# Which Republican hopeful will be the first to be gone? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 28, 2015, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400 "2015-07-28T16:04:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/61 "2015-08-23T00:24:20Z")
> [@CBEscapee](#): > > I am Mexican and curious as to how we will be forced to build this wall? Under threat of military intervention? Trade sanctions? Exactly how will Trump make Mexico pay for this? His plan, and I emphasize his, combines punitive visa measures (higher fees, etc) along with punitive trade measures. His plan is a good old fashioned trade war with our third largest trading partner. To get it he’ll need to abrogate the three way agreement that also includes our largest trading partner. The biggest chunk is the trade sanctions. I don’t think he’s compared the impact of sanctions to the cost of the wall. He’s talking loudly and carrying a not very big stick. You’ll likely win that trade war anyway. Other parts of his immigration plan include spending around 1 trillion US$ to deport people currently responsible for about, IIRC, 8% of our GDP. We’ll likely be pretty deep in a recession just from those measures even without a trade war. I doubt Trump wins my party’s nomination, let alone winning the general election and getting Congress to go along with his plan. If he does, please do take us out behind the economic woodshed and beat us down. Nothing makes you say “that was stupid” like a major economic depression. We’ll have earned that lesson. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/62 "2015-08-23T02:20:00Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > I doubt Trump wins my party’s nomination, let alone winning the general election and getting Congress to go along with his plan. Your party’s problem is how to prevent him from winning the nomination without driving him into running as an independent, which would 86 any chance against the Democratic nominee, be that Clinton, Biden or Sanders. Any one of three will cakewalk into the White House if Trump bolts the party and takes his mouth breather constituency with him. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/63 "2015-08-23T11:03:04Z")
> [@Bimmer](#): > > Trump doesn’t need any more publicity. He doesn’t need any more success in the business world. > Ask anyone who has ever had dealings with him. They will all tell you “Trump never loses”. > I firmly believe Trump will be the next President. There is no one in the Dem party who could debate Trump and win the debate. > President Trump WILL build the wall. That wall WILL be paid for by the Mexicans. It WILL be impenetrable. > Trump Will take the fight against the Islamofascists wherever they are and destroy them. > Trump will re-write the trade deals to at least level the playing fields with countries like Mexico and especially China. > IMHO these are things vital to the future of the country. > I don’t see Sanders the Socialist, of Hillary the congenital liar and thief, or Biden the old fart who thinks it’s ‘KOOL’ to swim naked in front of female members of his security detail doing anything helpful for the country. > No I do not care for his bellicose style but I’ll take that over what any DEM has on offer. Welcome to the SDMB, Bimmer! The “Green Lantern” theory of politics, i.e. that if only a President had sufficient will to do so, he could accomplish X, Y, and Z that have proved intractable for others, doesn’t really have a lot of support around here. But good luck with that. > [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Define success. If it means obscene wealth for 1% of the country, and stagnant incomes for the rest, we can’t afford to be successful for much longer. Bingo. Is the purpose of an economy to just be an arena for a social-Darwinist competition, or is it to enable the vast majority of people to prosper? > [@CBEscapee](#): > > I am Mexican and curious as to how we will be forced to build this wall? Under threat of military intervention? Trade sanctions? Exactly how will Trump make Mexico pay for this? Because if one of our Presidents tried to pass that off on the country he would no longer be President and more than likely not even be alive. > > For any American to even think this is ridiculous. Just more blatant racist arrogance from our “friendly” neighbors to the north. The same way it has been throughout the history of our countries. And if anything, the “America, fuck yeah!” contingent unfortunately seems to be louder and prouder than ever. And they always need to find someone, some Other, to crap on. Looks like they’ve picked you guys (among others). Seems like the best the saner ones among us can do is keep their jingoistic fantasies from becoming reality. But yeah, Trump’s claim that Mexico will somehow be forced to pay for the wall seems to be a classic example of magical thinking. Of course, there’s a lot of that on the GOP side, like Jeb!'s claim that he could get the U.S. economy to grow at a 4% rate - which has now been topped by a few other GOP candidates, none of whom have any rational plan (or even an irrational plan, for that matter, or anything beyond arm-waving) for making that happen. > [@Chronos](#): > > Limberbutt McCubbins could debate Trump and win. Certainly Hillary would demolish Trump in a debate, as would any of the Dems with a chance of winning the nomination in the event that Hillary’s candidacy suddenly evaporated. They know their stuff, and they’d slice and dice Trump’s nonsense and expose him for the fraud that he is. The other Republican candidates can’t really do this, because the bullshit they’re peddling isn’t that different from the bullshit Trump’s peddling - which I’m glad to say Hillary has been pointing out already. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2015, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/64 "2015-08-23T11:12:17Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > The “Green Lantern” theory of politics, i.e. that if only a President had sufficient will to do so, he could accomplish X, Y, and Z that have proved intractable for others, doesn’t really have a lot of support around here. But good luck with that. > Bingo. Is the purpose of an economy to just be an arena for a social-Darwinist competition, or is it to enable the vast majority of people to prosper? Some of our problems are actually intractable. Others, like enforcement of immigration laws, are actually a matter of will. Immigration law was enforced better under Obama than any President in a long time. And the guy responsible for that improvement blinked and didn’t want to do it anymore. THat’s a failure of will, and previous Presidents lack of enforcement compared to Obama was also a lack of will. President Trump would at least get us back to first term Obama levels of deportations and probably do significantly better by getting some fairly non-controversial ideas through a Republican Congress, like biometric entry-exit systems. > [@](#): > > Certainly Hillary would demolish Trump in a debate, as would any of the Dems with a chance of winning the nomination in the event that Hillary’s candidacy suddenly evaporated. They know their stuff, and they’d slice and dice