# Which Republican hopeful will be the first to be gone? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 28, 2015, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400 "2015-07-28T16:04:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2015, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/41 "2015-07-31T19:43:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > …But Walker, Huckabee, and Santorum need Iowa very badly. Two of those three aren’t leaving Iowa, possibly all three. So I’ll say Santorum is the most likely to be gone in 2016… Speaking as a Pennsylvania resident, can we arrange it so that Santorum _literally_ doesn’t leave Iowa? Just asking… ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2015, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/42 "2015-08-01T11:49:50Z")
> [@syncrolecyne](#): > > If Trump flames out, I think Ben Carson will be in a good spot to pick up voters who hate the political establishment. By the time Trump flames out, people will be getting a bit more serious with their votes. Scott Walker will pick up most of Trump’s support. > [@](#): > > I’d say Chris Christie or Bobby Jindal. Both of them have a state to run. They cannot afford to sink their political career any further with presidential campaigns that go nowhere. Both are running now because someone thought for ten minutes in 2013 that they might have a chance. Jindal’s got less than zero interest in being governor of Louisiana right now - it’s got problems, they’re hard to deal with, so he’s running _away_ from all that. And after his term as governor is over, so is his political career. He’s already ruined it. They can’t stand him any more in Louisiana, and why would anyone else want him? Christie’s multiple scandals have already sunk his political career, and his main interest in being governor of NJ (other than as a steppingstone to a Presidential run) seems to have been to use it as a political patronage machine. He will probably be in the first debate because his 3% support should be enough to hold onto that #10 spot over Perry. And he will keep his campaign alive because that’s all he’s got right now. But once his Presidential campaign ends with a 4th place or worse finish in NH, he has no political future. The Outlaw Jersey Whale will have been beached. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/43 "2015-08-03T17:14:32Z")
There are so MANY candidates who don’t have a prayer, this is hard to predict. The most recent guy to JOIN the race, Jim Gilmore, may well be the first to leave. At some point, the many candidates all hovering around 1-2% of the vote will have to decide whether they have enough money to make ANY kind of go of it. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/44 "2015-08-03T17:16:54Z")
I’m going to take a shot at an actual prediction and say Rick Perry. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/45 "2015-08-03T18:59:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m going to take a shot at an actual prediction and say Rick Perry. Perry sure won’t win, but he has enough money to hang around a while. and conspiracy theorists think he’s staying around mainly to fight Trump so no one else has to. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/46 "2015-08-04T00:29:24Z")
If most of these clowns were the slightest bit realistic they wouldn’t be in the race in the first place. It boils down to whether they have a sugar daddy to give them money. Fiorina is her own sugar daddy, so she won’t be first. (Unless the demon sheep get her.) I was going to say Jindal, but I had forgotten that Pataki was even a candidate. If someone is in the debate, and sees their support tank, that might do it. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/47 "2015-08-04T01:45:21Z")
> [@tullsterx](#): > > They all stay in till the Iowa Caucus. Then, I think maybe Huckaby or Santorum if they don’t show well. Both were big hits in Iowa years ago, a poor showing this time around will make them reconsider. > > Also, I think the Cruz might drop with a poor showing in Iowa. Nope. Cruz has tons of money, and reportedly did well with the Koch’s. He’s in it for the long haul. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/48 "2015-08-04T16:21:17Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > If most of these clowns were the slightest bit realistic they wouldn’t be in the race in the first place. It boils down to whether they have a sugar daddy to give them money. Fiorina is her own sugar daddy, so she won’t be first. (Unless the demon sheep get her.) I was going to say Jindal, but I had forgotten that Pataki was even a candidate. > If someone is in the debate, and sees their support tank, that might do it. That is why I voted for Fiorina. With a net worth of [$59 million](http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/carly-fiorina-personal-net-worth-118637.html) she is wealthy, but not even in Romney territory, much less billionaire territory, and its a lot less painful to spend other peoples money on your quixotic quest than it is to spend your own. But we’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/49 "2015-08-04T17:35:50Z")
[According to FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-fox-news-gop-debate-lineup-looks-pretty-set/), unless there are some unforseen fantastic poll performances in the next two days, the debate line up is pretty much set. Donald Trump: 23.2 percent Jeb Bush: 12.8 percent Scott Walker: 10.6 percent Ben Carson: 6.6 percent Mike Huckabee: 6.6 percent Ted Cruz: 6.2 percent Marco Rubio: 5.2 percent Rand Paul: 4.8 percent Chris Christie: 3.4 percent John Kasich: 2.8 percent ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/50 "2015-08-04T21:24:37Z")
