# Whither Scotland? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 2, 2014, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261 "2014-09-02T16:28:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2014, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/21 "2014-09-02T23:02:26Z")
I think T.H. White was right when he used Merlin as his mouthpiece (transparently in connection with the Irish Question) in _The Once and Future King:_ > [@](#): > > “About three thousand years ago,” [Merlin] said [to Arthur], “the country you are riding through belonged to a Gaelic race who fought with copper hatchets. Two thousand years ago they were hunted west by another Gaelic race with bronze swords. A thousand years ago there was a Teuton invasion by people who had iron weapons, but it didn’t reach the whole of the [British] Isles because the Romans arrived in the middle and got mixed up with it. The Romans went away about eight hundred years ago, and then another Teuton invasion – of people mainly called Saxons – drove the whole rag-bag west as usual. The Saxons were just beginning to settle down when your father the Conqueror arrived with his pack of Normans, and that is where we are today. Robin Wood was a Saxon partizan.” > > \ > > “Uther,” he said at length, “your lamented father, was an aggressor. So were his predecessors the Saxons. But if we go on living backward like that, we shall never come to the end of it. The Old Ones themselves were aggressors, against the earlier race of copper hatchets, and even the hatchet fellows were aggressors, against some earlier crew of esquimaux who lived on shells. You simply go on and on, until you come to Cain and Abel. But the point is that the Saxon Conquest did suceed, and so did the Norman Conquest of the Saxons. Your father settled the unfortunate Saxons long ago, however brutally he did it, and when a great many years have passed one ought to be ready to accept a status quo. Also I would like to point out that the Norman Conquest was a process of welding small units into bigger ones – while the present revolt of the Gaelic Confederation is a process of disintegration. They want to smash up what we may call the United Kingdom into a lot of piffling little kingdoms of their own. That is wny their reason is not what you might call a good one.” > > He scrathed his chin again, and became wrathful. > > “I never could stomach these nationalists,” he exclaimed. “The destiny of Man is to unite, not to divide. If you keep on dividing you end up as a collection of monkeys throwing nuts at each other out of separate trees.” ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2014, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/22 "2014-09-02T23:11:02Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I think T.H. White was right when he used Merlin as his mouthpiece (transparently in connection with the Irish Question) in _The Once and Future King:_ Do you think you’ll be able to translate this interjection into something that is remotely relevant? Difficulty: demonstrate some knowledge of the topic at hand: something non-mythical, perhaps something from within living memory? ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/23 "2014-09-03T00:22:31Z")
EU membership is an interesting question. I don’t think there is any precedent for what happens in the case of a secession of part of a state that is a member of the EU. If Scotland becomes and independent state, it will have to first of all become internationally recognised as such and then it will be in a position to negotiate its own international treaties with other states from scratch. Presumably the EU is at the top of the list. But the accession of a state into the EU is an established process which takes years of formal deliberation. Certainly a lot longer than the 18 months between the vote and the envisioned Independence Day. Scotland would first need to establish a central bank and have control over its financial affairs. All the other states have to agree to accept the new member…and that might run into problems with members like Spain who may well find pressure to extend independence to Catalonia. Spain does not have the same accommodating policy as the UK. It fears that it will be followed by other regions with a strong identity. This same concern over separatism is shared by other states in the EU. [http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-spain-warning-over-eu-entry-1-3292575](http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-spain-warning-over-eu-entry-1-3292575) So…Scotland has to convince the EU for special treatment. This makes it highly dependent on having financial independence in place. So it has to convince the rest of the UK that financial union is in both countries best interests. Or, create their own currency and their own central bank. If Scotland finds itself outside of the EU, that will have a significant affect on its economy. It will face taxes on exports and find it more difficult to raise loans. There will be no free movement of labour and there will be border controls between Scotland and England. The period between the vote and the planned date for independence seems very short time to deal with all these issues. Moreover, the UK will be having a General Election in May 2015, so it will need to renegotiate with another UK government and it will face its own Scottish General Election after Independence. A challenging timetable and a lot of international diplomacy will be required to get the agreement of other countries and there are no guarantees that it will be successful. The attitude of the next UK government will be crucial. It could take a strong line and say that Independent Scotland should create its own currency and have its own central bank. It would be very difficult to argue against that. That issue could be very divisive for the Nationalists. I am sure these issues could be resolved in the longer term, but timetable is very ambitious and the risk is: a Scottish economy that gets into serious difficulty from the start. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/24 "2014-09-03T00:32:28Z")
