# Who do you think will do well in the debate tonight (8/6/15)? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 6, 2015, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146 "2015-08-06T12:28:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/361 "2015-08-13T11:46:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The only debate I made a prediction on.šŸ™‚ > > I didnā€™t say these things had come to pass, just that itā€™s looking good, as if Iā€™m playing an NFL pool and 12 of my 13 teams are winning in the 4th quarter. Okay, weā€™ll see. Iā€™ll remember that you predicted that Hillary would lose the nomination (unless my memory is faulty). > [@](#): > > Nothing wrong with that, but if youā€™re going to take potshots at my prognostication skills, put up or shut up. No, Iā€™m fine with potshots for now. šŸ™‚ ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/362 "2015-08-13T11:50:10Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Okay, weā€™ll see. Iā€™ll remember that you predicted that Hillary would lose the nomination (unless my memory is faulty). I havenā€™t made a firm prediction on that yet. But I do think she may very well fail to be the nominee. If Biden gets in the race, I will actually make that call. > [@](#): > > No, Iā€™m fine with potshots for now. šŸ™‚ THen please limit your potshots to when I got things wrong three years ago. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/363 "2015-08-13T12:03:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I havenā€™t made a firm prediction on that yet. But I do think she may very well fail to be the nominee. If Biden gets in the race, I will actually make that call. Okay, weā€™ll see. > [@](#): > > THen please limit your potshots to when I got things wrong three years ago. I canā€™t make any promises. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/364 "2015-08-13T12:21:22Z")
Well, Iā€™m on a serious hot streak lately, so if you want to be wrongā€¦ ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/365 "2015-08-13T12:47:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well, Iā€™m on a serious hot streak lately, so if you want to be wrongā€¦ How many of the current crop of candidates have you at some point since 2012 insisted was going to be the one to win it in 2016? Is it fewer than six? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/366 "2015-08-13T12:48:36Z")
None. I picked my favorite candidates that I was supporting, not predicting winners. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/367 "2015-08-13T13:30:46Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > [Post debate winners and losers](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-post-debate-losers-walker-and-winners-fiorina/) from Harry Enten at 538. > > He averaged the change in polling of seven post debate polls (some national, some state) to arrive at a score for each candidate. > > Biggest winner: Fiorina > Biggest loser: Walker I find this completely bizarre since I was so impressed by Walker as noted upthread. But my nose isnā€™t too bent out of shape, as Walker is the candidate about whom I feel the greatest combination of fear and loathing, so Iā€™m happy to see him drop in the polls even if I find it mystifying. I still wouldnā€™t count him out though. > [@adaher](#): > > Young and READY. Do you have young governors ready to be President? DIdnā€™t think so. Youā€™ve got old people and charismatic, unready young people, without much prospect of ever becoming ready. All this means is that we have people who can become president, at which time youā€™ll grumble that they arenā€™t seasoned enough. In presidential politics, you can assemble your perfect GOP candidate and put him/her against an ā€œunreadyā€ or otherwise imperfect Democrat, and the Democrat will win simply because they are not a Republican. Your party is doing well currently in Congress and state housesā€“bully for you. But it is doing so with a coalition of old white voters that is strong only because it built up a good head of steam in the middle of the 20th century. Youā€™re not replacing those voters as they die off, while we are adding to our ranks all the time. So our time will come in downticket races. In the meantime, though, itā€™s already pretty well over for you guys on the presidential level. Youā€™ve only won the popular vote in one presidential election since the 1980s, and that was the narrow reelection of a wartime incumbent. And every cycle the electorate loses old white folks and adds young brown folks. You like to talk about prognostication. Hereā€™s one: You. Will. Not. Win. The. Presidency. In. 2016. Take that to the bank. One more reason Iā€™ll take my partyā€™s situation, even as it stands in Congress and in state races, over yours: the [Big Sort.](http://www.thebigsort.com/home.php) Progressives and conservatives are increasingly moving to likeminded blue and red states/districts respectively. What this means for Democrats is that it is increasingly common for them to get to vote for all winners in every election: mayor, state legislature, governor, U.S. House, Senate, president. They are represented at every level of government by a Democrat, while Republicans are just some far-off Other they can wrinkle their noses at when they see them on TV, or just laugh at them. But Republicans? Despite their (your) being able to enjoy elections like 2010 and 2014, and point to various downballot victories, they constantly have to live under a president they loathe. And boy do they hate that. Well, get used to it. šŸ˜› ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/368 "2015-08-13T13:42:18Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > All this means is that we have people who can become president, at which time youā€™ll grumble that they arenā€™t seasoned enough. In presidential politics, you can assemble your perfect GOP candidate and put him/her against an ā€œunreadyā€ or otherwise imperfect Democrat, and the Democrat will win simply because they are not a Republican. Thatā€™s not really how it works. You are underestimating the sheer amount of charisma it takes. JFK and Obama pulled it off. All the other winners were governors or VPs. Itā€™s no coincidence that JFK and Obama were very unusual candidates. I donā€™t think any of the young Democrats mentioned here have those political chops. > [@](#): > > Your party is doing well currently in Congress and state housesā€“bully for you. But it is doing so with a coalition of old white voters that is