Wait, Fiorina is only $59 million? That’s all? I personally know people within shouting distance of that, and while they own their own businesses, those businesses aren’t major multinationals. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/51 "2015-08-05T22:10:00Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Wait, Fiorina is only $59 million? That’s all? I personally know people within shouting distance of that, and while they own their own businesses, those businesses aren’t major multinationals. She’d probably be worth more if she hadn’t run HP into the ground. ---
**Author:** ![skj91](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9c0ed/32.png) [@skj91](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skj91)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 7:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/52 "2015-08-22T07:55:51Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > If you aren’t in the debate you have 0% chance of having your performance discussed. In a field this large, you can’t afford to be ignored by the media for very long. So long as Trump is still in it, the rest of the Republicans have nearly 0% chance of having their performance discussed. Also I don’t think Trump is running just because it’s fun or because he likes everyone thinking he’s running, as someone else suggested. He has a very precise reason for running… it’s publicity. That’s all he has ever been about, seeking fame. What better way to gain national attention than to run for president? It’s basically forcing everyone in the country to pay attention to you and let’s face it, fame is his business model. That’s literally how he made well over half his fortune. Why do you think he plasters his name in 40-foot tall letters across the face of all his buildings? He relies on being a celebrity to build his fortune exponentially – Or, come to think of it, maybe it really is just to stroke his own ego, maybe it really is just because he’s got a histrionic personality, like Cleopatra did – Whatever the case, I agree that he’s never had any intention of actually winning and has absolutely no desire to do anything that takes as much work as it does to run the country. But, again as pointed out already, he will stick it out in the race for as long he can get away with it since all he’s really after is to be in the spotlight. ---
**Author:** ![Bimmer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/db5fbb/32.png) [@Bimmer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bimmer)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/53 "2015-08-22T12:20:11Z")
> [@skj91](#): > > So long as Trump is still in it, the rest of the Republicans have nearly 0% chance of having their performance discussed. > > Also I don’t think Trump is running just because it’s fun or because he likes everyone thinking he’s running, as someone else suggested. He has a very precise reason for running… it’s publicity. That’s all he has ever been about, seeking fame. What better way to gain national attention than to run for president? It’s basically forcing everyone in the country to pay attention to you and let’s face it, fame is his business model. That’s literally how he made well over half his fortune. Why do you think he plasters his name in 40-foot tall letters across the face of all his buildings? He relies on being a celebrity to build his fortune exponentially – Or, come to think of it, maybe it really is just to stroke his own ego, maybe it really is just because he’s got a histrionic personality, like Cleopatra did – Whatever the case, I agree that he’s never had any intention of actually winning and has absolutely no desire to do anything that takes as much work as it does to run the country. But, again as pointed out already, he will stick it out in the race for as long he can get away with it since all he’s really after is to be in the spotlight. Trump doesn’t need any more publicity. He doesn’t need any more success in the business world. Ask anyone who has ever had dealings with him. They will all tell you “Trump never loses”. I firmly believe Trump will be the next President. There is no one in the Dem party who could debate Trump and win the debate. President Trump WILL build the wall. That wall WILL be paid for by the Mexicans. It WILL be impenetrable. Trump Will take the fight against the Islamofascists wherever they are and destroy them. Trump will re-write the trade deals to at least level the playing fields with countries like Mexico and especially China. IMHO these are things vital to the future of the country. I don’t see Sanders the Socialist, of Hillary the congenital liar and thief, or Biden the old fart who thinks it’s ‘KOOL’ to swim naked in front of female members of his security detail doing anything helpful for the country. No I do not care for his bellicose style but I’ll take that over what any DEM has on offer. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/54 "2015-08-22T12:47:48Z")
> [@Bimmer](#): > > Trump doesn’t need any more publicity. He doesn’t need any more success in the business world. > Ask anyone who has ever had dealings with him. They will all tell you “Trump never loses”. > I firmly believe Trump will be the next President. There is no one in the Dem party who could debate Trump and win the debate. > President Trump WILL build the wall. That wall WILL be paid for by the Mexicans. It WILL be impenetrable. > Trump Will take the fight against the Islamofascists wherever they are and destroy them. > Trump will re-write the trade deals to at least level the playing fields with countries like Mexico and especially China. > IMHO these are things vital to the future of the country. > I don’t see Sanders the Socialist, of Hillary the congenital liar and thief, or Biden the old fart who thinks it’s ‘KOOL’ to swim naked in front of female members of his security detail doing anything helpful for the country. > No I do not care for his bellicose style but I’ll take that over what any DEM has on offer. I could have written this post, word for word! (Of course, had I done so, I would have been joking.) ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/55 "2015-08-22T12:54:55Z")
