# Whither Scotland? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 2, 2014, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261 "2014-09-02T16:28:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 32
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/621 "2014-09-10T19:50:24Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > The U.S. coverage of the polls stated that they did not include undecided voters. Is that so? That is correct. Polls such as this normally exclude “don’t knows” ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/622 "2014-09-10T19:50:49Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > You can’t infer what non-voters want, only that they don’t care much either way. It’s my opinion that a decision as monumental as independence should only be made with the clear, express desire of a majority of the population. That’s been the standard at the other referenda, and it’s baffling to me that it isn’t at this one. ---
**Author:** ![PaulParkhead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@PaulParkhead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PaulParkhead)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/623 "2014-09-10T19:52:19Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > It’s my opinion that a decision as monumental as independence should only be made with the clear, express desire of a majority of the population. That’s been the standard at the other referenda, and it’s baffling to me that it isn’t at this one. Which referenda are you thinking of? ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/624 "2014-09-10T19:52:40Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > It’s my opinion that a decision as monumental as independence should only be made with the clear, express desire of a majority of the population. That’s been the standard at the other referenda, and it’s baffling to me that it isn’t at this one. There is a forum for humble opinions. Here we are concerned with Great Debates. Your personal beliefs versus the Edinburgh Agreement is not a Great Debate. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/625 "2014-09-10T19:57:41Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > “Everybody” except half the Scottish electorate. It’s called democracy. > [@Pjen](#): > > Straw man. I have never said “majority of the electorate” merely majority as it is usually used in votes- majority of votes cast. Technically true, I guess, you said half. Which is still false, based on current polls. I’m well aware of what the rules are here - a majority of 50%+1 begins the process of independence. It’s my opinion that that is too weak a mandate, but it’s not my decision to make. That said, were it an issue, I’d support the UK government changing their mind and respecting the wishes of the majority of Scottish UK citizens that didn’t vote for it. It’s only likely to become an issue if between now and independence a Scottish government, or a majority of Scottish MPs at Westminster, are elected that oppose independence. As could happen, if the majority of Scots who don’t vote for independence feel strongly enough about it. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/626 "2014-09-10T20:00:37Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > It’s my opinion that a decision as monumental as independence should only be made with the clear, express desire of a majority of the population. That’s been the standard at the other referenda, and it’s baffling to me that it isn’t at this one. Your humble opinion again. The 1979 Scottish devolution required a majority of votes cast and 40% of all potential votes. It failed by a few percent. The EU referendum in the seventies was a simple majority. Referenda in the USA and Switzerland are simple majorities. Most referenda and plebiscites through history have been simple majorities. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/627 "2014-09-10T20:01:00Z")
> [@PaulParkhead](#): > > Which referenda are you thinking of? Sorry, I’ve just checked and it was a 40% vote, not 50% that was required. I still don’t think that’s sufficient for independence. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/628 "2014-09-10T20:02:21Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > There is a forum for humble opinions. It’s fortunate my opinions are anything but humble, then. As, clearly, are yours. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/629 "2014-09-10T20:06:00Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Technically true, I guess, you said half. Which is still false, based on current polls. > > I’m well aware of what the rules are here - a majority of 50%+1 begins the process of independence. It’s my opinion that that is too weak a mandate, but it’s not my decision to make. That said, were it an issue, I’d support the UK government changing their mind and respecting the wishes of the majority of Scottish UK citizens that didn’t vote for it. > > It’s only likely to become an issue if between now and independence a Scottish government, or a majority of Scottish MPs at Westminster, are elected that oppose independence. As could happen, if the majority of Scots who don’t vote for independence feel strongly enough about it. You are a slippery one. I was talking about a potential result. One poll has been 51/49 YES, one 50/50 and the latest is 53/47 for NO. Your suggestion of ignoring the result would result in insurrection. The next Scottish election cannot happen until May 2016. Scottish MPs have no great say in the matter whether they are YES or NO. The UK and Scottish Government have signed the Edinburgh Agreement. Overturning it would be disastrous for the UK. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/630 "2014-09-10T20:07:46Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Sorry, I’ve just checked and it was a 40% vote, not 50% that was required. > > I still don’t think that’s sufficient for independence. About the only referendum requiring a super majority of votes cast, and you got that wrong. ---
