# Which Republican hopeful will be the first to be gone? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 28, 2015, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400 "2015-07-28T16:04:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/81 "2015-09-14T15:38:25Z")
I’d keep Jindal just so he can insult Trump some more. (BTW, Bobby and Marco seem to point to a jinx associated to delivering the SOTU-response early in your national-level career…) ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/82 "2015-09-14T16:12:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Jindal was considered a guy who could win a year ago By whom? I have never heard anyone say Jindal had a chance of getting the nomination. I think some want to see something in Jindal that is simply not there. He has absolutely nothing to offer an electorate that doesn’t value academic achievement. He’s a smart guy who has convinced himself that he has to appear dumb to be taken seriously. He’s trying to out-Christian Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz and it isn’t working for him but he’s too bought in at this point. Jindal should be next out the door but I think he’ll stick around for a while if only to save face. The question is what is he saving it for? He’s done after this. I doubt even FOX News will want to have anything to do with him. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/83 "2015-09-14T17:01:45Z")
I’m betting on Huckleberry J. Butchmeup, aka Lindsey Graham, to be the next to go. Two reasons: 1. Out of the last 7 national polls, he’s got 0% support in 6 of them, and 1% in the seventh. 2. He’s got somewhere else to go, something else to do, besides run for President. Being a U.S. Senator has to be more worthwhile than a hopeless Presidential campaign that voters are paying zero attention to. Bobby Jindal, OTOH, is running _away_ from having to deal with Louisiana’s problems. He will stay in the race as long as he possibly can, no matter how poor his poll numbers are, simply to have an excuse to avoid having to go back to Louisiana. So having somewhere else to go and something else to do has the opposite motivation for him that it does for Graham. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/84 "2015-09-14T17:09:47Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > By whom? By **adaher**. He’s gone through a list of names already, each time confident the GOP had found its winner, and Jindal had his turn like the rest. > [@](#): > > Jindal should be next out the door but I think he’ll stick around for a while if only to save face. The question is what is he saving it for? He’s done after this. I doubt even FOX News will want to have anything to do with him. I wouldn’t be too sure about Fox. They’d \*love \*to have a brown face spouting their crap. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/85 "2015-09-14T17:11:45Z")
Maybe for bonus points you should not only name the next out, you should say whether or not he beats Lincoln Chafee to the sidelines. Poor Lincoln not only scores 0% in the polls, he fails to attract a single actual person. That’s pretty hard to do. Nonetheless, I take Little Bobby to beat Lincoln to the ex-candidates clubhouse. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/86 "2015-09-14T18:18:03Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Maybe for bonus points you should not only name the next out, you should say whether or not he beats Lincoln Chafee to the sidelines. Poor Lincoln not only scores 0% in the polls, he fails to attract a single actual person. That’s pretty hard to do. Nonetheless, I take Little Bobby to beat Lincoln to the ex-candidates clubhouse. The most recent national [Monmouth Poll](http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/d1a8c99b-802d-4cf3-a399-765109e4ddb9.pdf), released September 3, showed some GOP candidates with support of “1%”, some with “\<1%”, and some with “0%”. I’m guessing that those with “0%” actually had zero supporters, rather than just not enough supporters to be rounded up to 1%. FWIW, Perry had 1%, Jindal and Pataki had \<1%, and Santorum, Graham, and Gilmore had 0%. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/87 "2015-09-14T18:21:01Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > By **adaher**. He’s gone through a list of names already, each time confident the GOP had found its winner, and Jindal had his turn like the rest. > I wouldn’t be too sure about Fox. They’d \*love \*to have a brown face spouting their crap. Didn’t work with Romney. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/88 "2015-09-14T18:25:42Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > I’d keep Jindal just so he can insult Trump some more. He might be getting propped up for now, along with Fiorina and maybe Carson, to show the party’s diversity in the debates. I’ll say the next few to get the hook will be white guys. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/89 "2015-09-14T18:54:23Z")
