# Which (if any) "Blue" states are trending purple? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 12, 2008, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081 "2008-05-12T21:03:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/1 "2008-05-12T21:03:50Z")
…and what, if anything, can we take from it? Throughout this primary cycle, there’s been constant talk of red states trending purple; Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Texas, etc. Some of this is questionable – I don’t see Texas or Indiana becoming a swing state any time soon. Some is possible such as Virginia. Even in the long-shot cases you hear it phrased as “Indiana is still strongly Republican but is picking up a slight purple tint.” So, are any blue states trending notably in the opposite direction? And does the red -\> purple trend reflect anything more than discomfort with the current administration or is it demographically driven (young affulent recent graduates moving into N. Carolina), a combination of both or does it portend something deeper? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/2 "2008-05-12T21:32:12Z")
Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire. Mostly the most disapproved of president ever with an economy in trouble and being stuck in a war that should have never been fought. Oh and that Republican leadership has failed to deliver for their core people on any meaningful measure. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/3 "2008-05-12T21:39:09Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire. [/quote] What makes you think those blue states are starting to trend red or purple? ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/4 "2008-05-12T21:44:56Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] … New Hampshire. [/QUOTE] Where’s the head-scratching smiley? The governor and legislature are Dem for the first time in over a century, and Dems took both U.S. House seats in 2006. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/5 "2008-05-12T21:47:15Z")
[QUOTE=Frank] Where’s the head-scratching smiley? The governor and legislature are Dem for the first time in over a century, and Dems took both U.S. House seats in 2006. [/QUOTE] Based on [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states) (see the diagram at the top right), NH is already a “light-blue” state (carried by a Dem in 3 of the last 4 presidential elections). ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/6 "2008-05-12T21:54:12Z")
New Mexico went blue in ‘92, 96’, and 2000, but narrowly red in 2004. John McCain and Obama are polling very evenly there this year, with 5 electoral votes at stake. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/7 "2008-05-12T21:57:02Z")
[QUOTE=appleciders] New Mexico went blue in ‘92, 96’, and 2000, but narrowly red in 2004. John McCain and Obama are polling very evenly there this year, with 5 electoral votes at stake. [/QUOTE] If Richardson is on his ticket, I wouldn’t rule out Obama taking **Arizona** this year! Yes, John McCain’s Arizona! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/8 "2008-05-12T22:01:52Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] If Richardson is on his ticket, I wouldn’t rule out Obama taking **Arizona** this year! Yes, John McCain’s Arizona! [/QUOTE] I would. Hell, Barry Goldwater managed to take Arizona while getting routed almost everywhere else. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/9 "2008-05-12T22:23:44Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] I would. Hell, Barry Goldwater managed to take Arizona while getting routed almost everywhere else. [/QUOTE] But AZ is now [almost 30% Latino.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona#Demographics) That’s quite a bloc. And I’m guessing most of those are citizens. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/10 "2008-05-12T22:56:35Z")
Well [this map](http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/electoralmap/index.html) is fun to play with. Obama lost New Hampshire remember, Kerry only won there by 1% and McCain has been very popular there (bet his entire campaign successfully on their famed independent streak finding him appealing). Scratch away but it is considered in play. ---
**Author:** ![tds1273](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/df705f/32.png) [@tds1273](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tds1273)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/11 "2008-05-12T22:59:28Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] If Richardson is on his ticket, I wouldn’t rule out Obama taking **Arizona** this year! Yes, John McCain’s Arizona! [/QUOTE] Or Napolitano. I don’t know about Blue-\>Red, but I just want to add my homestate of Colorado to the swing list. Now beyond Boulder, Denver has finally been steadily breaking blue more and more; though I don’t think C.Springs is quite there yet. ---
**Author:** ![ZebraShaSha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/eada6e/32.png) [@ZebraShaSha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZebraShaSha)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/12 "2008-05-12T23:11:48Z")
North Carolina, please oh please oh please… ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/13 "2008-05-12T23:15:11Z")
Just noticed this thread is turning into a discussion of **red** states trending purple . . . But, really, I can’t think of any examples on the other side. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/14 "2008-05-12T23:40:22Z")
**Blue states trending purple?** West Virginia, maybe? Based on interviews in the West Virginia thread, the voters seemed pretty happy that coal prices were being driven up, and miners were getting work. The state went red in the last two presidential elections after having gone blue in five of the prior six elections. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/15 "2008-05-13T00:24:16Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Scratch away but it is considered in play. [/QUOTE] Well, sure it’s in play, but it is only extremely recently a blue state, and thus can’t be considered a blue state trending purple. It’s a red state gone blue if you ask me. It’s got a lot more history than just the most recent presidential elections. Unless, of course, the end all and be all of blue/red is simply the presidential vote. ---
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/16 "2008-05-13T00:37:57Z")
One question, before we progress any further… Are we to consider merely Presidential results, or results as a whole? New Mexico had gone for Republican presidential candidates in the six Presidential elections preceding 1992. The State Legislature is Democratic, and has not been showing signs of trending toward Republicans. There is only one statewide Republican officeholder out of seven offices, the two Senate seats have had the same party split (and the same Senators, thought that will soon change) since 1982, and (with the exception of a little under two years from 1997 to 1999) the same party split in the House of Representatives since that time. Going back to the main question, I’m having some trouble determining states that are clearing trending towards the Republicans and which can be considered “blue” (most of the examples I can immediately think of are states that are already at least fairly Republican trending more towards that party). In New Jersey, the Dems had a mixed election in 2007 (gaining one seat in the State Senate, losing two in the State Assembly, and with local elections being generally unfavorable), but I’m not sure that that’s enough to determine any sort of overall trend. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/17 "2008-05-13T01:38:02Z")
[QUOTE=Governor Quinn] One question, before we progress any further… Are we to consider merely Presidential results, or results as a whole? [/QUOTE] Well, the primary coverage has mainly been slanted towards the general presidental election (i.e. “Colorado has been becoming purple so Obama might be able to win it in November…”) so I guess that’s my main question. But I know some states seem to often have presidental returns which are contrary to their statewide office results. So I’m interested in any federal election, presidental or congressional. I just found it interesting how there’s been a half-dozen states or more where I’ve heard the “red trending purple” label applied to them but no states where I’ve heard “It’s usually blue but has been slanting purple/Republican in past years”. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/18 "2008-05-13T01:47:19Z")
That’s the problem with these labels … we don’t really know what they mean. [TGFP!](http://www.mycomicspage.com/opus/2008/04/27/) ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 7:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/19 "2008-05-13T07:16:37Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] If Richardson is on his ticket, I wouldn’t rule out Obama taking **Arizona** this year! Yes, John McCain’s Arizona! [/QUOTE] You’re out of your goddamned mind. 🙂 Edit: 30% Latino population doesn’t mean that 30% of the voters will be Latino. Of the Latinos that actually go out and vote, you can expect a whole lot of them to be hostile to a black candidate, no matter who his running mate is. ---
**Author:** ![Airblairxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Airblairxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airblairxxx)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2008, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081/20 "2008-05-13T17:50:11Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire. [/QUOTE] FWIW, [this WaPo blog post](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/04/the_line_these_states_in_play.html) agrees with you that those three Kerry '04 states are the most likely to switch to McCain '08. However, they are ranked 7 through 9. States 1 through 6–1 being the most likely to switch–and #10 are all Bush states. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-if-any-blue-states-are-trending-purple/449081.md?page=2)