# Who are the 10% of voters who'd normally support a Republican for president, but won't support Trump **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 25, 2016, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716 "2016-10-25T19:19:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/1 "2016-10-25T19:19:34Z")
In another thread I mentioned how a decent gop candidate would probably be getting 50% of the vote, while Trump is getting about 40%. McCain got 46% and Romney got 47%. So I think 50% is a fair estimate, possibly high (maybe a good gop candidate would be at 48%). But who are the 7-10% of voters (15-20% of Republicans) who would normally support the gop candidate but do not support Trump? College educated women? Moderates like Kasich? Evangelicals turned off by his endless affairs? Big business conservatives turned off by his economic populism? Minorities who are voting against the gop by even wider margins than normal due to all the attacks on minorities? Had anyone studied that 15-20% who’d normally vote Republican but who are not doing do for Trump? ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/2 "2016-10-25T19:27:07Z")
Whoever they are, I think we should just refer to them as _The Landsliders_. I think I saw The Landsliders at CBGBs back in '78. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/3 "2016-10-25T19:31:07Z")
Count me firmly in that 10% “Never Trump” camp. I’m writing in McMullin this year. And my mother, who has always been conservative Republican, says she will vote for Hillary. Most of the “Never Trump” GOPers that I know are young conservative Christians. AIUI, many of them are “Never Trump” because they believe that God will hold them accountable for their vote for such a vile person, or because Christians should not vote out of fear - i.e., should not fear a Hillary presidency because God is ultimately in control, even if Hillary’s views run counter to their beliefs - that God does not want them to take a “Lesser of two evils” mindset to the voting booth (that is, if Trump is even the lesser of two evils). ---
**Author:** ![Crybaby\_Boobie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crybaby_boobie/32/545_2.png) [@Crybaby\_Boobie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crybaby_Boobie)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/4 "2016-10-25T19:50:44Z")
My father, who is Republican enough that the local party chapter asked him to put up a Trump sign, declined and told me he’s probably writing me in. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/5 "2016-10-25T20:02:55Z")
Mormons seem to be part of it. My in laws are all Vietnamese immigrants who have always voted GOP due to their social conservatism and anti-communism, but are voting for Hillary this cycle. Unsurprisingly immigrants in general aren’t super nuts about the vocally anti-immigrant candidate. According to polling, I believe the largest shift has been amongst college educated whites though. I think there’s a pretty large contingent of educated Republicans who were OK with tolerating dog-whistle racism in order to get lower taxes or whatever, but can’t quite stomach fog-horn racism. ---
**Author:** ![sitchensis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sitchensis/32/4892_2.png) [@sitchensis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sitchensis)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/6 "2016-10-25T20:10:04Z")
I like guns and resource extraction but even before Trump I don’t know if I could support the last decade of Republican. ---
**Author:** ![SaharaTea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@SaharaTea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SaharaTea)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/7 "2016-10-25T20:11:50Z")
I would guess that having a college education and/or being female are the biggest markers in the never-Trump demographic. My mother’s faith is playing a role in her decision to sit this election out. She’s a Southern Baptist, and they split with the GOP over Syrian refugee resettlement. But she’s also educated and has the critical thinking skills to realize that Trump is a dangerous con artist. If it were anyone else she would happily vote Republican. ---
**Author:** ![Sterling\_Archer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Sterling\_Archer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterling_Archer)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/8 "2016-10-25T20:13:54Z")
It is a lot of conservative Christians who normally vote Republican without even considering an alternative, but are now voting 3rd party. (Hillary is still the devil) More than 70% of conservative evangelicals are still supporting Trump, but the 30% is a sizable chunk of the GOP base. ---
**Author:** ![Duke\_of\_Rat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Duke\_of\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke_of_Rat)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/9 "2016-10-25T20:23:30Z")
I won’t be voting for him, and it has nothing to do with education, religion, morals, race relations, immigration, taxes, emails, women, or the price of tea in China. I won’t vote for him because he’s an imbecile. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/10 "2016-10-25T20:24:01Z")
The poll results we were discussing in the other thread suggest that college education is a significant factor in moving voters away from Trump. That particular poll wasn’t broken down by religion but I suspect that religious conservatism would be another factor working against Trump, and a very different largely non-overlapping demographic from the college-educated one. Yet a third factor is the extent to which he is disliked by blacks and Hispanics. It’s actually amazing that he has as much support as he does, especially when you consider the ambivalence about him within the Republican establishment itself. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/11 "2016-10-25T20:24:50Z")
There are a lot of people who don’t want either candidate, making it a toss-up to them. They may end up going more for Johnson than voting for Hillary, or not voting at all. This is not just a battle between the parties, it is also an internal struggle within the GOP. If you are a loyal party member and see Trump as a bad thing for the party it’s easy to justify voting for anyone but Trump or voting for no one as working toward the party’s best interest. They aren’t going to see Trump as a better alternative to Hillary. Trump may even get higher numbers from Republican voters turning out for the congressional candidates. Once they’re in the voting booth they may just vote the party line anyway. I’d still expect to see a low Republican turnout in some states. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/12 "2016-10-25T20:29:34Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Mormons seem to be part of it. Well, yeah; for one, there’s Mitt Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/13 "2016-10-25T21:45:01Z")
Just take the Romney and Bush families and you’ve already got a huge voting block.😃 Otherwise, the two groups I’ve mostly seen: 1. “True” conservatives who can’t stomach the Donald’s positions on things like trade. 2. Nice, middle-class people who simply can’t stomach him, period. They won’t vote for Hillary, but they won’t vote for Trump, either. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/14 "2016-10-25T22:08:52Z")