filmstar-en: I think instead that both successor states will be recognized as part of the EU and that the primary negotiations will be financial (how much of current contributions will now come from Scotland…) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/25 "2014-09-03T00:36:05Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Do you think you’ll be able to translate this interjection into something that is remotely relevant? Difficulty: demonstrate some knowledge of the topic at hand: something non-mythical, perhaps something from within living memory? It’s just an illustration of the point. A parable. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/26 "2014-09-03T02:28:56Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > filmstar-en: > I think instead that both successor states will be recognized as part of the EU and that the primary negotiations will be financial (how much of current contributions will now come from Scotland…) How can that be so. The UK has signed the Treaty of Rome, it already exists. An Independent Scotland does not exist yet and would have to first be incorporated with have a constitution declaring its territory and sovereignty, then it can proceed with negotiating treaties with other states…and they in turn have to agree. The qualifications for acceding to the EU by new member states are quite exacting. [http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/chapters-of-the-acquis/index\_en.htm](http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/chapters-of-the-acquis/index_en.htm) In any case…the Conservatives might elected on an anti-EU ticket. They are almost committed to a referendum in the UK on EU membership. More reason for Scotland to have its own currency and central bank. But the SNP talks of ‘monetary union’ with the UK and the use of Sterling as its currency, albeit with no central bank of its own. I don’t see that as tenable. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/27 "2014-09-03T02:32:42Z")
> [@filmstar-en](#): > > In any case…the Conservatives might elected on an anti-EU ticket. They are almost committed to a referendum in the UK on EU membership. More reason for Scotland to have its own currency and central bank. But the SNP talks of ‘monetary union’ with the UK and the use of Sterling as its currency, albeit with no central bank of its own. I don’t see that as tenable. Why wouldn’t it be tenable? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/28 "2014-09-03T02:33:03Z")
Whither Scotland? [Thither.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=713691)😉 ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/29 "2014-09-03T03:10:26Z")
filmstar-en: See this article, for example: "Which brings us to the Vienna Convention. Or more specifically, two Vienna Conventions. One is “on Succession of States in respect of Treaties 1978”. The other is “on Succession of States in respect of State Property, Archives and Debts 1983”. (Don’t go! The UN legal stuff will be over soon…) The former of these two makes for alarming reading for Better Together. It identifies two kinds of successor state - “newly independent states” and “cases of separation of parts of a state”. The first refers to states subject to colonial rule – they managed to escape the clutches of some empire or other (that’s not us). They get a clean slate, no remaining treaty obligation. The other refers to countries which simply choose to break up. So here’s the surprise: article 34(1) states that all other new states remain bound by the treaty obligations of the state from which they separated. So, eh, we’d still be in the EU? Go and look for yourself here . The other one basically says ‘you split up the assets in proportion to the liabilities’. It’s a bit vague and I’ve already heard it interpreted by different people in very different ways. Have a look at it here . " > **[C'mon Scotland](https://www.cmonscotland.org/?_escaped_fragment_=Successor-State%2Fc112t%2FF59C74E6-7610-479A-921F-38CC4ABBC149)** > > Political blog on why Scotland can face independence with confidence ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/30 "2014-09-03T03:24:33Z")
That would work, if the UK was a party to the Vienna Convention on succession of States in Respect of Treaties. It’s not. Or, if the Vienna Convention on Succession of States in respect of State Property, Archives and Debts was in force, or, if the UK was a party to it. It’s not and it’s not. Which is why, if you read the next paragraph of the thing you cited, he says as much: > [@](#): > > So Scotland gets Sterling as of right or it has no obligation to take any debt. And we’re still in the EU. No, wait, what’s this on page one? “Done at Vienna on 8 April 1983. Not yet in force.” Or the treaties one? That is in force. In Iraq, Bosnia, the Ukraine, Egypt and some other places. Not here though. In fact there is no binding international law after all. All that serious-sounding stuff from Alastair Darling about ‘international laws and norms’ is basically just a bluff. He presumably thinks if he says it with sufficient ‘gravitas’ we’ll all just fall for it. > > Sorry to have dragged you through that but it’s kind of important. I just needed you to believe me when I tell you that there are no rules at all, we’re all making this up as we go along and anyone that tells you there is a ‘correct’ international legal position is wrong. Every breakup of a state in recent history has followed its own path. Some inherited the rights of the previous state (Czech Republic and Slovakia) some didn’t (former Soviet states). Some took some debt (Baltic States) some didn’t (African independence). Some got access to their previous currency (Slovakia) some didn’t (Slovenia). ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 9:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/31 "2014-09-03T09:55:13Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Why wouldn’t it be tenable? If an Independent Scotland uses Sterling as its currency, it will defer all decisions regarding the currency to another country, the UK and its central Bank of England. The UK will not be obliged to take the economy in Scotland into account when making any of its economic decisions only that of the UK voters. It would not be economically independent. That may be a big sticking point with EU membership. If the UK decides to have a vote on EU membership after the 2015 election and Scotland wants to stay in, there would mean there would have to be a tax border between the UK and Scotland which would have a dramatic effect on trade. An Independent Scotland should have its own currency and its own central bank. The path to this fiscal independence has not been worked out and there is no agreement about this. So that will probably be very high on the agenda in the negotiations with the UK. However politicians in the UK will represent the interests of UK own voters. The