Trump’s nonsense and expose him for the fraud that he is. Clinton would lose a debate to Trump for the simple reason that Trump answers questions, Clinton avoids answering questions. Sure, if a debate is just about the ins and outs of various policies, Clinton’s knowledge is extensive. But what debates actually involve is where people stand. Witness Clinton’s incredibly awful answers about DLs for illegals in 2008. She was for them, then when she heard that Chris Dodd was against them she flip-flopped in the course of 2 minutes, realizing that she might have gotten too far out to the left. > [@](#): > > The other Republican candidates can’t really do this, because the bullshit they’re peddling isn’t that different from the bullshit Trump’s peddling - which I’m glad to say Hillary has been pointing out already. That’s Clinton’s message, but like much that she says, it’s a lie. Republicans have been going out of their way to disagree with Trump. And like most Clinton lies, it’s a transparent one. The public doesn’t believe it for a minute. If they did, we’d see the GOP candidates’ approval ratings sink. Instead, they are mostly rising, with the exception of Jeb. Meanwhile, Clinton’s approval and honesty ratings continue to fall. ---
**Author:** ![FairyChatMom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fairychatmom/32/21906_2.png) [@FairyChatMom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FairyChatMom)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 10:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/65 "2015-09-12T10:50:13Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Since Perry is seeing as little interest from donors this time around as he is voter interest, he’s probably not going to stick around long. He raised $17 million in his first quarter running in 2011. He’s raised just over $1 million in 2015. Looks like you nailed it! Perry was in my top 3 with Carly and Santorum, but I was sure Santorum would be the first to go. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/66 "2015-09-12T21:52:40Z")
Santorum is counting on a grassroots surge as in 2012. He won’t exit until after Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/67 "2015-09-12T22:02:49Z")
> [@FairyChatMom](#): > > Looks like you nailed it! Perry was in my top 3 with Carly and Santorum,\*\* but I was sure Santorum would be the first to go.\*\* He’ll be No. 2. Probably sneak out the back. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2015, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/68 "2015-09-12T22:05:18Z")
Possible Jindal is very possible too before Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2015, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/69 "2015-09-13T07:40:05Z")
One question here: Did Perry said anywhere who he supported to be the Republican nominee after he dropped of the race? Of course this is not important as Perry dropped so early, but this lack of who he will endorse looks to me to be a bit curious. ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2015, 9:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/70 "2015-09-13T09:05:58Z")
What happens to the remainder of the money donated to a dropped racehouse ? Is it: 1/ Divvyed up between the remaining people by the RNC until like a tontine, or as an Immortal, there is Only One ? 2/ Given to the candidate of the loser’s preference ? 3/ Returned ? 4/ Freezed on to as a consolation prize by the misfortunate wight ? 5/ Spent on blow ? 6/ Donated to the homeless ? ---
**Author:** ![FairyChatMom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fairychatmom/32/21906_2.png) [@FairyChatMom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FairyChatMom)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2015, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/71 "2015-09-13T13:52:28Z")
Are campaign donations used to pay staffers? If so, since Perry quit paying his people already, that suggests to me that he doesn’t have anything to disburse. There is a pretty extensive [rule book](http://www.fec.gov/pdf/candgui.pdf) - I didn’t bother reading thru it, but I expect it addresses how one can dispose of campaign donations. I’m pretty sure they’re not allowed to keep any money for personal use. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2015, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/72 "2015-09-13T18:30:39Z")
But “personal use” might have some loopholes in its definition. Like, you can’t spend it on a personal vacation to Hawaii, but you can spend it on a campaign event in Hawaii. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2015, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/73 "2015-09-13T19:19:11Z")
Who’s next now? ISTM it could be Pataki, Graham, or … the other guy, wassisname … Oh yeah, Gilmore. The other no-hopers (Christie, Jindal, Fiorina, toss in a few others if you like) have stubborn enough egos to keep them going a little longer. I’ll go with Graham, given that he’s being repudiated in the polls in his own home state, the only place a real number of voters know who he is. Then Pataki, because nobody cares. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/74 "2015-09-14T14:30:53Z")
Christie is not a no-hoper. His fundraising and endorsements are healthy, which means that if the establishment can find a way to get rid of Trump and Carson, that he’s well poised to be the guy they rally around. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/75 "2015-09-14T15:03:00Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > if the establishment can find a way to get rid of Trump and Carson IOW, Christie’s a no-hoper. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/76 "2015-09-14T15:08:15Z")
He’s second in the endorsement primary. He has a path to the nomination. If the outsiders falter and Bush continues to falter, that’s his opening. > **[The 2016 Endorsement Primary](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/)** > > FiveThirtyEight is collecting endorsements throughout the invisible primary and beyond to show who has the most party support. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/77 "2015-09-14T15:12:03Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > [Santorum will] be No. 2. Probably sneak out the back. I see what you did there. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/78 "2015-09-14T15:14:32Z")
I can’t make a firm prediction yet, but it will be either Pataki, Gilmore, or Jindal next. My money’s on Jindal, since he went in with the highest expectations of the three. Historically, the guys that drop out first are guys who were expected to do well initially but did not. Jindal was considered a guy who could win a year ago, in the same class as Rubio and Walker. It’s just not happening for him. Ah, screw it, I’ll call Jindal. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/79 "2015-09-14T15:20:35Z")
Confused on the premise, here. Does the candidate actually have to admit it? Or would the utter absence of staffers, etc. be sufficient? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/80 "2015-09-14T15:25:30Z")
Yes, are you actually running if nobody else knows it, Governor Gilmore? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400.md?page=5)