# Who gets in the first Republican debate? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 29, 2015, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817 "2015-06-29T20:55:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2015, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/101 "2015-07-30T13:25:42Z")
Seems like only last year \*\*adaher \*\*was telling us how Rand Paul was going to lock up the youth vote for the Republicans. Then Christie and Jindal became his heroes. Now he’s hoping for Kasich. Anybody but the Floridians he’s actually familiar with. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2015, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/102 "2015-07-30T19:04:04Z")
I still like Rand Paul. A lot. I just don’t think he’s ready to be President. That’s been my position on him from the beginning. What I said before about him and the youth vote is that if Paul did win the nomination, he’s shuffle the coalitions a little. He’d do better among young and minority voters than most Republicans, while losing some elderly voters and keeping a lot of other Republican voters at home. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2015, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/103 "2015-08-01T17:07:00Z")
[Another new polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html) - Rasmussen (7/26-27). The RCP average is based on six polls not the five that is the Fox News standard for the debate main stage. Kasich pulled into 9th after getting another 5%. Christie slipped to the last slot despite his average tweaking up to 3.0%. His two latest only averaged 2.5% so that was more a matter of dropping his low outlier than making any kind of move in the latest two polls Perry is likely out at 2.2%. Jindal and Santorum are tied at 1.5% needing some miracle. The two oldest in the average are the ABC/ Wash Post poll and the FoxNews poll. It looks like Fox’s schedule should bring updated numbers (and since they are hosting I assume they are going to bring one more). That would kick ABC out of the average. That’s more bad news for Perry since he loses his highest number at 4% pulling him down more. Fox is one of this two 1% scores so there’s at least some hope for him. Jindal’s got more potential upswing since the average of the oldest two to be replaced is 1% to Santorums 1.5% across those two. Kasich’s weakest two are the oldest from before he announced so he’s got more potential upside. Even if he pitched a big far zero in the last poll he’d average a hard to beat out 3.4% Overall I’m calling Kasich a lock and Christie being probable for the last slot. In other news, Bush pitched his second straight 10 poll That pulls his average down in to third behind Walker. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/104 "2015-08-03T23:58:48Z")
Fox News just released a poll today. [Current RCP averages](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html). I don’t think anyone major is due to release another poll before the cutoff 21 hours from now. Also the RCP average includes six polls, but the top ten doesn’t change if you remove the Rasmussen poll (robocalls). So here’s who’s in: Trump Bush Walker Cruz Carson Huckabee Rubio Paul Kasich Christie Kiddie table: Perry Santorum Jindal Fiorina Graham Pataki Gilmore? \<- not sure if he qulifies for the kiddie table ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/105 "2015-08-04T01:45:35Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Fox News just released a poll today. Along with Monmouth. Perry should have wrestled the bear. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/106 "2015-08-04T22:26:43Z")
98 voters - \* = invited to first debate - we got eight out of ten ## Bush 93 \* Cruz 89 \* Paul 82 \* Rubio 82 \* Walker 77 \* Huckabee 68 \* Trump 68 \* Christie 66 \* Perry 52 Santorum 41 Carson 39 \* Graham 31 Jindal 25 Fiorina 20 Kasich 20 \* Pataki 8 ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/107 "2015-08-04T22:28:11Z")
I like how Fox released it just in time for the network news on the East Coast. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/108 "2015-08-04T22:34:29Z")
Good news for Kasich. This is where he needs to start building momentum. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2015, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/109 "2015-08-04T23:46:16Z")
Well, I was wrong. Bummer. I just wish (purely for the interests of the Democratic Party) that they’d left Kasich out. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/110 "2015-08-05T01:03:51Z")
I was hoping Santorum got in, just for yuks. But there again, Walker got in so the yuks will be there. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 9:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/111 "2015-08-05T09:37:52Z")
It should be noted that the majority of Dopers were wrong about Carson despite overwhelming data that Carson would be in. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 10:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/112 "2015-08-05T10:40:51Z")
For the amount of times they’re going to invoke religion into their remarks, why don’t they just have a mass? Pass the collection plate only to the Koch family. Speaking of which, can we give them questions to answer from online? Explain the first amendment would be the first one (skipping Carson, we heard his answer.) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/113 "2015-08-05T10:44:03Z")
I’m very interesting in hearing Bernie Sanders mess up that answer myself. Half his campaign is based on restricting political speech. I’ll be happy to bump Donald Trump and put Sanders up there.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/114 "2015-08-05T11:03:08Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > Speaking of which, can we give them questions to answer from online? Explain the first amendment would be the first one (skipping Carson, we heard his answer.) Foxnews is partnering with Facebook for the net side of the festivities. ISTR that there was an option to submit questions in advance but I’ll leave the search to you. They are only expecting 7 questions per candidate (1 minute initial response and 30 sec followup from each candidate per question.) Good luck getting much in to that schedule. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/115 "2015-08-05T11:10:34Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Locrian** : > > For the amount of times they’re going to invoke religion into their remarks, why don’t they just have a mass? Because a Mass is what the evil atheist satanic Catholics do, and they’re all good Christians. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/116 "2015-08-05T12:13:38Z")
As far as religion goes, am I to assume that Democrats have given up the subterfuge and will now not be invoking their faith anymore? ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/117 "2015-08-05T12:18:29Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Because a Mass is what the evil atheist satanic Catholics do, and they’re all good Christians. Indeed. There’s been a shaky alliance between the Religious Right & the some Roman Catholics. Mostly on abortion. But the roots of the RR are in the denominations that regard the Church of Rome as the Whore of Babylon. The new Pope is not helping matters, coming out against poverty & global warming. Of course, he’s a Jesuit… ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/118 "2015-08-05T15:26:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > As far as religion goes, am I to assume that Democrats have given up the subterfuge and will now not be invoking their faith anymore? Why do you think Democrats cannot honestly invoke their faith? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/119 "2015-08-05T16:05:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > As far as religion goes, am I to assume that Democrats have given up the subterfuge and will now not be invoking their faith anymore? You see the speck in your brother’s eye but cannot see the plank in your own. How about all those Republicans who are strongly anti-gay but are later to be revealed to be closeted gays themselves? Or the more-Catholic-than-the-Pope Gingrich who had an affair because he loves America so much? Or Republicans whose strong Christian faith compels them to cut programs for the poor? ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2015, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817/120 "2015-08-05T20:18:11Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > Foxnews is partnering with Facebook for the net side of the festivities. ISTR that there was an option to submit questions in advance but I’ll leave the search to you. > > They are only expecting 7 questions per candidate (1 minute initial response and 30 sec followup from each candidate per question.) Good luck getting much in to that schedule. Ah, thanks. [I found it!](https://www.facebook.com/FoxNews/videos/10153438307721336/) I asked about VA funding, what’s your tax plan, what does the first amendment mean to you, and @Christie: Marijuana’s a potential cash cow, why so against it. 😃 It’s worth it to read some other questions. My favorite is “when will you deport the Obama family and Clinton family.”:rolleyes: Another one is: “What will you do to ensure Christians are not prosecuted for speaking out against gay marriage and will Christians be forced to conduct business that conflicts with their religious beliefs?” 😃 😃 Funny page of the day! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-gets-in-the-first-republican-debate/723817.md?page=7)