> [@Bimmer](#): > > Biden the old fart who thinks it’s ‘KOOL’ to swim naked in front of female members of his security detail doing anything helpful for the country. Political leaders have had a long history of skinny dipping, including [LBJ swimming naked with a naked Billy Graham.](http://www.newrepublic.com/article/106331/unabridged-sadly-unillustrated-history-political-skinny-dipping) Yeah, I know. Pass the brain bleach. ---
**Author:** ![inscrutable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/a88e4f/32.png) [@inscrutable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/inscrutable)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/56 "2015-08-22T17:43:55Z")
> [@Bimmer](#): > > Trump doesn’t need any more publicity. He doesn’t need any more success in the business world. > Ask anyone who has ever had dealings with him. They will all tell you “Trump never loses”. > I firmly believe Trump will be the next President. There is no one in the Dem party who could debate Trump and win the debate. > President Trump WILL build the wall. That wall WILL be paid for by the Mexicans. It WILL be impenetrable. > Trump Will take the fight against the Islamofascists wherever they are and destroy them. > Trump will re-write the trade deals to at least level the playing fields with countries like Mexico and especially China. > IMHO these are things vital to the future of the country. > I don’t see Sanders the Socialist, of Hillary the congenital liar and thief, or Biden the old fart who thinks it’s ‘KOOL’ to swim naked in front of female members of his security detail doing anything helpful for the country. > No I do not care for his bellicose style but I’ll take that over what any DEM has on offer. Well, he probably wouldn’t do any more harm than Obama has, and it might be refreshing to have a President who values and encourages success. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/57 "2015-08-22T20:10:21Z")
> [@Bimmer](#): > > Trump doesn’t need any more publicity. He doesn’t need any more success in the business world. > Ask anyone who has ever had dealings with him. They will all tell you “Trump never loses”. > I firmly believe Trump will be the next President. There is no one in the Dem party who could debate Trump and win the debate. > President Trump WILL build the wall. That wall WILL be paid for by the Mexicans. It WILL be impenetrable. > Trump Will take the fight against the Islamofascists wherever they are and destroy them. > Trump will re-write the trade deals to at least level the playing fields with countries like Mexico and especially China. > IMHO these are things vital to the future of the country. > I don’t see Sanders the Socialist, of Hillary the congenital liar and thief, or Biden the old fart who thinks it’s ‘KOOL’ to swim naked in front of female members of his security detail doing anything helpful for the country. > No I do not care for his bellicose style but I’ll take that over what any DEM has on offer. > [@inscrutable](#): > > Well, he probably wouldn’t do any more harm than Obama has, and it might be refreshing to have a President who values and encourages success. Trump isn’t winning anything. Period. He may or may not get the GOP Nomination, but to win, you need Africa-Americans and Latinos. And Trump has no friends in either community. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/58 "2015-08-22T20:47:53Z")
> [@inscrutable](#): > > Well, he probably wouldn’t do any more harm than Obama has, and it might be refreshing to have a President who values and encourages success. Define success. If it means obscene wealth for 1% of the country, and stagnant incomes for the rest, we can’t afford to be successful for much longer. ---
**Author:** ![CBEscapee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b19c9b/32.png) [@CBEscapee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CBEscapee)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/59 "2015-08-22T22:07:31Z")
> [@Bimmer](#): > > Trump doesn’t need any more publicity. He doesn’t need any more success in the business world. > Ask anyone who has ever had dealings with him. They will all tell you “Trump never loses”. > I firmly believe Trump will be the next President. There is no one in the Dem party who could debate Trump and win the debate. > President Trump WILL build the wall. That wall WILL be paid for by the Mexicans. It WILL be impenetrable. > Trump Will take the fight against the Islamofascists wherever they are and destroy them. > Trump will re-write the trade deals to at least level the playing fields with countries like Mexico and especially China. > IMHO these are things vital to the future of the country. > I don’t see Sanders the Socialist, of Hillary the congenital liar and thief, or Biden the old fart who thinks it’s ‘KOOL’ to swim naked in front of female members of his security detail doing anything helpful for the country. > No I do not care for his bellicose style but I’ll take that over what any DEM has on offer. I am Mexican and curious as to how we will be forced to build this wall? Under threat of military intervention? Trade sanctions? Exactly how will Trump make Mexico pay for this? Because if one of our Presidents tried to pass that off on the country he would no longer be President and more than likely not even be alive. For any American to even think this is ridiculous. Just more blatant racist arrogance from our “friendly” neighbors to the north. The same way it has been throughout the history of our countries. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2015, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/60 "2015-08-22T22:17:05Z")
Limberbutt McCubbins could debate Trump and win. And Trump doesn’t encourage success. His entire current business model is built on encouraging failure. There’s a reason why his tagline isn’t “you’re hired”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400.md?page=4)