# Whither Scotland? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 2, 2014, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261 "2014-09-02T16:28:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 34
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/661 "2014-09-11T10:45:40Z")
> [@amanset](#): > > Yeah that’s the fella, although it was on his forum (which I’m not sure if he even has anymore), not face to face. He actually ended up banning me because my support for Scotland irritated him so much. He’s a weird one. Still, his crowd-funded website has done _very_ well. I wonder if he has moved back to Scotland so he can actually vote? ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/662 "2014-09-11T11:01:45Z")
Credit Suisse issued an advisory note yesterday morning on their assessment of an independent Scotland’s economy, and it doesn’t pull any punches: > [@](#): > > In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the Bank of England move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus). The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn. In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment. On Scottish currency: > [@](#): > > Currency options: We place a 40% probability on a peg to the pound (which we think would ultimately not hold) and a 10% probability on a freely floating currency. We place a 50% probability on a currency arrangement which would avoid devaluation against sterling: of this, we place a 25% probability on a formal currency union and a 25% probability on a Hong Kong-style currency board. We see a \<1% chance of a Euro peg. > Significant deposit flight would require Scottish banks to offer much higher deposit rates, which would in turn increase borrowing costs for Scottish entities and individuals. This, in our view, would increase the risk of a severe economic downturn in Scotland post-independence. > With North Sea oil output in decline (with the Office for Budget Responsibility calculating that output has declined by an average of 7.8% per year since 1999 and recent estimates by Sir Ian Wood putting North Sea oil reserves at 15-16.5bn barrels versus estimates by the Scottish government of 24bn barrels), it is clear that the non-oil manufacturing base in Scotland would need to be clearly competitive in order to attract in capital. Ouch. Meanwhile [a soft bank run](http://www.thewestwire.com/billions-withdrawn-from-scotlands-banks-ahead-of-independence-vote/) is underway in Scotland as billions of pounds of assets are fleeing the country, and contracts are having clauses inserted into them that renders them void if Scotland votes for independence. More and more banks are issuing statements detailing their contingency plans if a successful independence vote should happen, with [Clydesdale](http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140911/pdf/42s50f2lsx4bys.pdf) joining the likes of Standard Life, Aberdeen Asset Management and Lloyds this morning in stating they will reincorporate in, or move their head offices to, England. ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/663 "2014-09-11T11:15:11Z")
> [@amanset](#): > > Yeah, this is my view as well. I don’t expect the rUK to go out of its way to make things hard for Scotland but Scotland also cannot assume that everything is going to go their way. > > Minor thing, btw, Pjen about citizenship law. It is minor as it doesn’t affect British Citizenship (and hence this discussion) but you are wrong about getting another nationality not being an issue in the modern world. There are many countries, including several in the EU, that do not accept dual citizenship and will take steps if they find you have done it. > > [Countries that Recognize Dual Citizenship - Immihelp](http://www.immihelp.com/citizenship/dual-citizenship-recognize-countries.html) I know that. We are talking about British Citizenship which has always been liberal on the matter. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/664 "2014-09-11T13:24:45Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > Well, it would have been better from a unionist perspective. Westminster could have deliberatively offered an utterly lousy deal so as to minimise the prospects of anyone voting to accept it. But precisely for that reason Salmond would never agree to such a process. As opposed to after a vote, when the UK can offer a “deliberately lousy” deal (which I would characterise as in the rUK’s interests rather than Scotland’s, rather than a sabotage attempt) with less reason to care about Scotland’s opinion, and less chance for Scotland to reject it? The problem is that Salmond is promising Scots things that, even if they’re possible, would be absolutely unacceptable to the UK, whether as part of a union or as separate countries, and will no doubt spin any attempt by the UK to protect its own interests as “neo-colonialism”. > [@](#): > > Plus, his bargaining power and status when he already has a mandate for independence is immeasurably greater. Even if Westminster had not been quite as Macchievellian as I am certain they would have been, Salmond would not get the post possible deal for Scotland in such a process. He won’t get the best possible deal for Scotland in any case, because the UK won’t give up many of the things he thinks it should. At best, there will be some concessions from the UK, but really, we have no great incentive to make a good deal for Scotland. The UK will have already been significantly harmed by a Yes vote, and will be more concerned with mitigating that harm than with Scotland’s interests. But the continued uncertainty is what’s causing so many problems at the moment. If there was a clear plan for independence, businesses wouldn’t be planning to move out of Scotland, and investment in the UK wouldn’t be falling. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/665 "2014-09-11T13:30:50Z")