Almost everyone at [Redstate.com](http://Redstate.com) has been NeverTrump from the start, which to me was a shocking yet pleasant surprise. They’ve been downright reasonable over there during this whole election cycle. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/15 "2016-10-25T22:32:08Z")
> [@Sterling\_Archer](#): > > It is a lot of conservative Christians who normally vote Republican without even considering an alternative, but are now voting 3rd party. (Hillary is still the devil) > > More than 70% of conservative evangelicals are still supporting Trump, but the 30% is a sizable chunk of the GOP base. Yeah but don’t about 70-80% of white evangelicals (the white part is important, black protestants are heavily democrat and white catholics are split) tend to vote GOP anyway? So Trump is doing about as expected. Also Trump is doing better than Romney with white evangelicals. > **[Pew: Most Evangelicals Will Vote Trump, But Not For Trump](https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2016/july/pew-most-evangelicals-will-vote-trump-against-clinton.html)** > > With half of voters dissatisfied with both presidential candidates, white evangelicals primarily plan to oppose Clinton. > [@](#): > > More than three-quarters of self-identified white evangelicals plan to vote for Donald Trump in the fall (78%). But they aren’t happy about it. > **[More white evangelical voters back Trump than Romney | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/politics/white-evangelical-voters-donald-trump/)** > > Donald Trump is currently winning more of the white evangelical vote than 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney, according to a Pew Research Center poll released Wednesday. > [@](#): > > But if the election were held today, 78% of white evangelical registered voters say they would vote for Trump, including about a third who “strongly” back his campaign. That number is higher than the 73% of white evangelicals who supported Romney at a similar point during the 2012 election. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/16 "2016-10-25T22:38:20Z")
> [@Duke\_of\_Rat](#): > > I won’t be voting for him, and it has nothing to do with education, religion, morals, race relations, immigration, taxes, emails, women, or the price of tea in China. > > I won’t vote for him because he’s an imbecile. But for 80% of regular republicans, these are not good enough reasons to not vote for him. Their desire to see the supreme court stay conservative, to regain the presidency, maintaining party loyalty and stopping Hillary is more important to 80% of republican voters. > **[Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/)** > > Want these election updates emailed to you right when they’re published? Sign up here. A series of national polls released on Tuesday showed Hillary Clinton lea… > **[President Exit Polls](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2012/results/president/exit-polls.html)** > > Live 2012 Presidential, Senate and House Election Results According to 538, Trump is winning men by +5, losing women by -15. Romney women men by +4, lost women by -11. So the % who are men who prefer the GOP is about the same, but slightly more women are anti-trump. However, again, which women? College educated women? We may not know the answer until after the election and the exit polls are released. ---
**Author:** ![Stringbean](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Stringbean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stringbean)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/17 "2016-10-26T01:23:13Z")
College-educated, right-leaning centrist here. I am part of this 10%. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/18 "2016-10-26T01:29:22Z")
The non-deplorables? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/19 "2016-10-26T01:34:25Z")
[http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/gop-women-donald-trump-2016-214318](http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/gop-women-donald-trump-2016-214318) > [@](#): > > But Trump is losing educated white women to Hillary Clinton by a staggering 30 points, 57 to 27 percent, according to Monmouth, and other polls have shown similar numbers. > This is a huge change since 2012, when Romney won that demographic by 6 points > **[Clinton Opens Post-Convention Lead | Monmouth University Polling Institute](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/)** > > Voters less optimistic, enthusiastic than at start of campaign > [@](#): > > The main factor behind the current GOP nominee’s underperformance among white voters is his lack of support among white women with a college degree. Trump holds sizable leads among white men without a college degree (31 points; 56% to 25%), white men with a college degree (11 points; 45% to 34%), and white women without a college degree (17 points; 49% to 32%). These point spreads are similar to how Romney did with these groups in 2012 when he won white men without a college degree by 31 points (64% to 33%), white men with a college degree by 21 points (59% to 38%), and white women without a college degree by 20 points (59% to 39%). Among white women with a college degree, though, Trump is actually trailing Clinton by 30 points (27% to 57%). Romney narrowly won this group by 6 points in 2012 (52% to 46%). > **[Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com](https://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/)** > > Latest on the 2012 National Elections from the CNN.com Politics team. Headlines and video, candidates' positions on the issues, fundraising totals, States to Watch news and analysis, and a unique side-by-side visual comparison of the Republican and... In 2012, 47% of voters had a college education, and 53% were women, 72% were white. Granted, whites have a higher rate of college education, but those numbers imply 18% of voters were college educated white women. Due to racial differences, I’d guess 19-22% is a closer estimate for the % in 2012 who were college educated white women If you assume Romney won college educated white women 53%, but Trump is getting 27%, then about 5% of voters who supported Romney in 2012 were college educated white women who do not support Trump in 2016. So that explains about half of it. ---
**Author:** ![Sterling\_Archer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Sterling\_Archer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterling_Archer)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/20 "2016-10-26T02:14:09Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Yeah but don’t about 70-80% of white evangelicals (the white part is important, black protestants are heavily democrat and white catholics are split) tend to vote GOP anyway? So Trump is doing about as expected. > > Also Trump is doing better than Romney with white evangelicals. > > [http://www.christianitytoday.com/gleanings/2016/july/pew-most-evangelicals-will-vote-trump-against-clinton.html](http://www.christianitytoday.com/gleanings/2016/july/pew-most-evangelicals-will-vote-trump-against-clinton.html) > > [http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/politics/white-evangelical-voters-donald-trump/](http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/politics/white-evangelical-voters-donald-trump/) Wow, speaking as a white evangelical democrat, that is really depressing. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716.md?page=2)