# Who are the 10% of voters who'd normally support a Republican for president, but won't support Trump **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 25, 2016, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716 "2016-10-25T19:19:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/21 "2016-10-26T12:16:19Z")
It’s most likely college educated white voters. I suspect it’s people who are fairly well educated Wall St republicans and independents who would normally jump at the chance to vote against someone like Hillary, whom they probably fear could be tainted by Bernie Sanders. However, when truly educated republicans look at Trump and how he is basically running against Wall St, that would leave them with few options other than a third party candidate. Beyond that, I suspect that Trump has alienated independent women who generally lean republican but are outraged by the candidate’s attempts to shrug off allegations of sexual harassment and sexual assault. They see themselves in the faces of their victims and they’re mad as hell. These are the most damaging voters because rather than the white Wall St republicans who will vote for some third party candidate or sit this one out, they will in fact vote against Donald Trump, and they might even take their frustrations out down the ballot. These are the voters that keep John McCain and Marco Rubio awake at night. ---
**Author:** ![Crybaby\_Boobie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crybaby_boobie/32/545_2.png) [@Crybaby\_Boobie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crybaby_Boobie)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/22 "2016-10-26T12:19:21Z")
> [@Sterling\_Archer](#): > > Wow, speaking as a white evangelical democrat, that is really depressing. Better to be a non-practicing Christian than a Mormon, I guess. (In their eyes, that is). ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/23 "2016-10-26T13:03:53Z")
> [@Duke\_of\_Rat](#): > > I won’t be voting for him, and it has nothing to do with education, religion, morals, race relations, immigration, taxes, emails, women, or the price of tea in China. Listen, if Trump gets elected we’re gonna start growing tea in America instead of buying it from China. The _best_ tea. You won’t believe how good this tea is gonna be. Bigly. > [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Well, yeah; for one, there’s Mitt Romney. And indeed Evan McMullin. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/24 "2016-10-26T14:16:12Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > In another thread I mentioned how a decent gop candidate would probably be getting 50% of the vote, while Trump is getting about 40%. > > McCain got 46% and Romney got 47%. So I think 50% is a fair estimate, possibly high (maybe a good gop candidate would be at 48%). > > But who are the 7-10% of voters (15-20% of Republicans) who would normally support the gop candidate but do not support Trump? > > College educated women? Moderates like Kasich? Evangelicals turned off by his endless affairs? Big business conservatives turned off by his economic populism? Minorities who are voting against the gop by even wider margins than normal due to all the attacks on minorities? > > Had anyone studied that 15-20% who’d normally vote Republican but who are not doing do for Trump? I know a lot of religious folks who can’t stomach Trump and have taken a hands off approach recognizing that this means that the devil they know will win. Its just really hard to be religious and vote for Trump unless you are putting your party and your religion on equal footing. ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/25 "2016-10-26T14:30:26Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > I know a lot of religious folks who can’t stomach Trump and have taken a hands off approach recognizing that this means that the devil they know will win. > > Its just really hard to be religious and vote for Trump unless you are putting your party and your religion on equal footing. Not exactly. I’m not voting “for” Trump. I’m voting AGAINST Clinton. And Trump is simply the most efficient way of doing that. On the other hand, religious people who are voting for Clinton seem to be putting their party above their religion. That’s the only explanation I can find for voting for somebody who is so antithetical to traditional morality. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/26 "2016-10-26T14:40:47Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > I know a lot of religious folks who can’t stomach Trump and have taken a hands off approach recognizing that this means that the devil they know will win. > > Its just really hard to be religious and vote for Trump unless you are putting your party and your religion on equal footing. I believe Trump is doing as well among evangelicals as one would expect any Republican to do. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/27 "2016-10-26T14:51:02Z")
Looking into it, it is mostly college educated people in general who explain trumps ten point deficit. White women with a college education make up half of the deficit. I think most of the other half comes from other college graduates (men, non whites). However college graduates make up about half of voters, so that doesn’t tell us everything. I saw one poll showing a twenty point gop decline for college graduates between 2012 and 2016. Romney won 48% of college graduates in 2012, Trump is only winning 29%. College grads are half of voters, so that is about a 10% loss for Trump (.19\*.47). God bless education. I used to think college was just to find a job. Nope, it is to become a well rounded, informed person in general. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/28 "2016-10-26T17:04:18Z")