And btw, the diversity they would like to show does not include “confirmed bachelors” - another reason to expect Graham to get a nice little chat with Priebus. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2015, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/90 "2015-09-14T20:00:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Christie is not a no-hoper. His fundraising and endorsements are healthy, which means that if the establishment can find a way to get rid of Trump and Carson, that he’s well poised to be the guy they rally around. Oh God [I hope the Republicans nominate Christie](http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/new-wp/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Christie-Overall-Approval-Aug-2015.png), but I don’t think the country would be that lucky. I think it’s fair to put him in the no-hoper camp. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/91 "2015-09-16T13:57:13Z")
Just for reference, tonight’s circus on CNN (you forgot there was another debate, right?) will have 11 clowns in the center ring, not Fox’s 10. The 4 left out on the midway, who constitute the most likely pool of next-departers, are Santorum, Jindal, Graham, and Pataki. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/92 "2015-09-16T14:29:17Z")
Addendum: Gilmore didn’t even get invited to the kiddie table this time. Does that make it official? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/93 "2015-09-16T14:33:38Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Yes, are you actually running if nobody else knows it, Governor Gilmore? Gilmore’s running a very Zen campaign. If a candidate gives a speech and nobody hears it, does he make a sound? ---
**Author:** ![The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_wind_of_my_soul)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/94 "2015-09-16T17:43:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > He’s second in the endorsement primary. He has a path to the nomination. **If the outsiders falter** and Bush continues to falter, that’s his opening. > > [The 2016 Endorsement Primary | FiveThirtyEight](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/) (Bolding mine.) Okay, so Christie’s second in the endorsement primary, and still appealing to the establishment. I completely see how Bush faltering could be very good news for Christie. But the outsiders? I don’t get this one. Do you really think Christie could pick up the support of Trump/Carson/Fiorina fans? Also, for the record, my prediction of next to go is either Jindal or Christie. The other kiddie table guys (Pataki, Graham, Gilmore) never drummed up any sort of excitement within the Republican base, and probably aren’t expecting to do that well. Santorum is delusional, thinking that because he had a last-minute surge in 2012, he’ll do the same thing again and cruise on the nomination because it’s his turn. Jindal and Christie were both, at one point, pretty popular figures within the Republican base, and they’ve fallen far. So I think one of them will be next. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/95 "2015-09-16T19:25:25Z")
As I’ve said before, Jindal’s in it to [del]win it[/del] avoid having to deal with Louisiana’s problems as long as possible, despite being, you know, _Governor_. So there’s no way Jindal’s dropping out as long as he can maintain the most minimal charade of a campaign. My bet’s on Lindsey Graham, because (a) he’s drawing the least support of any candidate outside of Pataki and Gilmore, and (b) he has a day job that is presumably one that he likes and wants to keep. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/96 "2015-09-16T20:45:11Z")
I don’t really care who drops out next after Perry as long as Stephen keeps doing that Hunger Games tribute to the fallen. That was hilarious. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/97 "2015-09-16T21:35:22Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > I don’t really care who drops out next after Perry as long as Stephen keeps doing that Hunger Games tribute to the fallen. That was hilarious. That sounds hilarious, link? ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2015, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/98 "2015-09-16T22:29:26Z")
On my phone, so sorry if this doesn’t work well. [The Hungry For Power Games - YouTube](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=svMxwRj3LdY) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2015, 7:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/99 "2015-09-22T07:58:24Z")
They need to sell this as a new reality show: [del]17[/del] [del]16[/del] 15 Republican candidates and counting! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2015, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400/100 "2015-10-02T06:30:03Z")
Paul looking pretty toasted now: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/10/02/paul\_campaign\_insists\_its\_not\_folding\_tent.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/10/02/paul_campaign_insists_its_not_folding_tent.html) If Paul wants to establish himself as a serious future candidate, one way to do that is to recognize when he’s not getting anywhere. It’s just not his year. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-republican-hopeful-will-be-the-first-to-be-gone/726400.md?page=4)