# Which side takes defeat harder? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 2, 2019, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119 "2019-01-02T23:57:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/81 "2019-01-07T03:47:08Z")
> [@Ancient\_Erudite](#): > > Democrats take defeat worse. It’s not all their fault, the media pumps them up generally speaking casting Republicans as the underdogs in Presidential races. If you believe them and their polls, neither Bush or Trump was supposed to win. Yet they did. > > Underdogs take defeat better. Smug favorites do not. > > More problematic for Democrats is the Electorial college system is set up, and where the population growth is happening. Did you know Trump won 22 of the top 25 birth rate states? Its true, and this means electoral votes will be shifting red. The states with the highest fertility rate are west of the Mississippi River to the Northern mountain states, which are mostly Republican. Meanwhile, the Northeastern Fertility rates are dropping and that’s a blue wall. > > Judge for yourself. 20 years from now, it will be harder on Dem’s to get to 270 electoral votes, not easier assuming states say they way they are. > > [List of U.S. states and territories by fertility rate - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_fertility_rate) It doesn’t help Democrats either that they’ve been aborting many millions of their potential voters over the past half century. Roe Effect. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/82 "2019-01-07T04:20:19Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > It doesn’t help Democrats either that they’ve been aborting many millions of their potential voters over the past half century. Roe Effect. :dubious: Considering that [at present 31% of Americans identify as Democrat, 42% Independent, and only 24% Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states#Current_party_strength), how do you figure that abortion is really playing a significant role in voter demographics here? (And if you think that Republicans, even vociferously anti-abortion Republicans, aren’t getting abortions then you’re kidding yourself.) ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/83 "2019-01-07T04:40:21Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > :dubious: Considering that [at present 31% of Americans identify as Democrat, 42% Independent, and only 24% Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states#Current_party_strength), how do you figure that abortion is really playing a significant role in voter demographics here? > > (And if you think that Republicans, even vociferously anti-abortion Republicans, aren’t getting abortions then you’re kidding yourself.) It would have been more lopsided. I don’t doubt that there are Republicans, even pro-life Republicans who get abortions, but it’s pretty intuitive that the side that endorses abortion rights is more likely to get abortions in the event of inconvenient pregnancies. If it weren’t for abortion, Democrats would have absolutely torpedoed Republicans out of the water by now, holding a massive edge in votes. This isn’t new; the observation has been around for a long time. > **[Roe effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_effect)** > > The Roe effect is a hypothesis about the long-term effect of abortion on the political balance of the United States, which suggests that since supporters of the legalization of abortion cause the erosion of their own political base, the practice of abortion will eventually lead to the restriction or illegalization of abortion. It is named after Roe v. Wade, the U.S. Supreme Court case that effectively legalized abortion nationwide in the U.S. Its best-known proponent is James Taranto of The Wall ... ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim_r.mortiss/32/142_2.png) [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_R.Mortiss)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/84 "2019-01-07T06:08:47Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > I don’t know who takes it “harder”, but democrats certainly seem more eager to take to the streets. Well, to be fair, Republican voters are more likely to have jobs they need to be at. ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/85 "2019-01-07T06:30:11Z")
> [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](#): > > Well, to be fair, Republican voters are more likely to have jobs they need to be at. What jobs are those unemployed coal miners in WV going to? The farmers who were literally paid to not grow crops? In other words - cite required. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/86 "2019-01-07T13:26:09Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I don’t doubt that there are Republicans, even pro-life Republicans who get abortions, but it’s pretty intuitive that the side that endorses abortion rights is more likely to get abortions in the event of inconvenient pregnancies. It might be confirmation bias or reporting bias but ISTM that the guys who are dead-set against abortion rights until their mistress gets pregnant have all been Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/87 "2019-01-07T15:14:59Z")
They have a much more seemly form of hypocrisy, they can afford airplane tickets to more congenial locations and need not worry about cut-rate abortions from shady sources. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/88 "2019-01-07T15:24:57Z")
The “Roe Effect” also assumes that future children are independent of previous children. More likely, any given couple (or mother, for single parents) has some number of children after which they would stop, regardless of previous sex acts, pregnancies, or abortions. So you might have someone having two abortions and then later having two kids, as opposed to having the kids from the first two pregnancies and then stopping. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/89 "2019-01-07T17:14:52Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > It would have been more lopsided. > > I don’t doubt that there are Republicans, even pro-life Republicans who get abortions, but it’s pretty intuitive that the side that endorses abortion rights is more likely to get abortions in the event of inconvenient pregnancies. > > If it weren’t for abortion, Democrats would have absolutely torpedoed Republicans out of the water by now, holding a massive edge in votes. > > This isn’t new; the observation has been around for a long time. > > [Roe effect - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_effect) So was the observation of the Earth being flat. :rolleyes: Given that the last three Republican POTUS victories were either electoral fluke or _razor-thing_ popular majorities, I wouldn’t put much stock in the “_Roe vs. Wade_ killed the Democratic Party” meme. