# Who gets in the first Republican debate? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 29, 2015, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817 "2015-06-29T20:55:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2015, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/21 "2015-07-08T21:43:22Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Having a bunch of goofballs debate each other makes for great reality television. I’m kinda looking forward to it. So Trump and Carson should be locks? Excellent. Who are the next most entertaining figures to fill in the bottom of the list? Cruz, right? Christie might be interesting, for what he provokes in others as much as what he brings himself. Jindal probably won’t make it, alas. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2015, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/22 "2015-07-08T21:50:56Z")
I’m going to sort the results so far. ## Bush 52 Cruz 51 Paul 48 Rubio 46 Walker 42 Huckabee 40 Christie 35 Perry 28 Trump 27 Santorum 21 Graham 20 Carson 18 Jindal 18 Kasich 13 Fiorina 12 Pataki 8 The most different from the poll referenced above is Santorum is in here, and Carson is in from the polls. I didn’t vote for Carson because I honestly expected his polling to be dropping by now. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2015, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/23 "2015-07-08T22:01:38Z")
Non-politicians or politicians with a reputation for not being bullshitters have an advantage in this cycle. We probably won’t be lucky enough to see one win a nomination, but they’ll be unusually strong in this cycle. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2015, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/24 "2015-07-08T22:03:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I don’t get the people who don’t think Carson will be there, unless Fox changes the rules ad hoc to let a Senator or governor in in his place. Yeah, it’s like people are ignoring the available data and just going with what they think should happen. That’s annoying isn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2015, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/25 "2015-07-08T22:26:47Z")
Extrapolation isn’t ignoring data. If people think that Carson’s popularity will fall and thus he’ll be left out of the debates, that’s one thing. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2015, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/26 "2015-07-08T22:55:25Z")
Walker hasn’t formally announced yet, has he? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2015, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/27 "2015-07-08T23:01:16Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Walker hasn’t formally announced yet, has he? I think he’s supposed to announce on Monday. Gilmore in August. Not sure about Kasich. ETA: July 21 for Kasich. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2015, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/28 "2015-07-09T00:58:27Z")
Who’s Gilmour? (It’s hard to keep track of them all.) ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2015, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/29 "2015-07-09T21:06:55Z")
Noooo! > [@](#): > > [The large field of republican presidential hopefuls jockeying to make the cut for the first 2016 debate will have to file a public disclosure of their personal finances on time to participate. > > That means every candidate who declared before july 6 — a group of 14 contenders including former florida governor jeb bush and real estate magnate donald trump — will have to reveal information about their assets and debts to get into the aug. 6 event in cleveland.]([http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/07/09/gop-candidates-must-turn-in-financial-disclosure-on-time-to-get-into-first-debate/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/07/09/gop-candidates-must-turn-in-financial-disclosure-on-time-to-get-into-first-debate/)) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2015, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/30 "2015-07-09T21:20:40Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **adaher** : > > Non-politicians or politicians with a reputation for not being bullshitters have an advantage in this cycle. A non-politician running for President is an oxymoron, and a politician without a reputation for bullshitting is logically possible, but incredibly rare in the real world. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2015, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/31 "2015-07-09T21:36:52Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Who’s Gilmour? > > (It’s hard to keep track of them all.) [Jim Gilmore, former governor of Virginia.](http://m.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/article_30b836ff-1768-5bcb-9681-f942acfb711f.html?mode=jqm) Low entertainment value, I’m afraid. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2015, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/32 "2015-07-10T03:10:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > A non-politician running for President is an oxymoron, and a politician without a reputation for bullshitting is logically possible, but incredibly rare in the real world. When the word “politician” is used to describe a lifelong profession, then there are many who are not. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2015, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/33 "2015-07-10T08:57:30Z")
Definitely In: Bush, Walker, Rubio, Carson, Trump, Huckabee, Paul, Cruz. My picks from the ‘on the bubble’ crowd: Perry, Fiorina. I’m convinced that they’ll rig things somehow to keep their designated Girl Fight With Hillary candidate in there. For my last pick, I was torn between Perry and Christie, and I basically flipped a mental coin at that point. The ‘on the bubble’ guy who lost my mental coin flip, but wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the stage: Christie. I think these guys would have to make a splash just to get on the bubble, but it’s possible: Santorum, Kasich. Not gonna make the Top Ten, period: Jindal, Graham, Pataki, Gilmore. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2015, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/34 "2015-07-10T20:53:21Z")
I understand GOP-TV, which is running the event, tried to exclude Trump yesterday by making it a requirement that all candidates on the stage must have filed an election financial report and not merely an extension. Trump says he plans on thwarting that effort by making the filing. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2015, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/35 "2015-07-10T21:49:40Z")
I think Trump has to have a spot in the top 10 or he throws a tantrum and goes independent. He’s already threatening to do it and he doesn’t need the GOP money, any way. He doesn’t need GOP backing to make headlines, either. The Party operatives don’t want a conservative independent in the race, so they’ll probably give him his slot, no matter what. I would bet they dump Kasich from my list above and put Trump in his place. Kasich is not scintillating television. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2015, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/36 "2015-07-11T05:25:41Z")
Trump has to have a spot because he’s leading in at least one poll. Full stop. I don’t care how nutty someone is, we live in a democracy and candidates with significant support should be in debates. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2015, 7:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/37 "2015-07-11T07:29:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Trump has to have a spot because he’s leading in at least one poll. Full stop. IIRC, the standard they’re using is the top ten in an average of five national polls taken two weeks before the debate. So I don’t think leading in one poll a month before is enough, and given the jumpiness of polling like this, it shouldn’t be. That said, unless Trump seems likely to qualify by either standard, unless his support craters in the next two weeks. > [@](#): > > I don’t care how nutty someone is, we live in a democracy and candidates with significant support should be in debates. We don’t live in the Republican Party. I don’t think they’re under any more intrinsic obligation to let the public chose their candidates than IBM should have to require a public vote on its CEO. If the GOP wanted to decide its candidates by having party leaders meet in the famous smoke filled room, I don’t think there’s any moral issue with that. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2015, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/38 "2015-07-11T07:47:54Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > IIRC, the standard they’re using is the top ten in an average of five national polls taken two weeks before the debate. Which means it’s basically just going to be a lottery for the bottom 6-8 spaces. The actual margin between #10 and #11 (or possibly even #4 and #11) is going to be too small for five polls to discern. They still haven’t said which polls they’re going to use either. Just the five most recent “recognized by FOX News.” I expect that they’ll just pick the candidates they want and choose the polls to justify that decision. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2015, 8:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/39 "2015-07-11T08:20:47Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > Which means it’s basically just going to be a lottery for the bottom 6-8 spaces. The actual margin between #10 and #11 (or possibly even #4 and #11) is going to be too small for five polls to discern. > > They still haven’t said which polls they’re going to use either. Just the five most recent “recognized by FOX News.” I expect that they’ll just pick the candidates they want and choose the polls to justify that decision. Well, even being able to pick and choose polls, they’re still probably going to be locked in for the top six or so spots (specifically, they’ll probably be stuck with Trump). But I agree the idea behind not deciding which polls in advance effectively lets them choose the bottom three or four. I could imagine the relatively hawkish Fox news trying to cherry pick things to get Graham in, for example. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2015, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/40 "2015-07-11T11:10:01Z")
Man, I don’t understand the collective Dope wisdom on Ben Carson. Can I make bets with some of the people who didn’t include Carson on their lists? Because barring major medical emergency in the next few weeks, he’s gonna be on that stage, and I’d love to pick up some free money from the apparently numerous Dopers who think he won’t be. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817.md?page=3)