# Who exactly wins the 2004 Democratic nomination and the 2004 Pres. election if 9/11 doesn't occur?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-exactly-wins-the-2004-democratic-nomination-and-the-2004-pres-election-if-9-11-doesnt-occur/733479>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [October 4, 2015, 6:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-exactly-wins-the-2004-democratic-nomination-and-the-2004-pres-election-if-9-11-doesnt-occur/733479 "2015-10-04T06:45:23Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 5\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Futurist110](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a88e4f/32.png) [@Futurist110](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Futurist110)\
**Post date:** [October 4, 2015, 6:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-exactly-wins-the-2004-democratic-nomination-and-the-2004-pres-election-if-9-11-doesnt-occur/733479/1 "2015-10-04T06:45:23Z")

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If 9/11 is somehow prevented (and there are no other successfully attacks by al-Qaeda on U.S. soil before the 2004 Presidential election), then who exactly would have won the 2004 Democratic nomination and the 2004 U.S. Presidential election in this scenario? Al Gore? Hillary Clinton? Someone else?

Any thoughts on this?

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**Author:** ![davida03801](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5e925/32.png) [@davida03801](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davida03801)\
**Post date:** [October 4, 2015, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-exactly-wins-the-2004-democratic-nomination-and-the-2004-pres-election-if-9-11-doesnt-occur/733479/2 "2015-10-04T11:31:09Z")

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No one knows, exactly.

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**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\
**Post date:** [October 4, 2015, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-exactly-wins-the-2004-democratic-nomination-and-the-2004-pres-election-if-9-11-doesnt-occur/733479/3 "2015-10-04T15:00:04Z")

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Bush would still have been the incumbent running for re-election. Any incumbent has an advantage. As a result, the big candidates in the opposing party usually avoid running against them and they’re challenged by the second tier.

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**Author:** ![Futurist110](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a88e4f/32.png) [@Futurist110](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Futurist110)\
**Post date:** [October 4, 2015, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-exactly-wins-the-2004-democratic-nomination-and-the-2004-pres-election-if-9-11-doesnt-occur/733479/4 "2015-10-04T22:35:23Z")

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> [@davida03801](#):
>
> No one knows, exactly.

So maybe I shouldn’t have used the word 'exactly" here.

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**Author:** ![Futurist110](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a88e4f/32.png) [@Futurist110](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Futurist110)\
**Post date:** [October 4, 2015, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-exactly-wins-the-2004-democratic-nomination-and-the-2004-pres-election-if-9-11-doesnt-occur/733479/5 "2015-10-04T22:36:26Z")

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> [@Little\_Nemo](#):
>
> Bush would still have been the incumbent running for re-election. Any incumbent has an advantage. As a result, the big candidates in the opposing party usually avoid running against them and they’re challenged by the second tier.

Couldn’t Bush have been more hurt by the events of 2000 in 2004 if 9/11 would not have occurred, though?