Not sure I agree with this. The current situation is not normal. Putin knows the Obama regime is in it’s death spiral. Putin has far less reason than normal to engage in tit for tat measures. Had this been Obama’s first 100 days im sure Putin’s reaction would be far different.
This is basically suggesting that the CIA, FBI, and all the other U.S. intelligence agencies that came to a consensus that Russia was likely behind the hacking/spearphishing are involved in a conspiracy to either lie wholesale or frame Russia. This is Donald Trump’s position.
And when did Russia get a massive benefit of the doubt all of a sudden? The same country that assassinated a former intelligence agent in London with a radioactive material in 2006. The same country that likely poisoned then-Ukrainian presidential candidate and later president Victor Yuschenko and almost killed him in 2004. The same country that has sheltered Edward Snowden, not because they agree with his stances on government transparency and privacy rights, but because he embarrassed the U.S. on the international stage. The same country where leading opposition leaders, journalists, and human rights advocates mysteriously get killed in seemingly random attacks, most of which are blamed on Chechen terrorists. It’s funny how those damn Chechens always target the enemies of the regime they hate.
A regime that is capable of all of that is more than capable of doing a few spearphishing attacks and leaking the results to Wikileaks. Pretending like anyone could have conducted these attacks with targets this deliberate whose contents were then strategically provided to Wikileaks rather than some kind of ransomware or other money-making scheme is a bit disingenuous.
For what reason? Demanding attention like an ignored child is not a good diplomatic look.
Er, no.
Now, yours truly, for example, would’ve been fine with Obama doing nothing if our Prez could confidently mention that Putin is on his way out the door and the important thing is starting off on the right foot with someone we’ll be doing business with for maybe four or maybe eight years, and not overreacting to someone stamping his feet and saying “look at me” before he finishes sliding into irrelevance – but I didn’t vote for Trump, and so can view things with commendable impartiality and a great deal of wisdom; and I can but hope that there are “plenty of folks” like me.
Is it your opinion, though, that Putin not expelling US diplomats is a move that makes Obama look weak?
It’s entirely possible that the CIA and FBI are mistaken about the identity of the hackers, but genuinely so. They don’t have to be lying. They could just be wrong. And given how we’ve seen probabilities play out this year (remember when HRC was “likely” to win the election?), I am surprised you’re not a bit more cautious about something that’s labeled “likely”.
It’s entirely possible that Russia was behind the DNC and Podesta “hacks”. It’s not a certainty.
Your last paragraph suggests some laser-like focus on an attempt to disrupt HRC’s campaign (“targets this deliberate” and “strategically”). I don’t think it was anything like that. It’s more like a shotgun approach, or casting a wide net, or throwing a bunch of shit at the wall and seeing what sticks. They happened to get lucky that John Podesta is stupid, but it’s not like he was their only target. The JAR says the hacks were “part of an ongoing campaign of cyber-enabled operations directed at the U.S. government and its citizens. These cyber operations have included spearphishing campaigns targeting government organizations, critical infrastructure entities, think tanks, universities, political organizations, and corporations leading to the theft of information.” That sounds a lot like fairly routine spy shit, not some special effort in 2016 just to ruin HRC’s big day.
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The FBI and CIA making a claim backed by double plus secret sources that they can’t reveal but that REALLY REALLY backs what they’re saying has gotten a massive doubt from me for decades, and the doubt got a big boost with the WMD lies that the CIA concocted for Bush. This doesn’t have anything to do with Russia’s credibility, it’s the CIA and FBI saying something politically convenient for the administration with no backing but information that they supposedly can’t share.
Listing bad stuff about Russia doesn’t actually make CIA and FBI reports that are convenient for the administration and backed by super-secret information that we should believe because ‘gosh golly gee, we can’t reveal any sources, but trust us, we’re from the government, we’d never lie to you’. I would be more inclined to believe this thing if the FBI and CIA weren’t ‘supporting’ it with ever-so-convenient secret information.
While you’re criticizing Russia for sheltering him, I will point out that he revealed a US program that did far more massive spying on US citizens than the Russians are alleged to have done. I can’t really buy the whole outrage from Obama and the Democrats about this when they have are clearly fine with a much worse spying program directed at American citizens as long as it isn’t pointed at them personally.
I’d say that, try as I might to play devil’s advocate – yeah, it does.
The case for it is, Obama is trying to send a message, and if Putin acts like he cares, then Obama could look strong – and, since Putin doesn’t seem to care, Obama could say “Yeah, well, I don’t care if you care, because, uh, what I care about here is doing damage to Russian interests – because that’s a subset of the other thing I care about, which is furthering American interests.”
And, see, that fails – utterly – if what he’s doing is set to be reversed in two or three weeks by Obama’s successor. If it’s temporary to the point of being ephemeral.
I’m genuinely trying to see how it could look strong, and the best I can do is think of how it’d be if things were different: if Trump had said he’d give a lot of thought to Obama’s decision and may let it stand; or if he’d simply kept quiet, and we could maybe infer it. But, no: try as I might, I truly can’t see Putin’s response as anything but a dismissive response following an accurate read of the situation.
Rolling Stone also picks up on the point about the non-evidence of Russian involvement:
You know your “it was the Russians” line is on shaky ground when Rolling Stone, that paragon of journalistic accuracy, is pointing out the flaws in the story. Rolling fuckin’ Stone!
You gotta love the Rolling Stone’s “Many reporters I know are quietly freaking out about having to go through that again.” line.
The “quietly” part, specifically. Because you definitely can’t be loud about it, you’d stand out of the herd!
Rolling Stone is actually a reasonable source of journalism, and I do tend to agree with them here.
…you’ve got it all wrong. The future is “personally curated propaganda.” The future is the line between business and politics to be increasingly blurred, for international diplomacy to happen behind closed doors, off-the-record, with a handshake and a wink, beyond public scrutiny.
Unless you’re a dean at U-Va that had your life ruined by their #FakeNews. But yes, I agree with them here too.
ETA: cite (WaPo is a pretty shitty source these days too, but I don’t expect that the major elements here will be disputed)
So we’re not to believe anything the CIA says or does because “remember the WMDs!” Well, why even have a CIA? Just close it down then?
There is a middle ground between accepting everything the CIA says as gospel truth and not believing anything they say. I recommend it.
I think the idea is, don’t blandly accept the CIA’s conclusions, but consider their info. Of course, as mere private citizens, we can’t consider their info – but the President, and the President-elect, they can hear the conclusion and say “uh, yeah, well, I’m listening, but give me a detailed briefing along with the conclusion.”
Now, if the President-elect gets that detailed briefing and then says he hasn’t seen enough details to justify the conclusion – well, then, we have to decide whether he’s too stupid to pay attention to briefings, or whether he understands just fine but is too dishonest to be trusted, or whether the CIA maybe didn’t have the details. But absent that, we should still inarguably still have a CIA because, hey, they can put together a detailed briefing instead of just a conclusion – even if only the folks who won elections get to see details instead of just conclusions.
My original post mentioned “except for the U Va. story,” but I didn’t want to throw this thread off-topic. And there’s issues with the El Chapo story. But they’re not exceptional in having major fuck-ups like this, so I consider them generally trustworthy, which works for your general point. I just got the vibe that you were knocking them as a well-known source of trash “journalism” like the Enquirer (which, yes, occasionally gets something right.)
This I agree with, and I should hope that folks from both sides of the aisle exercise a warranted skepticism, both as in the WMD case and in the current one.
I want to know if any information he revealed had anyone killed with a polonium tipped umbrella.
Or a Toragev.