My mom fits, I think. And, while she went to a vocational school, she did not go to college, and so doesn’t qualify as “educated” by the metrics usually used. I mean, she did vote Obama last election, and she may have voted Clinton the first time due to him being an Arkansan but, other than that, she’s voted for Republicans her whole life. She works as a paraprofessional at a school, and talks to the science teacher a lot, who is 100% pro-Clinton. She comes to me a lot to debunk the rumors about Clinton–even though her best friend believes every last one of them. (Though I don’t know if she’s voting Trump.) For mom, it really is the Christian thing, and possibly the fact that she’s kinda mellowed out to being pro-choice (although she’d never call it that), saying that she’s against abortion but doesn’t think the government should interfere. And that’s really the only thing the Republicans had that appealed to her. She’s also fairly close to my gay uncles, and learned of how poorly they were treated, and is happy they are married. So same sex marriage had lost its appeal as a divisive issue. In my experience, these sorts of thing are what keep the Evangelicals in line, which is why I’ve said the Republicans cannot lose this aspect of their party, and why I’ve actually said that Democrats should push the “Abortion is wrong, but it’s not my right to force anyone” narrative. (I’ve definitely told Mom that this is both Biden and Kaine’s position.) ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/29 "2016-10-26T17:08:08Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > I know a lot of religious folks who can’t stomach Trump and have taken a hands off approach recognizing that this means that the devil they know will win. > > Its just really hard to be religious and vote for Trump unless you are putting your party and your religion on equal footing. The people I know aren’t so much about the “devil they know.” It’s that they think the Supreme Court thing is more important. They cannot vote for Clinton because she’s pro-choice, and they think she will use her Supreme Court picks to destroy America. They basically then say to pray that Trump will not fuck everything up, and say they just have to have faith. They all seem to hope that Pence winds up doing all the heavy lifting. They also bring up scriptures of evil people being forced to do what God wants, like the Pharaoh in the Exodus story. In other words, God is bigger than Trump. Of course, the counterargument is that this would also be true of Clinton and her Supreme Court picks. ---
**Author:** ![Vihaga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Vihaga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Vihaga)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/30 "2016-10-26T17:22:45Z")
My dad has always voted Republican but is voting for Clinton this year; my mother re-registered Democrat when Obama was running the first time. I think they fall among moderate conservatives who just can’t stomach the racism and misogyny any more. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/31 "2016-10-26T17:25:13Z")
Republicans who don’t like Trump won’t fall into one bucket. From moderates like Kasich and Jeb Bush to ultra-conservatives like Erick Erickson, who constantly blasts the aforementioned “RINOs,” the anti-Trump sentiment spans across all walks of the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![Grumbacher\_Red](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/85e7bf/32.png) [@Grumbacher\_Red](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumbacher_Red)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/32 "2016-10-26T17:29:13Z")
> [@Stringbean](#): > > College-educated, right-leaning centrist here. > > I am part of this 10%. Likewise! You can also count 2 other members of my family as well. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/33 "2016-10-26T17:34:22Z")
> [@Flyer](#): > > Not exactly. I’m not voting “for” Trump. I’m voting AGAINST Clinton. And Trump is simply the most efficient way of doing that. > > On the other hand, religious people who are voting for Clinton seem to be putting their party above their religion. That’s the only explanation I can find for voting for **somebody who is so antithetical to traditional morality**. Bolding mine. :eek::eek: And instead they vote for Trump who is 10 times worse. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/34 "2016-10-26T18:52:18Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > College educated women? Moderates like Kasich? Evangelicals turned off by his endless affairs? Big business conservatives turned off by his economic populism? Minorities who are voting against the gop by even wider margins than normal due to all the attacks on minorities? This list of suggestions is overly ideological. There are quite a lot of people who object to Trump simply because he’s an incompetent idiot (politically), arrogant jerk, and lowlife scum. That’s enough for many people. Me, for example. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/35 "2016-10-26T20:49:45Z")