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/90 "2019-01-07T17:54:01Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > So was the observation of the Earth being flat. :rolleyes: Given that the last three Republican POTUS victories were either electoral fluke or _razor-thing_ popular majorities, I wouldn’t put much stock in the “_Roe vs. Wade_ killed the Democratic Party” meme. I didn’t say Roe killed the Democratic Party. I said the Democrats would be considerably more powerful than they are right now if it weren’t for abortion. The Republicans wouldn’t have even come close in 2000, 2004 and 2016; they’d have been blown out. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/91 "2019-01-07T20:07:59Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I said the Democrats would be considerably more powerful than they are right now if it weren’t for abortion. Still a completely unsupported speculation. Here are some reasons, besides the ones noted above by other posters, to be suspicious of that unsupported speculation: - Correlation between poverty, high abortion rates, and low voter turnout. If a large chunk of the people getting abortions are not voting anyway, then their political affiliation is irrelevant. - No “blue surge” resulting from increasingly draconian abortion restrictions in recent decades. If abortion availability really was reducing the numbers of Democratic voters, then we would expect to see the red states that have made it much more difficult to get abortions becoming much more Democratic as a result, but they’re not. You personally may be convinced that it’s intuitively obvious that abortion has a noticeable impact on numbers of Democratic voters, but as **CaptMurdock** pointed out, the same argument can also be put forth in favor of the hypothesis that the Earth is flat. You’re going to have to come up with some actual empirically valid scientific evidence if you want anybody else to take your claim seriously. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/92 "2019-01-07T20:50:57Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > Still a completely unsupported speculation. Here are some reasons, besides the ones noted above by other posters, to be suspicious of that unsupported speculation: > > - Correlation between poverty, high abortion rates, and low voter turnout. If a large chunk of the people getting abortions are not voting anyway, then their political affiliation is irrelevant. > > - No “blue surge” resulting from increasingly draconian abortion restrictions in recent decades. If abortion availability really was reducing the numbers of Democratic voters, then we would expect to see the red states that have made it much more difficult to get abortions becoming much more Democratic as a result, but they’re not. Numbers would be helpful. But meanwhile, let me speak to these two points: 1. No one said anything about abortion _rates,_ but rather people for whom this issue trumps all others at the voting booth. (You alluded to this yourself, above). 2. Similarly, many people who tend to vote Democrat are pro-choice, but not so rabidly pro-choice that this issue trumps all others for them. But the speculation (I’m guessing it’s a good one) was about people who WOULD often vote Democrat, but instead have voted Republican, BECAUSE this single issue does trump all others for them. That’s a different group of people, and they may very well have swayed the close elections of 2000 and 2016 (and maybe 2004). You could say this about certain other groups of people, too, of course – IF X, then Y… ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/93 "2019-01-07T21:03:02Z")
Okay, I just read about the “Roe effect,” and I agree with Kimtsu that THIS seems rather far-fetched – this idea really _is_ about abortion rates and demographics. But I still think Velocity may have had a good point (if for the wrong reason), that abortion single-issue voters have eroded a bit (but a crucial bit) of the Democrats’ base. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/94 "2019-01-08T01:05:37Z")
Which doesn’t make any sense, because the Democrats are more pro-life than the Republicans. I can see someone not finding the Democrats good enough, either, and forming a third party, but voting for Republicans over abortion just doesn’t make any sense at all, for pro-life _or_ pro-choice. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/95 "2019-01-08T01:20:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Which doesn’t make any sense, because the Democrats are more pro-life than the Republicans. Ah…? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/96 "2019-01-08T01:58:48Z")
Talk to me when someone on the left blows up federal building in Oklahoma. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/97 "2019-01-08T13:53:22Z")
Chronos, I agree with you, but unfortunately the phrase “pro-life” has long been understood to mean “in favor of severely restricting the right to choose an abortion or not” (as you implied, even replacing the phrase “pro-life” with “anti-abortion” would not distinguish them from most pro-choice people, who favor policies that reduce abortion rates — and, many of them would never personally choose abortion themselves). ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/98 "2019-01-08T14:15:50Z")
[Here’s](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/07/us/florida-government-shutdown-marianna.html) a good example of a Trumpist taking defeat (in the general sense of not getting what one wants) very hard indeed: > [@](#): > > “I voted for him, and he’s the one who’s doing this,” she said of Mr. Trump. “I thought he was going to do good things. He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.” (For that matter, here’s a good example of a Trumpist, period.) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/99 "2019-01-08T16:46:46Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > [Here’s](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/07/us/florida-government-shutdown-marianna.html) a good example of a Trumpist taking defeat (in the general sense of not getting what one wants) very hard indeed: > > (For that matter, here’s a good example of a Trumpist, period.) Wow. Just…wow. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119/100 "2019-01-08T18:20:36Z")
Guys? This is “nut picking”. This person is seriously up-fucked, no question, but setting her forth as representative is bullshit unless we have something beyond this woeful quote. Stupid is contagious, you argue with idiots, you get more dumbest. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-side-takes-defeat-harder/827119.md?page=6)