> [@Pjen](#): > > Continually reminding us that the unlikely and downright weird may happen is not argument. It is an irritating habit that stifles debate. If they were either unlikely or downright weird, you might have a point - although with something as important as independence every possibility should be investigated. However, the things I’m talking about are neither, they are very plausible consequences of the current vote and future negotiation. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/666 "2014-09-11T15:05:59Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > Credit Suisse issued an advisory note yesterday morning on their assessment of an independent Scotland’s economy, and it doesn’t pull any punches… Boy, I’ll say. Yikes. > [@Steophan](#): > > …The problem is that Salmond is promising Scots things that, even if they’re possible, would be absolutely unacceptable to the UK, whether as part of a union or as separate countries, and will no doubt spin any attempt by the UK to protect its own interests as “neo-colonialism”. > > He won’t get the best possible deal for Scotland in any case, because the UK won’t give up many of the things he thinks it should. At best, there will be some concessions from the UK, but really, we have no great incentive to make a good deal for Scotland. The UK will have already been significantly harmed by a Yes vote, and will be more concerned with mitigating that harm than with Scotland’s interests… Precisely. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/667 "2014-09-11T15:28:26Z")
Various groups have been trying to get as many people to register to vote as possible. It seems to have been a great success. > [@](#): > > This suggests that 97% of the total number of people eligible to vote have registered. > **[Scottish independence: More than 4.2 million voters register ahead of referendum](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29160535)** > > More than 4.2 million people have registered to vote in the independence referendum, making it the largest electorate ever in Scotland. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/668 "2014-09-11T15:31:54Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Well one did, and another that came out the same day didn’t. And today’s Survation poll gives “No” the nod 53/47 (excluding don’t knows). That’s still damn close. I would suggest that in looking at the polls as an aggregate, it would likely be wise to add a point or two to the “No” side. I suspect voters in referenda of this magnitude are somewhat more cavalier with what they’ll tell a pollster than what they’ll do at the polling station. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/669 "2014-09-11T15:32:20Z")
Cameron orders the Scottish flag to fly over 10 Downing Street until the vote: [Reuters | Breaking International News & Views](http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/09/uk-scotland-independence-flag-idUKKBN0H41DS20140909) ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/670 "2014-09-11T15:32:54Z")
[Royal Bank of Scotland plans move to England if country breaks away](http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/09/11/royal_bank_of_scotland_plans_move_to_england_if_country_breaks_away.html) > [@](#): > > LONDON—In a blow to the Scottish independence campaign, three top financial groups, including the Royal Bank of Scotland, say they will move headquarters to England should Scots vote to break away from the United Kingdom. > RBS, which has been based in Scotland since 1727, said Thursday it has drawn up contingency plans because being based in an independent Scotland would create uncertainties that could hurt its business and customers. > … > Thursday’s warning came a day after Lloyds Banking Group, which owns Halifax and Bank of Scotland, said it had plans in place to set up new “legal entities” in England if the Yes campaign succeeds. The financial group Standard Life also said it was ready to move parts of its business to England in case of independence. None of which is surprising to me. Montreal used to be the financial capital of Canada. Then in the 60s, the Quebec sovereigntist movement started, beginning to argue for separation. One of the major results: the money moved to Toronto, which is now Canada’s financial capital, thanks to the sovereigntists. Montreal no longer has that clout that it used to have. “There’s nothing in the world as nervous as a million dollars.” – Alan Blakeney, former Premier of Saskatchewan ---
