# Which superhero flick will bomb the worst this year? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [April 2, 2011, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931 "2011-04-02T11:22:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2011, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/141 "2011-07-24T16:57:25Z")
From Box Office Mojo: > [@](#): > > Captain America: The First Avenger made an estimated $25.8 million on approximately 7,100 screens at 3,715 locations, edging out fellow Avenger Thor’s $25.5 million to top the summer’s superhero launches. Pretty impressive, especially since it’s going against Harry Potter. I guess everyone who wanted to see it, already saw it. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2011, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/142 "2011-07-24T19:56:51Z")
I didn’t want to make another topic for this so I’ll just post it here. The first poster(s) for the Avengers: [http://www.thehdroom.com/images/news/9276h.jpg](http://www.thehdroom.com/images/news/9276h.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Dan\_Norder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4af34b/32.png) [@Dan\_Norder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dan_Norder)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2011, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/143 "2011-07-25T16:32:41Z")
Based upon opening weekend ticket sales, _Cap_ is likely going to beat _GL_ with _Thor_-like numbers or higher. ---
**Author:** ![BlackKnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/eb8c5e/32.png) [@BlackKnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlackKnight)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2011, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/144 "2011-07-25T20:20:56Z")
According to [Rotten Tomatoes](http://www.rottentomatoes.com), “Captain America” grossed $65.8 million in its opening weekend. That’s a sliver over the $65.7 million for “Thor”. Not bad for a film going up against Harry Potter. However, “Cowboys and Aliens” opens on the 29th and is getting good early buzz. It’s possible that movie-goers in search of some slightly cheesy popcorn fare will opt for this instead of “Captain America”. Will the Captain have legs? If not, it might still get beaten by “Green Lantern” in total domestic gross. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2011, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/145 "2011-07-25T20:25:28Z")
> [@BlackKnight](#): > > Will the Captain have legs? If not, it might still get beaten by “Green Lantern” in total domestic gross. They apparently shot it for a lot less than GREEN LANTERN, though (and, at that, less than THOR). So it can gross less and net more, if it grosses less, after opening for more. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2011, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/146 "2011-07-25T20:28:51Z")
> [@BlackKnight](#): > > According to [Rotten Tomatoes](http://www.rottentomatoes.com), “Captain America” grossed $65.8 million in its opening weekend. That’s a sliver over the $65.7 million for “Thor”. Not bad for a film going up against Harry Potter. It’s doing even better, overall ticket sales-wise. From Box Office Mojo: > [@](#): > > While the gross difference was a sliver, **Captain had eight percent greater estimated attendance than Thor,** which received more bolstering from 3D (and had IMAX): Captain’s 3D share was 40 percent at 2,511 3D locations, compared to Thor’s 60 percent at 2,737. ---
**Author:** ![Dan\_Norder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4af34b/32.png) [@Dan\_Norder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dan_Norder)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/147 "2011-08-01T04:48:13Z")
According to [BoxOfficeMojo.com](http://BoxOfficeMojo.com), _Captain America_’s box office returns have already exceeded _Green Lantern_’s, both domestically and worldwide. _Green Lantern_ cost the most to make and earned the least out of this year’s crop of superhero movies. I think we can safely declare it the biggest failure of the films covered by this thread. _Cowboys and Aliens_ also underperformed, but, though it was based upon a comic book, it doesn’t really count as a superhero film. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/148 "2011-08-01T05:28:32Z")
Here’s the current numbers from Box Office Mojo. Captain America: The First Avenger Production Budget: $140,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $170,272,000 (2 weeks) X-Men: First Class Production Budget: $160,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $348,516,671 (9 weeks) Thor Production Budget: $150,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $447,743,560 (13 weeks) Priest Production Budget: $60,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $76,583,348 (12 weeks) Green Lantern Production Budget: $200,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $154,310,000 (7 weeks) In terms of profit, Green Lantern came in down below Priest. ---