**Author:** ![PaulParkhead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@PaulParkhead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PaulParkhead)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/631 "2014-09-10T20:13:59Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Sorry, I’ve just checked and it was a 40% vote, not 50% that was required. > > I still don’t think that’s sufficient for independence. You’re thinking of the first devolution referendum. The one that took place in the 90s did not have any such requirement. Wisely so, given the outcry that the 40% rule caused. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/632 "2014-09-10T20:17:27Z")
Sky news is running the latest poll by Survation as 47/53and the Daily Mail is saying it is a boost for NO. What they are both missing is that the previous Survation poll taken after the second debate NO meltdown was also 47/53! Not exactly a boost then. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/633 "2014-09-10T20:20:10Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Your suggestion of ignoring the result would result in insurrection. The next Scottish election cannot happen until May 2016. Scottish MPs have no great say in the matter whether they are YES or NO. The UK and Scottish Government have signed the Edinburgh Agreement. Overturning it would be disastrous for the UK. It wouldn’t be a problem if it turns out that the majority of Scots are, in 18 months time, against independence. Which if they realise the cost and consequences, and have the slightest bit of sense, they will be. The idea that there would be insurrection is absurd. ---
**Author:** ![PaulParkhead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@PaulParkhead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PaulParkhead)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/634 "2014-09-10T20:23:59Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > It wouldn’t be a problem if it turns out that the majority of Scots are, in 18 months time, against independence. Which if they realise the cost and consequences, and have the slightest bit of sense, they will be. > > The idea that there would be insurrection is absurd. _Of course_ it would be a problem. I don’t know about insurrection, but I think it’s safe to say that the rUK refusing to honour the Edinburgh Agreement would upset a lot of people who voted “no” as well as everyone who voted “yes”. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/635 "2014-09-10T20:34:02Z")
> [@PaulParkhead](#): > > _Of course_ it would be a problem. I don’t know about insurrection, but I think it’s safe to say that the rUK refusing to honour the Edinburgh Agreement would upset a lot of people who voted “no” as well as everyone who voted “yes”. You think that, in 18 months time, there will be significant amounts of people who don’t want independence but nevertheless want the UK to make Scotland independent? That’s borderline incoherent. My hypothetical is that over the next 18 months, more and more people would see through Salmond’s lies and realise how much independence would harm Scotland, and become opposed to independence. Were this to happen, the UK would be outright wrong in allowing independence to happen. If the population of Scotland want independence, they should get it. If they don’t, or if their wishes are unclear, they shouldn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/636 "2014-09-10T20:40:04Z")
> [@PaulParkhead](#): > > Which would probably, of course, be the real reason said partner broke up with you in the first place. > > Luckily for all concerned, I suspect the rUK government would not act out of spite. Not really. One can love a partner; when they choose to become ex-partners, feelings change. ---
**Author:** ![PaulParkhead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@PaulParkhead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PaulParkhead)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/637 "2014-09-10T20:43:23Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > You think that, in 18 months time, there will be significant amounts of people who don’t want independence but nevertheless want the UK to make Scotland independent? That’s borderline incoherent. > > My hypothetical is that over the next 18 months, more and more people would see through Salmond’s lies and realise how much independence would harm Scotland, and become opposed to independence. Were this to happen, the UK would be outright wrong in allowing independence to happen. > > If the population of Scotland want independence, they should get it. If they don’t, or if their wishes are unclear, they shouldn’t. It’s perfectly coherent. Those who vote against independence are, presumably, doing so on the basis that they trust Westminster to keep its word. If Westminster, presented with a “yes” vote, states in effect “we know we signed the Edinburgh Agreement, but we had our fingers crossed hahahaha!” then a number of those who voted “no” might well rethink that trust. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/638 "2014-09-10T20:52:38Z")
> [@PaulParkhead](#): > > It’s perfectly coherent. Those who vote against independence are, presumably, doing so on the basis that they trust Westminster to keep its word. If Westminster, presented with a “yes” vote, states in effect “we know we signed the Edinburgh Agreement, but we had our fingers crossed hahahaha!” then a number of those who voted “no” might well rethink that trust. In which case they wouldn’t be against independence at that point :smack: ---
**Author:** ![PaulParkhead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@PaulParkhead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PaulParkhead)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/639 "2014-09-10T20:57:58Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > In which case they wouldn’t be against independence at that point :smack: Exactly. People who were against independence, and voted accordingly, might change their minds if Westminster demonstrated that it could not be trusted to honour its agreements. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2014, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/640 "2014-09-10T21:34:19Z")
> [@PaulParkhead](#): > > Exactly. People who were against independence, and voted accordingly, might change their minds if Westminster demonstrated that it could not be trusted to honour its agreements. So what should happen if a strong anti-independence movement springs up between now and then? Should they be ignored? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261.md?page=31) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261.md?page=33)