For what it’s worth, I’m a Catholic Republican who has never voted for a Democrat for President (I did consider voting for Kerry, since Bush II was such a disaster). I wouldn’t vote for Trump for dog catcher. I said that a year ago, when I didn’t think he’d really run. I said it months ago, when I didn’t think he could win the GOP nomination. I said it at the time of the convention, and I still say it. Trump is a horrible human being, and as John Boehner put it, “He’s not a conservative and he’s barely a Republican.” There is no upside to electing Trump. So, I’m certainly part of Wesley Clark’s 10%. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/36 "2016-10-26T20:53:23Z")
We can name a few of them: John McCain, Olympia Snow, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/37 "2016-10-26T21:30:42Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > This list of suggestions is overly ideological. > > There are quite a lot of people who object to Trump simply because he’s **an incompetent idiot (politically), arrogant jerk, and lowlife scum**. That’s enough for many people. Me, for example. Yes, for you that is a reason not to vote for him. However for 80% of republicans, they are fine with having someone who has those traits as president. So what motivates those 20% of republicans who’d normally vote GOP but, like you, are so repulsed by Trump that they aren’t going to vote for the GOP this election? Normally the GOP candidate would get 50% of the vote, Trump will get closer to 40%. So 10% of voters are people who’d normally vote for the GOP candidate, but refuse to vote for Trump. I’m interested in what makes them different, because Trump has a lot of negatives and red flags but only 1 out of 5 Republican voters thinks those red flags are serious enough to warrant not voting for him. What separates those 1 in 5 from the other 4 out of 5 republicans who will vote for him no matter how many red flags he shows? Higher education seems to be the main factor from what I can tell. As I said earlier, almost all the normal republicans who would probably support any other republican for president are choosing not to vote for Trump have a college degree or higher. Being devoutly religious has no impact (polls show Trump doing as good or better among evangelical whites than McCain or Romney). ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/38 "2016-10-26T22:07:14Z")
I agree that educated voters seem to be the biggest departure between Trump and Romney supporters. Education makes sense, too. I’d like to think that educated voters are more likely to see the lies and contradictions that make Trump so unpalatable to me or that they’re enlightened enough to call out racism and sexual assault when they see it… but I think it’s simpler case of self-interest. If you look at income/wage growth since the 70’s, what you see is a period in which everyone had wage growth until the mid-90’s. For the next twenty years, the growth only goes to people with higher education. Trump’s core message that the system is rigged/broken, that trade deals are bad, that manufacturing jobs are important, that immigrants are taking our jobs, that Clinton is personally responsible for all these bad things… those arguments just don’t particularly appeal to people who have prospered in the recent environment. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/39 "2016-10-27T00:06:41Z")
> [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](#): > > the anti-Trump sentiment spans across all walks of the GOP. That’s what I’m anecdotally seeing as a Republican. Although a lot aren’t being specific about votes there’s a lot more angst and indecision this cycle IME. It’s not any one group. The Atlantic’s description of him as “ostentatiously unqualified” , when endorsing Clinton, resonates with many. He pushes hot buttons for religious/social conservatives. He drives foreign policy conservatives, like me, crazy. (Side note on that, Hillary is getting credit for her Secretary of State among those I know in this group. Democrats gave us a candidate that plays to our interests at the same time Trump is being “very, very not smart.” ) Fiscal conservatives shake their heads at his proposals. To top it off he’s actively attacking themes that have been part of the coalition ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716/40 "2016-10-27T01:44:31Z")
Late trigger of the cells related to the Catholic issue Trump is having. It’s an end of August story with an update I don’t see a date on. > [@](#): > > If you compare the difference between Romney’s margin among Catholics in 2012 and Trump’s margin among Catholics this year, the 25-point difference is tied for the biggest shift of any demographic group in the Post-ABC poll. > > (The only group that matches that 25-point shift is white, college-educated women. Romney won them by 6 points; Trump trails by 19.) The update specifically looks at whether it’s Hispanics who lean Catholic. If you looks down to the end the swing there is relatively small. It’s white Catholics where Trump has lost a lot fo votes compared to Romney. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-are-the-10-of-voters-whod-normally-support-a-republican-for-president-but-wont-support-trump/769716.md?page=3)