economy of Scotland will only be a concern if it has a bearing on the UK economy and Scotland is very much smaller than the UK. There could be great disagreement within Scotland regarding its negotiating position (I am sure some would not be happy being dependent on the rest of the UK.) None of the UK parties have said what their position will be regarding Scotland in the next General election. Someone has to pay… ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/32 "2014-09-03T11:05:41Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > filmstar-en: > I think instead that both successor states will be recognized as part of the EU and that the primary negotiations will be financial (how much of current contributions will now come from Scotland…) I used to believe this, im not so sure now. Countries such as Spain have their own breakaway movements. Spain does not wish to encourage a Basque country breakaway. They will make it as difficult as possible for Scotland to join. I can see us join eventually, but would not be surprised if Scotland had to wait for a prolonged period of time. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/33 "2014-09-03T13:04:48Z")
Even if Scotland is not granted full membership of the EU as a pragmatic acceptance of reality, it should not be overlooked that it will still be part of the European Economic Area > **[European Economic Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area)** > > The European Economic Area (EEA) was established via the Agreement on the European Economic Area, an international agreement which enables the extension of the European Union's single market to member states of the European Free Trade Association. The EEA links the EU member states and three EFTA states (Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway) into an internal market governed by the same basic rules. These rules aim to enable free movement of persons, goods, services, and capital within the Europe... "The European Economic Area (EEA) provides for the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital through three of four member states of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) (Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway),[4] and 27 of 28 member states of the European Union (EU), with Croatia provisionally applying the agreement pending its ratification by all EEA countries.[2][5] It was established on 1 January 1994 following an agreement between the member states and the European Community, which later became the EU.[4] It allows EFTA states which join to participate in the EU’s internal market without being members of the EU. They adopt almost all EU legislation related to the single market, except laws on agriculture and fisheries. However, they also contribute to and influence the formation of new EEA relevant policies and legislation at an early stage as part of a formal decision-shaping process.[6] One EFTA member, Switzerland, has not joined the EEA but has a series of bilateral agreements, including a free trade agreement, with the EU." ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/34 "2014-09-03T13:06:53Z")
Even if Scotland is not immediately admitted as a full member of the EU, every Scot will for their lifetime have access to the EU as persons because of their British Citizenship. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/35 "2014-09-03T13:12:15Z")
> [@ticker](#): > > More tellingly, so do the bookmakers. Bookmakers set odds not on their assessment of the likelihood of a result, but on the potential losses from existing wagers in the book, thus reflecting the thoughts of all the participants. In this case many of the gamblers will be from Non-Scottish punters, which separates the process from the electorate making the decision. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/36 "2014-09-03T13:42:29Z")
We don’t know if it’ll be part of the EEA or not at this point, and we don’t know whether or not independent Scots will continue to have British citizenship. Both of those might be true but we don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/37 "2014-09-03T14:20:37Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > We don’t know if it’ll be part of the EEA or not at this point, and we don’t know whether or not independent Scots will continue to have British citizenship. Both of those might be true but we don’t know. Membership of the EEA is automatic as Scotland is eligible for EFTA membership. All Scots currently have and will continue to have British passports by birth or naturalisation. This is just scare mongering. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/38 "2014-09-03T15:07:37Z")
What does “Scotland is elibile to join EFTA mean?” Scotland would have to be considered and accepted for EFTA like anybody else. And how am I “scaremongering”? All I’m saying is that we don’t know yet what Scotland’s international status will be if it gets independence. None of that is settled yet, and anyone who tries to tell you anything with cerainty is quite wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/39 "2014-09-03T16:12:11Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > What does “Scotland is elibile to join EFTA mean?” Scotland would have to be considered and accepted for EFTA like anybody else. And how am I “scaremongering”? All I’m saying is that we don’t know yet what Scotland’s international status will be if it gets independence. None of that is settled yet, and anyone who tries to tell you anything with cerainty is quite wrong. I live in Scotland. I have been British for over six decades; why would I cease to be just because The country I live in becomes independent. If I were living in the US or any other non UK country, I would still be British. Why should I be denied citizenship merely for living in Scotland, rather than living in France, the USA or Australia? Entry to EFTA requires little more than agreeing to their rules and being a European country as with Iceland; it is unlikely that Scotland would be the only applicant ever refused admission. So passports and EEA membership is as certain as it can be. Just scare stories. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/40 "2014-09-03T16:14:23Z")
We’ve been discussing this over in Elections since January: [Scotland's referendum on Independence 18 Sept 2014 - Politics & Elections - Straight Dope Message Board](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=713691) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261.md?page=3)