# Which state is the least in play? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 7, 2012, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950 "2012-09-07T03:54:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/21 "2012-09-07T13:16:04Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Um, what? Sorry, I’ve read that sentence multiple times and I still can’t figure it out. Sorry, typing carelessly. Forgot to include the word “dwarfed”. The point being that there are only a few states that are up for grabs. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/22 "2012-09-07T13:37:45Z")
All of us can take a map and color in 40 states either red or blue and be virtually 100% certain that they will fall the way they’re colored in. As to which is most certain, it’s impossible to say. Take the Texas to North Dakota Great Red Wall, Utah, Mississippi, Alaska as equally certain Romney states. Take the Pacific coast, Massachusetts, Illinois, New York as equally certain Obama wins. Probably the easiest lock of all isn’t even a state- the District of Columbia. ---
**Author:** ![StusBlues](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@StusBlues](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StusBlues)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/23 "2012-09-07T13:47:39Z")
I will marry a goat if Alabama goes for Obama. That is all. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/24 "2012-09-07T13:48:38Z")
Pics, or it didn’t happen. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/25 "2012-09-07T13:51:04Z")
Romney bought Utah decades ago. Most everybody in Alaska is batshit insane, so that state is solidly Republican as well. As a Californian, I like the Electoral College. It makes sure those nutballs in Orange County can’t skew the presidential results. ---
**Author:** ![StusBlues](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@StusBlues](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StusBlues)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/26 "2012-09-07T13:53:39Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Pics, or it didn’t happen. I’m not too worried. That, and I will shove a flagpole in my urethra if DC goes for Romney. (Granted, not a state, but it does have some votes.) ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/27 "2012-09-07T14:35:52Z")
I think the winner has got to be Hawaii: there’s no chance, less than zero chance if that were mathematically possible, that Romney could win there. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/28 "2012-09-07T14:39:35Z")
> [@StusBlues](#): > > I will marry a goat if Alabama goes for Obama. > > That is all. If the goat is FROM Alabama, it might already be spoken for. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/29 "2012-09-07T14:49:22Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > If the goat is FROM Alabama, it might already be spoken for. “That goat doesn’t love you!” ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/30 "2012-09-07T15:34:31Z")
Not strictly speaking a state, but I think DC’s got to be at least a good a lock for Obama as Utah is for Romney. 538 gives Obama 93.5% of DCs vote, while Romney has a mere 70% of Utahs vote. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/31 "2012-09-07T16:02:59Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Not strictly speaking a state, but I think DC’s got to be at least a good a lock for Obama as Utah is for Romney. 538 gives Obama 93.5% of DCs vote, while Romney has a mere 70% of Utahs vote. Yeah DC is easily the most partisan “state”. ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/32 "2012-09-07T16:13:40Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > So, since 1996? That’s only three elections. I believe Kerry is the _only_ loser to carry CA since they became a state (1st election they were part of: 1852) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/33 "2012-09-07T16:56:03Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > I believe Kerry is the _only_ loser to carry CA since they became a state (1st election they were part of: 1852) No, I just looked it up. Hancock in 1880, Blaine in 1884, Roosevelt in 1912, Nixon in 1960, Ford in 1976, and Gore in 2000 all won California. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/34 "2012-09-07T16:57:45Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I’m calling Utah. It’s a solid Republican state and the Mormons there are having their first chance to vote for one of their own. I’m predicting Romney hits at least 70%. With the Republican anti-porn platform plank, one would think Utah would actually be in play since Utah leads the nation in porn subscriptions per person. Serious answer would be Utah or any of the deep south states that haven’t urbanized. So Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina. The Rick Santorum belt. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/35 "2012-09-07T17:48:27Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > > [@woodstockybird](#): > > > > California for the Dems has been a foregone conclusion pretty much since I’ve been alive. > > So, since 1996? That’s only three elections. Nitpick: 4 elections. \*And \*Clinton won California by 14 points in 1992, but I guess you could say it wasn’t a foregone conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/36 "2012-09-07T17:57:42Z")
> [@woodstockbirdybird](#): > > California for the Dems has been a foregone conclusion pretty much since I’ve been alive. To clarify and to emphasize what others have said: You must be pretty young. California was fairly solidly Republican until 1992. Heck, it went for Ford in 1976 and Nixon in 1960! ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/37 "2012-09-07T18:02:41Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > To clarify and to emphasize what others have said: > > You must be pretty young. California was fairly solidly Republican until 1992. Heck, it went for Ford in 1976 and Nixon in 1960! The change is primarily in Southern California, I believe, due in large part to the large and growing Hispanic population. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/38 "2012-09-07T19:13:12Z")
[fivethirtyeight](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/) has a state-by-state probability map. Several states, both red and blue, are at 100%. Mouse over to see individual probabilities. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/39 "2012-09-07T20:35:45Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > “That goat doesn’t love you!” Don’t worry, you can always settle for Fluffy. ---
**Author:** ![wed1998](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/94ad74/32.png) [@wed1998](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wed1998)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/40 "2012-09-07T21:10:03Z")
Maryland, has to be. About as blue as they get, and we’re all singing the blues.☹ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950.md?page=3)