strong only because it built up a good head of steam in the middle of the 20th century. Youā€™re not replacing those voters as they die off, while we are adding to our ranks all the time. So our time will come in downticket races. Sure, IF your voters get motivated, and IF they donā€™t get more conservative as they age. Chew on this: 18-24 voters 2008-66-32 Democrats 2012-60-39 Democrats 2014(18-29)-54-43 Democrats Looks like Republicans are slowly leeching those millenials away from the Democrats. Thatā€™s the price of governing badly. > [@](#): > > You like to talk about prognostication. Hereā€™s one: You. Will. Not. Win. The. Presidency. In. 2016. Take that to the bank. Noted. > [@](#): > > But Republicans? Despite their (your) being able to enjoy elections like 2010 and 2014, and point to various downballot victories, they constantly have to live under a president they loathe. And boy do they hate that. Well, get used to it. šŸ˜› We always have to live with divided government. Thatā€™s how our system is structured. If I had to choose, Iā€™d rather be where we are now than in the Democratsā€™ situation, with a President facing opposition from Congress and a large majority of state governments. After all, we donā€™t need to win too many more to make a President irrelevant. Plus with 7 more states we can change the Constitution and enhance the power of Congress at the expense of the President(or more accurately, restore Congressā€™ role, since Presidents have expanded their power with each successive administration). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/369 "2015-08-13T14:07:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Thatā€™s not really how it works. You are underestimating the sheer amount of charisma it takes. JFK and Obama pulled it off. All the other winners were governors or VPs. Itā€™s no coincidence that JFK and Obama were very unusual candidates. I donā€™t think any of the young Democrats mentioned here have those political chops. None of the Republicans do either. > [@](#): > > Sure, IF your voters get motivated, and IF they donā€™t get more conservative as they age. Chew on this: > > 18-24 voters > > 2008-66-32 Democrats > 2012-60-39 Democrats > 2014(18-29)-54-43 Democrats > > Looks like Republicans are slowly leeching those millenials away from the Democrats. Thatā€™s the price of governing badly. For the millionth time, midterms arenā€™t comparable to presidential elections. From '04 to '08 Democrats went way up with young voters. In '12 they went down, but still higher than '04. Weā€™ll see in '16 which way the trend is going. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/370 "2015-08-13T14:20:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Plus with 7 more states we can change the Constitution and enhance the power of Congress at the expense of the President(or more accurately, restore Congressā€™ role, since Presidents have expanded their power with each successive administration). Only seven more states, you say! Which states are your best prospects, then? (Problem being, of course, that when Democrats are at low ebb, there is no low-hanging fruit for your side, to say the least.) You are whistling past the graveyard when it coms to Millennials. Hereā€™s a good article for you, from the highly respected Pew research organization: [The GOPā€™s Millennial problem runs deep](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/09/25/the-gops-millennial-problem-runs-deep/) Part of the problem for you guys is simply that Millennials arenā€™t nearly as white as the older generations that make up the GOP base. Nor are they [remotely as religious.](http://college.usatoday.com/2015/05/29/survey-finds-millennials-are-less-religious-than-previous-generations/) Those two factors alone make the GOP a tough sell for them. And even among white Millennials, they are a lot more liberal than older whites, and [research suggests](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/09/the-politics-of-american-generations-how-age-affects-attitudes-and-voting-behavior/) that among whites, political views gel in early adulthood and usually do not change when they get older. Jon Chait [sums it up nicely:](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/new-report-shows-young-liberals-own-the-future.html?mid=facebook_nymag) > [@](#): > > Conservatives have a double problems with millennial voters. The first is that theyā€™re much less white than older voters, which means that, as time goes on, Republicans would need to get much higher voting margins among millennial whites merely to stay even. But the second problem is that millennial whites have more liberal views than older whites.[ā€¦] > Republicans may not have yet hit their ceiling of white support. But their most loyal white voters are aging out of the electorate (thatā€™s a demographic euphemism for ā€œdyingā€) while the white voters aging into the electorate are the least loyal to the party. And the change is happening fast ā€“ the proportion of millennials is expected, per Nate Cohn, to rise from about 18 percent of the voters in 2012 to 24 percent of the voters in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/371 "2015-08-13T15:53:10Z")
To be fair to the demographers, ā€˜aging out of the electorateā€™ may include being overtaken by Alzheimerā€™s or other forms of senior dementia. Iā€™m sure my wifeā€™s 91 year old grandmother didnā€™t vote last November for the first time in her adult life, despite being physically in good health. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/372 "2015-08-13T17:19:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Read the 2014 thread. Youā€™re simply wrong. > > [Election predictions here - Politics & Elections - Straight Dope Message Board](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=736556) > > Predictions: Results: > +15 House seats +13 House seats > +8 Senate seats +9 Senate seats > 51-47 GOP pop vote 51-45.5 GOP pop vote So your defense of the claim that you only predict well when your prediction coincides with what you want is to point to an election where your prediction coincided with what you wanted to happen? How about you point to a case where you predicted against your desires and got it right? > [@](#): > > Called one of two upsets, 4 of 5 toss ups. So 5 out of 7, where you picked 6 Republicans to win. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2015, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/373 "2015-08-13T17:47:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well, Iā€™m on a serious hot streak lately, so if you want to be wrongā€¦ The Republican party is on a hot streak. Youā€™re just along for the ride. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2015, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/374 "2015-08-14T04:11:34Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > For the millionth time, midterms arenā€™t comparable to presidential elections. From '04 to '08 Democrats went way up with young voters. In '12 they went down, but still higher than '04. Weā€™ll see in '16 which way the trend is going. Say it out loud why midterms are different. Why do young people, minorities, virtually everyone, vote more Republican in midterms the last two elections? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2015, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/375 "2015-08-14T04:13:56Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Only seven more states, you say! Which states are your best prospects, then? (Problem being, of course, that when Democrats are at low ebb, there is no low-hanging fruit for your side, to say the least.) We got Massachusetts, Illinois, and Maryland. If your voters wonā€™t come out, thereā€™s no state we canā€™t win. > [@](#): > > You are whistling past the graveyard when it coms to Millennials. Hereā€™s a good article for you, from the highly respected Pew research organization: > > [The GOPā€™s Millennial problem runs deep](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/09/25/the-gops-millennial-problem-runs-deep/) > > Part of the problem for you guys is simply that Millennials arenā€™t nearly as white as the older generations that make up the GOP base. Nor are they [remotely as religious.](http://college.usatoday.com/2015/05/29/survey-finds-millennials-are-less-religious-than-previous-generations/) Those two factors alone make the GOP a tough sell for them. > > And even among white Millennials, they are a lot more liberal than older whites, and [research suggests](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/09/the-politics-of-american-generations-how-age-affects-attitudes-and-voting-behavior/) that among whites, political views gel in early adulthood and usually do not change when they get older. > > Jon Chait [sums it up nicely:](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/new-report-shows-young-liberals-own-the-future.html?mid=facebook_nymag) Yet we are still making slow gains. Our millenials are still voting. Yours, disillusioned because their hopes were dashed with Obama, stayed home in huge numbers in 2010, 2012, and 2014. We donā€™t have to appeal to groups that donā€™t vote. Obama used the millenials then turned out to be just another politician, which kept them on the sidelines for the next three national elections. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2015, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/376 "2015-08-14T05:37:29Z")
Yep, nothing but blue skies and sunshine ahead for the Republican Party! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2015, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/377 "2015-08-14T05:51:13Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > The Republican party is on a hot streak. Youā€™re just along for the ride. Bernie Sanders is a Republican? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2015, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/378 "2015-08-14T05:58:35Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Yep, nothing but blue skies and sunshine ahead for the Republican Party! Sure looks good so far. Half the name recognition yet only a few points behind Clinton nationally, and with some candidates leading in states Obama won. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2015, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/379 "2015-08-14T07:42:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > However, I did get this badly wrong: > > But Iā€™ll cut myself some slack because I donā€™t think anyone in that thread predicted anything close to whatā€™s happening now. It was all a blur until I read this: good forecasters revisit their track record and think about how they could have done better. Until then the arguments werenā€™t worth bothering with. So. Letā€™s take a look. Reviewing [adaherā€™s prediction thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=736556), I see a problem. A true forecast typically contains a central outcome, a feel for probability _and an outline of your reasoning_. Roughly speaking (very) thatā€™s how science works as well: you typically need to present a statistically significant relationship _and_ a coherent story. You need to enter into the game with the view that your perspective could be falsified. We learned something about the 2012 campaign. _Ad hoc_ nit-picking directed at a systematic and scientific forecast framework is asinine. (Hey: blow dried TV pundits do it too.) But if you want to push a POV, you have to do more. This isnā€™t ideology talking: **Bricker** for example always explains his reasoning or at least part of it. That makes it possible to do a proper post-event assessment. He got the 2012 Obama election wrong for example, but his error was pretty subtle: he relied on a metric (unemployment) which though correlated with the right sort of variables wasnā€™t especially robust. The moral was to rely heavier on technical experts like Fair and Silver as opposed to superficially inclined journalists. Bricker was so close! ā€œI think Perry will be the first to drop outā€, doesnā€™t impress me. ā€œI think Perry will be the first to drop out and hereā€™s why,ā€ gives you an entrance ticket. Even better is to say, ā€œOh, and hereā€™s how I might be wrong.ā€ If the jabber can be falsified as well, youā€™ve made a compound forecast, which is a better test of your world view. Another poster who has done that successfully is **Exapno Mapcase**. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2015, 8:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146/380 "2015-08-14T08:45:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > We got Massachusetts, Illinois, and Maryland. Massachusetts: House 125 D 35 R Senate 34 D 6 R Illinois: House 71 D 47 R Senate 39 D 20 R Maryland: House of Delegates 91 D 50 R Senate 33 D 14 R [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146.md?page=18) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-do-you-think-will-do-well-in-the-debate-tonight-8-6-15/727146.md?page=20)