# Who can be the first to predict the 45th president of the United States? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 5, 2008, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207 "2008-11-05T04:37:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/41 "2008-11-05T17:30:25Z")
I’m going to go out on a wacky limb: Biden retires after 2012. Obama picks Debbie Wasserman Schultz as his new VP. She runs and wins in 2016. Florida, woman, Jewish. I don’t know much about her other than her appearances on TV where she comes off as tough and smart. ---
**Author:** ![Giles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giles/32/60_2.png) [@Giles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giles)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/42 "2008-11-05T17:34:10Z")
Following the passage of the 28th Amendment (the one allowing naturalised citizens to become President), Arnold Schwarzenegger. ---
**Author:** ![chowder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/977dab/32.png) [@chowder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chowder)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/43 "2008-11-05T17:37:06Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > The next president will be a female. Lisa Simpson? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Booker\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/71c47a/32.png) [@Happy\_Booker\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Booker_1)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/44 "2008-11-05T17:45:36Z")
Adam Putnam of FL. Young and bright enough to drop out of the GOP House leadership for this Congress to [“step off the leadership ladder and return my focus to crafting public policy solutions for America’s generational challenges”](http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/putnam-steps-down-as-conference-chairman-2008-11-05.html) In eight years, he’ll have had enough time to build some cred. ---
**Author:** ![WormTheRed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/bbe5ce/32.png) [@WormTheRed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WormTheRed)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/45 "2008-11-05T17:52:36Z")
What about Condi Rice? Republicans could go for her in either 12 or 16? (in my foreign perspective) She’s one of the few in the current administration, that could go on with a career in politics. (and why is this poll in GD?) ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/46 "2008-11-05T18:04:24Z")
I think Obama is a two-termer, so it will be 2016. I think that’s just too far ahead to project. Think about it. Who had ever even _heard_ of Barack Obama in 2000? He exploded onto the Democratic scene with his convention speech in 2004, but in 2000 he was an obscure state legislator who no one (with the possible exception of himself and his wife) would have given the most remote odds of making it all the way to the White House in just 8 more years. Not that anyone outside Illinois even knew who he was. Granted, the kind of immediate, transcendent star power shown by Obama when he first came to national attention 4 years ago is exceptionally rare in politics and his kind of lightspeed career trajectory is not likely to repeat itself anytime soon, but it goes to show that two Presidential terms in US politics is two eternities and you can’t predict anything. So much of politics is event driven that trying to project even a year into the future is folly. Hell, look at just the last two months. At the end of August, how many of us would have predicted that the election would suddenly get knocked sideways by an economic crisis? I think it’s too far in the future to project if Obama serves two terms. I do think that Jindal and Romney are likely to challenge in 2012. I think that other bids might be mounted by Charlie Crist, Tim Pawlenty and (don’t laugh, I think he’d be a strong contener) Jeb Bush. I think that Palin will make an effort, but by the time 4 years has rolled off her brief period of celebrity, I think she’ll have trouble raising money, won’t poll well outside of religious conservatives and will be a marginal candidate at best. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/47 "2008-11-05T18:06:44Z")
Bobby Jindahl ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/48 "2008-11-05T18:17:27Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > I think Obama is a two-termer, so it will be 2016. I think that’s just too far ahead to project. Think about it. Who had ever even _heard_ of Barack Obama in 2000? True, but he ran against someone who ran in 2000, so it’s not that every candidate comes from nowhere. (You do say that later, so I’m not really quarreling with you.) ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/49 "2008-11-05T18:26:54Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > Whoever replaces Biden on the ticket in 2012.😉 Hillary Clinton. Pass Health Care reform then put her in the VP slot in 2012. In 2012, then, she runs on her Senate experience, VP experience, and passing Health Care reform. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/50 "2008-11-05T18:38:11Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > I’m going to go out on a wacky limb: > Biden retires after 2012. Obama picks Debbie Wasserman Schultz as his new VP. She runs and wins in 2016. > > Florida, woman, Jewish. I don’t know much about her other than her appearances on TV where she comes off as tough and smart. I like the theme - second term Obama gives a boost to a possible prospect to continue the process. Of course the first criteriae are that the person have good judgement, share the postive vision of America’s future, have the ability to articulate thaat vision well, and the wisdom to choose good people to execute the plan - but assuming that - a person of Hispanic heritage that could actually get the Hispanic vote out there in bigger numbers come election day would be a demographic advantage. OTOH HRClinton won’t be too old yet. And I do see Michelle following in Hillary’s path - a Senate run and later a Presidential run herself. ---
**Author:** ![Burton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Burton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Burton)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/51 "2008-11-05T18:45:20Z")
I noticed Sarah Palin break out in a big grin when a series of boo’s for Obama started up last night during McCain’s concession speech just after she was mentioned by McCain as the hope or the future of Republican Party. The camera was on her from behind so you could only see maybe a quarter of her face and She caught herself quickly but it was obvious. It creeped me out. ---
**Author:** ![gigi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a587f6/32.png) [@gigi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gigi)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/52 "2008-11-05T18:45:28Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > The next president will be a female. Jo the Plumber. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/53 "2008-11-05T19:09:32Z")
[Rahm Emanuel](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahm_Emanuel) will be Obama’s Chief of Staff for the first term, then be the VP candidate on the winning 2012 ticket, setting himself up for his own winning run in 2016. You heard it here first! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/54 "2008-11-05T19:17:03Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Clinton is 61, she can run. Thaat would be something. A black followed by a woman. Who cares about race or gender? It _would_ be something, but that has more to do with Hillary’s apparent disdain for experts. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/55 "2008-11-05T19:17:36Z")
The Republicans will be **intensely** grooming Palin and Jindal to battle it out in the primaries the next time it looks like they have a chance. If Barack is loved they’ll throw a softball in '12 and wait for '16. If Barry messes up or people cool to him, they’ll strike in '12. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/56 "2008-11-05T19:20:25Z")
> [@Cisco](#): > > The Republicans will be **intensely** grooming Palin and Jindal to battle it out in the primaries the next time it looks like they have a chance. If Barack is loved they’ll throw a softball in '12 and wait for '16. Political parties don’t throw elections. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/57 "2008-11-05T19:25:58Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Political parties don’t throw elections. I didn’t say they would throw the election. I said they would throw a softball candidate in and save their 2 rising stars for when they have a better chance. It’s not throwing an election, it’s strategizing. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/58 "2008-11-05T19:30:04Z")
Distinction without a difference. Political parties don’t pick the candidates. The candidates decide to run and the voters choose them. Jindal and Palin could decide not to run in 2012, but I don’t think they would do so - especially in her case. That kind of decision making helped clear the field for Bill Clinton in 1992. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/59 "2008-11-05T19:40:06Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > Who cares about race or gender? It _would_ be something, but that has more to do with Hillary’s apparent disdain for experts. A lot of people do. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207/60 "2008-11-05T19:43:14Z")
> [@WormTheRed](#): > > What about Condi Rice? Republicans could go for her in either 12 or 16? (in my foreign perspective) > > She’s one of the few in the current administration, that could go on with a career in politics. Won’t happen. Hell, the freepers turned against her when she didn’t come out gangbusters and denounce Obama. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-can-be-the-first-to-predict-the-45th-president-of-the-united-states/471207.md?page=4)