**Author:** ![Pjen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Pjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pjen)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/671 "2014-09-11T15:40:09Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I would suggest that in looking at the polls as an aggregate, it would likely be wise to add a point or two to the “No” side. I suspect voters in referenda of this magnitude are somewhat more cavalier with what they’ll tell a pollster than what they’ll do at the polling station. That would be a good rule for most contests, but in this vote a large number of people saying don’t know are likely to be tribal labour voters who feel great loyalty to. TGMOO (this great movement of ours) but who harbour nationalist sympathies and want all Scottish decisions to be left of centre ones. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/672 "2014-09-11T15:41:59Z")
[BP and Shell](http://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/scottish-referendum-bp-and-shell-urge-scotland-to-vote-against-independence-9724063.html) have warned that Salmond has severely overestimated the amount of oil left in the North Sea and are urging Scots to remain part of the UK. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/673 "2014-09-11T15:43:06Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I would suggest that in looking at the polls as an aggregate, it would likely be wise to add a point or two to the “No” side. I suspect voters in referenda of this magnitude are somewhat more cavalier with what they’ll tell a pollster than what they’ll do at the polling station. Some have been saying something quite different–that the Yes voters are more passionate and will turn out in greater numbers than the No voters–thus it would be wise to add a few points to the “Yes” side. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/674 "2014-09-11T15:43:11Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I would suggest that in looking at the polls as an aggregate, it would likely be wise to add a point or two to the “No” side. I suspect voters in referenda of this magnitude are somewhat more cavalier with what they’ll tell a pollster than what they’ll do at the polling station. Yeah, I think that’s quite likely. There used to be the phenomenon of the “Shy Tory” in UK opinion polls in the late 80s/early 90s where Conservative support was regularly underrepresented in opinion polls. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/675 "2014-09-11T15:44:28Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > Some have been saying something quite different–that the Yes voters are more passionate and will turn out in greater numbers than the No voters–thus it would be wise to add a few points to the “Yes” side. It’s expected to be a turnout in the ~90% range. Pretty much everybody in the country eligible to vote is expected to turn out. Reversion to the status quo is also a well known phenomena in past British referenda. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/676 "2014-09-11T16:01:05Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > And today’s Survation poll gives “No” the nod 53/47 (excluding don’t knows). That’s still damn close. [Not by Canadian standards](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995#Result)! 6% split? Luxury! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/677 "2014-09-11T16:21:15Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > [BP and Shell](http://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/scottish-referendum-bp-and-shell-urge-scotland-to-vote-against-independence-9724063.html) have warned that Salmond has severely overestimated the amount of oil left in the North Sea and are urging Scots to remain part of the UK. Not been the best of Wednesday’s for Salmond. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/678 "2014-09-11T16:22:11Z")
As close as that vote was, Quebec has never come close to trying again, has it? The fever broke and the patient recovered. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/679 "2014-09-11T16:26:55Z")
Demographics are working against Quebec’s separatist movement. But who knows? In 20 years maybe it’ll be different. Like Scotland, Quebec’s separation movement isn’t based on an honest risk/reward assessment (anymore, anyway; 40-50 years ago things were different.) It’s purely emotional and symbolic. And emotions are hard to predict. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2014, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261/680 "2014-09-11T16:41:54Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > This is the problem with qualified majority requirements. The government may find itself having to implement a policy which has been democratically rejected at the polls. That’s a very uncomfortable position to be in. They did, as you point out, impose qualified majority requirements in the 1979 devolution referenda the result was that, despite securing a majority of the votes cast, the Scottish devolution proposal was not approved. That left a sour taste in everybody’s mouth (and didn’t lead to stability - devolution returned as an issue and now we are where we are). They have not made that mistake since, and they won’t again. > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > As close as that vote was, Quebec has never come close to trying again, has it? The fever broke and the patient recovered. Quebec had their a [first one in 1980\*](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1980#The_results) that didn’t have qualified majority requirements, yet devolution/separation returned as an issue. Even quicker than Scottish example despite the sour taste. \*eta: which was solidly defeated, yet… And I would suggest that a minimum “quorum” is not a horrible thing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261.md?page=33) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whither-scotland/697261.md?page=35)