-change-hands/524436/17 "2010-01-12T00:15:43Z")
With the economy being so bad, this is what is gonna decide it, come November. People traditionally vote the guy in office, out of office during tough times. The Republicans need to play up the lack of improvement since Obama took over. Yeah it wasn’t his fault, but at least for me, the economy has gotten 10 times as bad as it was a year ago.