# Who gets in the first Republican debate? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 29, 2015, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817 "2015-06-29T20:55:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2015, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/1 "2015-06-29T20:55:19Z")
The first debate for the Republican primary candidates for President takes place August 6. FOX has said that only the top ten candidates (based on the most recent, recognized, and national polls) will be invited. By my count, there will be 16 serious (for a certain definition of serious) candidates announced by then. Which ten do you believe will participate? (List follows. It may take me some time to put it together.) ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2015, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/2 "2015-06-29T20:59:45Z")
There’s no way to limit you to ten votes. Please count carefully. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2015, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/3 "2015-06-29T21:39:42Z")
After about the first 5-6 or so I am firmly in the “who the hell can tell” camp. Let’s take a quick look at Real Clear Politics [latest](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html) on the recent polls. The most recent national poll is a FoxNews poll. Their margin of sampling error is +/- 3%. Nobody is lower than 1% and only six are more than 3 points above that. The difference between the bottom half of what will be the eventual field is in the range of sampling noise. The bottom half are effectively drawing straws for a podium on the stage. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2015, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/4 "2015-06-29T22:00:51Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > The bottom half are effectively drawing straws for a podium on the stage. That’s very true. Take your best guess anyway. This isn’t going on your permanent record. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2015, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/5 "2015-06-29T23:43:15Z")
Alright, here’s my guess **IN** - Bush - Christie - Cruz - Graham - Jindal - Kasich - Paul - Perry - Rubio - Walker **OUT** - Carson - Fiorina - Huckabee - Pataki - Santorum - Trump I tended to favor current office holders over past office holders. Picking Kasich over Huckabee is probably a doomed preference for competence over show biz, though. (I don’t like Kasich and didn’t/wouldn’t vote for him, but he’s the only name on that list that wouldn’t be a total embarrassment.) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/6 "2015-06-30T00:18:02Z")
My guess is that unless they have withdrawn, Fox is going to ignore the poll results and include Carson and Fiorina. Refusing to let the only black and only female candidate participate in the debate will further damage the Republican standing with blacks and women. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/7 "2015-06-30T04:22:31Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > My guess is that unless they have withdrawn, Fox is going to ignore the poll results and include Carson and Fiorina. Refusing to let the only black and only female candidate participate in the debate will further damage the Republican standing with blacks and women. But including two delusional nutcases just because one’s black and the other’s a woman might be a little insulting to blacks and women. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/8 "2015-06-30T05:14:53Z")
> [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](#): > > But including two delusional nutcases just because one’s black and the other’s a woman might be a little insulting to blacks and women. The Republican party has to work with what it’s got. Worst case scenario, they give Trump one of the ten spots and he makes everyone else look comparatively sane. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/9 "2015-06-30T05:50:33Z")
They might put Fiorina through, especially if they assume that Hilary is a lock, but they don’t need Carson since they have Jindal (yeah, I know, and you know …) ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/10 "2015-06-30T06:21:45Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > My guess is that unless they have withdrawn, Fox is going to ignore the poll results and include Carson and Fiorina. Refusing to let the only black and only female candidate participate in the debate will further damage the Republican standing with blacks and women. You’d think by just blindly picking the top ten, they’d be protecting themselves from accusations of bias. Of course, if they use their own polling, there will no doubt be lots of conspiracy theories about how the polls were rigged to help Murdoch approved candidates get in, while particularly embarrassing candidates were similarly made to fall below the top ten (God help the internet if Paul doesn’t make the cut, we’ll have libertarian conspiracy theorists hijacking every comment thread for the next twenty years). Also, isn’t generally expected that Trump will drop out before he needs to make financial disclosures. I sort of assumed that’s prior to the debates, but I don’t actually know. ---