**Author:** ![Ranchoth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranchoth/32/1066_2.png) [@Ranchoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranchoth)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 9:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/149 "2011-08-01T09:11:04Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > In terms of profit, Green Lantern came in down below Priest. Ouuuuuuuuuch. And I say that as someone who paid money to see Priest, but skipped Green Lantern. ---
**Author:** ![Bartman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/779978/32.png) [@Bartman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bartman)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2011, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/150 "2011-08-28T17:03:07Z")
I was just thinking of this. So I took the liberty of looking up the gross domestic totals for both the year so far and last week. For the year ```auto 7 Thor $181,030,624 8 Captain America: The First Avenger $168,677,000 12 X-Men: First Class $146,010,145 17 Green Lantern $115,742,183 ``` For the week ```auto 12 Captain America: The First Avenger $5,889,754 24 Green Lantern $ 476,423 35 X-Men: First Class $ 202,011 52 Thor $ 46,216 ``` All but Captain America have dropped below $1 million per week. So their positions are very unlikely to change. Cap still has a chance to beat the functionally done Thor. But it has been averaging a 48% decline from week to week. I don’t think it can close a $13 million gap. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2011, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/151 "2011-08-28T17:44:12Z")
> [@BlackKnight](#): > > According to [Rotten Tomatoes](http://www.rottentomatoes.com), “Captain America” grossed $65.8 million in its opening weekend. That’s a sliver over the $65.7 million for “Thor”. Not bad for a film going up against Harry Potter. > > However, “Cowboys and Aliens” opens on the 29th and is getting good early buzz. It’s possible that movie-goers in search of some slightly cheesy popcorn fare will opt for this instead of “Captain America”. Will the Captain have legs? If not, it might still get beaten by “Green Lantern” in total domestic gross. Cowboys and Aliens flopped. Here it is compared to updated numbers from Little Nemo’s post. Cowboys & Aliens Production Budget: $163,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $113,287,630 Captain America: The First Avenger Production Budget: $140,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $318,844,957 X-Men: First Class Production Budget: $160,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $350,939,744 Thor Production Budget: $150,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $448,512,824 Priest Production Budget: $60,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $76,583,348 Green Lantern Production Budget: $200,000,000 Worldwide Gross: $194,342,183 Box-office grosses don’t say much about profitability. Most of the profit comes out of DVD sales and rentals, streaming sales and rentals, sales to cable stations, and toy and figurine sales. Some movies hold up much better than others in this market. Still, Marvel has to be celebrating. Box Office Mojo has a ridiculously elaborate [comparison page](http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=summer11comicvs.htm) for these six movies. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2011, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/152 "2011-08-28T19:44:02Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Cowboys and Aliens flopped. Here it is compared to updated numbers from Little Nemo’s post. > > Cowboys & Aliens > Production Budget: $163,000,000 > Worldwide Gross: $113,287,630 > > Captain America: The First Avenger > Production Budget: $140,000,000 > Worldwide Gross: $318,844,957 > [@](#): > > Box Office Mojo has a ridiculously elaborate [comparison page](http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=summer11comicvs.htm) for these six movies. From that link, though, it’s still a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison. CAP has already grossed well over $20 million in Mexico; the numbers aren’t yet in for COWBOYS, which is opening there this weekend (and ditto for Peru, where CAP has racked up millions; and Colombia, where CAP has racked up millions; and France, where CAP has racked up millions). CAP likewise picked up more than $20 million in Brazil; COWBOYS doesn’t open there until September (and ditto for Germany, where CAP has racked up millions; and Italy, where CAP has racked up millions; and Spain, where CAP has racked up millions). And no reports are yet in for COWBOYS in Hong Kong, where CAP has also racked up millions. And no reports are yet in for COWBOYS in Thailand, where CAP has also racked up millions. And – look, I’m with you in doubting it’ll catch CAP, but shouldn’t we hold off on calling it a flop until it at least opens in Japan next month? ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2011, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/153 "2011-08-28T19:54:27Z")
