# Which state is the least in play? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 7, 2012, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950 "2012-09-07T03:54:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/1 "2012-09-07T03:54:01Z")
I’m calling Utah. It’s a solid Republican state and the Mormons there are having their first chance to vote for one of their own. I’m predicting Romney hits at least 70%. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/2 "2012-09-07T03:59:01Z")
Hawaii always skews Democratic; it’s Obama’s other home state, it was the most lopsided state (well, unless you count DC) in 2008 and Utah has some catching up to do. Utah was the third most lopsided Republican win in 2008, and I’d agree Romney’s being a Mormon could get it up there, but I’ll stick with Hawaii as my guess. ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/3 "2012-09-07T04:05:39Z")
Idaho and Wyoming are also strongly red. ---
**Author:** ![woodstockbirdybird](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/woodstockbirdybird/32/7905_2.png) [@woodstockbirdybird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/woodstockbirdybird)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/4 "2012-09-07T04:16:38Z")
California for the Dems has been a foregone conclusion pretty much since I’ve been alive. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/5 "2012-09-07T04:17:35Z")
Oklahoma, where the last time around the Republicans won every county. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/6 "2012-09-07T04:18:24Z")
Hawaii and Illinois are solidly behind Obama. Nevada and Texas are solidly behind Romney. No way in Hell the results in those four states will be different from that. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/7 "2012-09-07T04:29:08Z")
> [@echo7tango](#): > > Idaho and Wyoming are also strongly red. Yes, but if a couple gets a flat tire and gets to the polling place late, it can throw the entire election. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/8 "2012-09-07T04:33:12Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Nevada and Texas are solidly behind Romney. No way in Hell the results in those four states will be different from that. Bzzzt. Incorrect. Obama won Nevada in 2008, and that great state is currently listed as up for grabs in every electoral map I’ve seen. Currently, [Nate Silver is giving it a 81.8% chance of going for Obama](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/); i.e. more likely than Obama’s chances to win re-election overall. Idaho, however. Idaho is virtually 100% likely to go to Romney. ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/9 "2012-09-07T04:36:21Z")
MA and NY are solidly blue. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/10 "2012-09-07T05:00:57Z")
Isn’t “in play” an either/or, black/white, yes/no kind of thing? ISTM that a state is either in play or it isn’t and there can’t be any “most” or “least” about it. If there is any doubt whatsoever about who will win a given state then the state is still in play, right? ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/11 "2012-09-07T05:06:53Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Hawaii and Illinois are solidly behind Obama. Nevada and Texas are solidly behind Romney. No way in Hell the results in those four states will be different from that. > [@Knorf](#): > > Bzzzt. Incorrect. Obama won Nevada in 2008, and that great state is currently listed as up for grabs in every electoral map I’ve seen. Currently, [Nate Silver is giving it a 81.8% chance of going for Obama](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/); i.e. more likely than Obama’s chances to win re-election overall. > > Idaho, however. Idaho is virtually 100% likely to go to Romney. D’oh! :smack: And of course, by “Nevada,” I meant “Utah.” Utah is what I was thinking, but somehow my fingers typed Nevada. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/12 "2012-09-07T05:08:00Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > D’oh! :smack: And of course, by “Nevada,” I meant “Utah.” Utah is what I was thinking, but somehow my fingers typed Nevada. I figured as much. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/13 "2012-09-07T05:31:45Z")
The number of states that are “in play” is probably by the number of those that are “out of play”. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/14 "2012-09-07T05:33:40Z")
Um, what? Sorry, I’ve read that sentence multiple times and I still can’t figure it out. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/15 "2012-09-07T05:45:45Z")
Aren’t most of the states NOT IN PLAY at all? There’s only a few states in play in this, and most elections. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/16 "2012-09-07T05:52:25Z")
> [@woodstockbirdybird](#): > > California for the Dems has been a foregone conclusion pretty much since I’ve been alive. So, since 1996? That’s only three elections. ---
**Author:** ![Rampant\_Coypu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/439d5e/32.png) [@Rampant\_Coypu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rampant_Coypu)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/17 "2012-09-07T05:53:09Z")
I support a direct popular vote amendment. There will be no more swing states after that I say this as a frustrated blue enclave Democrat in Texas. More people voted for Obama in Texas than in a few states he won combined. Why shouldn’t our votes count? At least I can take hope that the Dems seem to be investing in Texas to make it the mother of all swing states in 2016 by making Julian Castro the keynote speaker this year. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/18 "2012-09-07T07:05:20Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > D’oh! :smack: And of course, by “Nevada,” I meant “Utah.” Utah is what I was thinking, but somehow my fingers typed Nevada. You were probably fooled by all those casinos in SLC. I live in California, and haven’t seen campaign ad one. Which works for me, We’re already getting Proposition ads, so don’t envy us too much. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/19 "2012-09-07T07:50:01Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Aren’t most of the states NOT IN PLAY at all? There’s only a few states in play in this, and most elections. I know. That’s why I asked which state was _least_ in play. To keep in simple, which state do you think will poll the highest percentage of voters for one candidate? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 8:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/20 "2012-09-07T08:10:29Z")
On that basis it’s very likely Utah. It’s hard to tell in a lot of states because the party affiliation of record is based on voter registrations and independents don’t show up in the graphs I’ve seen. Utah has a 2:1 edge in registered Republicans over Democrats. Texas has a higher percentage of Republicans, but few Republicans in Utah won’t vote for Romney because he’s a Mormon, or any other misgivings they might have. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950.md?page=2)