**Author:** ![The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_wind_of_my_soul)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/11 "2015-06-30T17:25:01Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > My guess is that unless they have withdrawn, Fox is going to ignore the poll results and include Carson and Fiorina. Refusing to let the only black and only female candidate participate in the debate will further damage the Republican standing with blacks and women. This does not sound like the mindset of any Republican I know. The Republicans I know (and I know a lot) tend to be of the mindset that giving a minority group special treatment is more racist than treating everyone equally and holding everyone to the same set of standards. I would be shocked if Fox did what you’re suggesting. (Also, according to current polling, Carson won’t have any problem getting in on his own merits.) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/12 "2015-06-30T17:26:48Z")
IN: Bush. The rest don’t much matter. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/13 "2015-06-30T17:47:25Z")
> [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](#): > > But including two delusional nutcases just because one’s black and the other’s a woman might be a little insulting to blacks and women. While all things being equal Fox may want to help the Republican party, what they want even more it ratings. Having a bunch of goofballs debate each other makes for great reality television. That’s the reason I included Trump on my list. I think people might vote for him just for the spectacle of the thing. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2015, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/14 "2015-06-30T18:58:51Z")
Here’s how they should do it: Jeb Bush as the ringleader, and three rings of five of the other candidates. Elephants are optional. Clowns are a given. ---
**Author:** ![DrumBum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e79b87/32.png) [@DrumBum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrumBum)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/15 "2015-07-07T17:44:39Z")
**OUT** Carson Fiorina Jindal Kasich Pataki Trump ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/16 "2015-07-07T19:34:34Z")
Trump is polling 2nd behind Bush in the latest CNN poll. Will be hard to keep him off the debate platform, if that continues. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/17 "2015-07-07T20:03:52Z")
Here are the current [RCP averages](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html): 1 Bush 16.3 2 Walker 10.5 3 Carson 9.8 4 Rubio 9.3 5 Huckabee 7.8 6 Paul 7.3 7 Trump 6.5 8 Cruz 4.0 9 Perry 3.8 10 Christie 3.3 11 Santorum 2.3 12 Fiorina 2.0 13 Kasich 1.5 14 Jindal 1.3 15 Graham 1.3 [The Washington Post](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/06/02/whos-in-and-whos-out-in-the-first-republican-debate/) has slightly different numbers but an identical ranking. The only two candidates who seem to have any upward momentum at the moment are Bush and Trump and the debate is less than a month away. There’s not enough time for the current list to change much. Kasich is due to announce on 7/21, but I don’t think the small bump he’ll get from announcing will be enough. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2015, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/18 "2015-07-07T21:00:39Z")
Carson is polling really well. I don’t see why he would be left out. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2015, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/19 "2015-07-08T00:07:16Z")
[Interesting article](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-07-07/the-mad-scramble-to-get-off-the-republican-debate-bubble) on the ramifications of this process. > [@](#): > > If you look at the early poll numbers—and remember, we’re still not sure exactly which polls Fox will be using—it appears there are seven candidates who are comfortably in, off the bubble, your North Carolinas and your UCLAs: Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, and Mike Huckabee. They have nothing to worry about, and, unlike the N.C.A.A. tournament, they needn’t worry about seeding. > > Then you have nine candidates in competition for the three remaining slots. In whatever order you want them: Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki. These are your bubble teams. The next month may very well turn out to be their whole campaign. If they make the top 10, they can campaign like normal candidates again, with the stage and the platform they expected when they announced in the first place. If they don’t, though … the bubble bursts. While those left out certainly still have a path forward, they will have failed the first test. > > Which may mean that candidates who in the past would be wearing holes in their shoes in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina will not have as much time for that this cycle. They need to get off the bubble. This dynamic may explain some unusual moves by some of the bubble candidates, the sort of publicity-garnering events you wouldn’t ordinarily find at this stage. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2015, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/20 "2015-07-08T21:30:56Z")
I don’t get the people who don’t think Carson will be there, unless Fox changes the rules ad hoc to let a Senator or governor in in his place. But Carson has actually been first in a couple of polls, so leaving him out would be pretty shady. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817.md?page=2)