I saw _Cap_ and _Thor_, liked both. Plan to catch _Green Lantern_, _Cowboys,_ and _X-Men_ on HBO whenever they hit it. Dunno anything about _Priest_. Marvel is sitting pretty, though…_Avengers_ is going to be a license to print money for them. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2011, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/154 "2011-08-28T20:17:39Z")
I saw _Priest_. It’s not a must-see movie. Some good special effects and fight scenes but that’s about it. Maggie Q needs to get a better agent. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2011, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/155 "2011-08-28T23:16:33Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > And – look, I’m with you in doubting it’ll catch CAP, but shouldn’t we hold off on calling it a flop until it at least opens in Japan next month? Well, I don’t want to put much meaning in box office grosses. As I said, most of the profit comes off the back end. But the rule of thumb is that a movie has to earn 2 1/2 times its production budget to break even. That’s because grosses are split with the theaters themselves, marketing budgets have skyrocketed with campaigns all over the world, and most powerful directors and actors take points off the gross. So C&A has to get to $400,000,000 worldwide to break even. It won’t come close. By that standard it’s easy to call it a huge flop, worse than Green Lantern. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2011, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/156 "2011-08-29T00:40:34Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > So C&A has to get to $400,000,000 worldwide to break even. It won’t come close. By that standard it’s easy to call it a huge flop, worse than Green Lantern. Worse? By the 2.5 rubric, Green Lantern needs to get to $500,000,000 worldwide to break even; I don’t see that GL will necessarily miss that closer than C&A will miss $400,000,000. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2011, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/157 "2011-08-29T02:03:33Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Worse? By the 2.5 rubric, Green Lantern needs to get to $500,000,000 worldwide to break even; I don’t see that GL will necessarily miss that closer than C&A will miss $400,000,000. So they both flopped at the box office. I’d still rather have a piece of GL just for the money that the [tie-ins](http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2011-06-16-green-lantern-marketing_n.htm) brought in. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2011, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/158 "2011-08-29T02:32:06Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Well, I don’t want to put much meaning in box office grosses. As I said, most of the profit comes off the back end. > > But the rule of thumb is that a movie has to earn 2 1/2 times its production budget to break even. That’s because grosses are split with the theaters themselves, marketing budgets have skyrocketed with campaigns all over the world, and most powerful directors and actors take points off the gross. > > So C&A has to get to $400,000,000 worldwide to break even. It won’t come close. By that standard it’s easy to call it a huge flop, worse than Green Lantern. But studio accounting works both ways. Production budgets are often artificially inflated. A studio will finance a film production and then the film production will pay the studio for the use of its facilities. So a portion of the production money ends up cycling back to the studio. This kind of arrangement benefits the studio because it makes more money in the real sense than it makes in the legal sense. And a lot of payouts are based on the film’s profits and this reduces them on paper. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2011, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/159 "2011-08-29T13:28:23Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > So they both flopped at the box office. I’d still rather have a piece of GL just for the money that the [tie-ins](http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2011-06-16-green-lantern-marketing_n.htm) brought in. If we start down that road, though, GL apparently shelled out an extra $100 million on advertising; C&A apparently made do with a $30 million budget. If that’s true, then I’m honestly not sure which film is the worse return on investment – and that’s with C&A yet to open in a bunch of markets where GL has already run its course. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2011, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931/160 "2011-08-30T04:42:06Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > And no reports are yet in for COWBOYS in Thailand, where CAP has also racked up millions. _Cowboys and Aliens_ just opened here last Thursday, but no one seems excited about it. _Captain America_ did pretty well I think; the wife and I liked it better than _Thor_, which did so-so. I don’t know anyone who went to see _Green Lantern_. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/which-superhero-flick-will-bomb-the-worst-this-year/576931.md?page=9)