# Which state is the least in play? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 7, 2012, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950 "2012-09-07T03:54:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/41 "2012-09-07T21:38:26Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > The change is primarily in Southern California, I believe, due in large part to the large and growing Hispanic population. IIRC Obama even took Orange County. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/42 "2012-09-07T22:15:39Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > [fivethirtyeight](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/) has a state-by-state probability map. Several states, both red and blue, are at 100%. Mouse over to see individual probabilities. Anyone who wants to put money on a bet that either candidate will get 100% of the votes in any state should PM me. ---
**Author:** ![colonial](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/34f0e0/32.png) [@colonial](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/colonial)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/43 "2012-09-07T22:36:57Z")
If non-Mormon Bush could win 71.54% of Utah’s vote in 2004 then Romney should go well over 75% this year. I think the last time any state was that lopsided was 1944, when Dixie was still the Democratic party’s “Solid South”. FDR won 93.56% in Mississippi that year. See link, select year from column on the left: [Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections](http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/) ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/44 "2012-09-07T23:19:30Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > IIRC Obama even took Orange County. Obama did not in 2008: [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange\_County,\_California#Government](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_County,_California#Government) McCain won 50.4% to 47.8%. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/45 "2012-09-07T23:29:39Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Anyone who wants to put money on a bet that either candidate will get 100% of the votes in any state should PM me. What is meant is that the state will be won by the candidate in question with 100% probability, that is, it is a certainty. Of course no candidate will get 100% of the votes. Interestingly, California is “only” given a 99.9% chance of going to Obama right now, and Texas is only given 98.8% chance of going to Romney. (These numbers change all the time as new information comes in. I think California was as “low” as 95% probability for Obama a few weeks ago.) A few 100% states for Obama: New York, Maryland, Hawaii For Romney: Idaho, Wyoming, Utah ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/46 "2012-09-07T23:55:19Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > What is meant is that the state will be won by the candidate in question with 100% probability, that is, it is a certainty. Of course no candidate will get 100% of the votes. I know that. But people seem confused about the topic of the thread so I figured I should try to at least make some money off of it. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/47 "2012-09-07T23:59:57Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Anyone who wants to put money on a bet that either candidate will get 100% of the votes in any state should PM me. It doesn’t mean that the candidate will receive 100% of the votes. It’s the % likelihood that the candidate will win the state. And they’re not quite 100%–you get there by rounding to three significant figures. But yes, I agree there is truly a nigh 100% chance that Obama will win HI, as an example. Edit: ah, ninjaed, and riposted. Ooh, and ninjaed by over half an hour. Folks, I’m really not usually this slow. Really. Carry on. ---
**Author:** ![cmyk](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmyk/32/3353_2.png) [@cmyk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmyk)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/48 "2012-09-08T00:33:46Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > [fivethirtyeight](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/) has a state-by-state probability map. Several states, both red and blue, are at 100%. Mouse over to see individual probabilities. How nice to see Michigan a solid, deep blue. Maybe it’s due to the shit economy, the union workers, or perhaps having the worst governor the world has ever elected. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/49 "2012-09-08T00:47:54Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > [fivethirtyeight](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/) has a state-by-state probability map. Several states, both red and blue, are at 100%. Mouse over to see individual probabilities. Currently he has Vermont, New York, Maryland, D.C., Illinois and Hawaii as 100.0% for Obama. Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama are 100.0% for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/50 "2012-09-08T00:50:23Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > Currently he has Vermont, New York, Maryland, D.C., Illinois and Hawaii as 100.0% for Obama. Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, **Oklahoma** , and Alabama are 100.0% for Romney. Oklahoma. As bad as I hate Texas, I’ve spent enough time in Oklahoma to know I would slit my wrists if I had to live there. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/51 "2012-09-08T01:01:08Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > Folks, I’m really not usually this slow. Really. Cite? 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950/52 "2012-09-08T07:12:29Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > Cite? 😛 My post is my cite? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-state-is-the-least-in-play/633950.md?page=2)