# Who is favored in the Walker/Warnock runoff for the Georgia Senate seat? (Updated: Warnock wins) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 10, 2022, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691 "2022-11-10T13:44:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/61 "2022-11-11T05:23:43Z")
This is true. She breaks any tie. Practically speaking though it would be a 50/50 party line vote. But it could be 49/49 party line or 50/50 with mixed voting. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/62 "2022-11-11T05:39:08Z")
Sure. Good family values man, Walker. Great speaker. Has very good ideas, and is able to make convincing arguments for them. Strong grasp of science too. Everyone else is stupid. Right? ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/63 "2022-11-11T05:55:12Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Great speaker. Has very good ideas, and is able to make convincing arguments for them. Strong grasp of science too. Everyone else is stupid. Right? I sometimes get confused about different levels of snark around here - is it oblique snark? direct snark? double-bluff snark? I mean you get SoToasty voted for Walker in THE POLL up above, right? Not actually for Senator. They don’t live in GA 🙂. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/64 "2022-11-11T09:14:28Z")
I too ~~voted for~~ picked Walker in the poll. Him winning the runoff would just be the icing on the stupid cake that was him being a viable candidate in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/65 "2022-11-11T14:05:45Z")
I’ll give another reason why Democrats need to fight hard for Warnock even if they end up controlling the Senate by winning AZ and NV – 2024 is going to be absolutely brutal for Senate Democrats. They’ll be defending 23 seats to the GOP’s 10. And many of those seats are either in cherry red states (WV, MT, OH) or purple states (WI, PA, NV, MI, AZ). Meanwhile there’s not a single Republican-held seat that’s a likely flip. They’re gonna need every seat they can get and a miracle to hold the Senate after the 2024 election. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/66 "2022-11-11T14:17:37Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > It’s beginning to look good for D wins in both AZ and NV, making this race of not as massive impact if so. In the Senate? Nevada looks like a Republican win right now. According to the latest, Laxalt is ahead 9000. Cortez Masto can expect to gain about 3000-5000 out of that from outstanding votes in Clark County (Vegas, more or less) but Laxalt is leading in almost every other county in Nevada, which while all smaller than Clark will still deliver him votes. Cortez Masto will be lucky to gain another thousand is Washoe. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/67 "2022-11-11T15:08:50Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > I mean you get SoToasty voted for Walker in THE POLL up above, right? Not actually for Senator. They don’t live in GA Yea, sure I got it… that’s the ticket. I’m no idjit! My girlfriend Morgan Fairchild will vouch for me. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/68 "2022-11-11T15:10:58Z")
Don’t feel bad . . . you didn’t accuse SoToasty of voter fraud too! ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/69 "2022-11-11T15:39:19Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > So one wild card is whether Trump’s ego will permit him to delay the announcement. Oh, please, oh, please. Do it, Donnie – you know you want to. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/70 "2022-11-11T15:42:29Z")
Never mind. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/71 "2022-11-11T16:15:52Z")
I just stated over in the Student Debt Relief thread that the message should be repeated in Georgia for the next few weeks is: “Do you have student debt? Democrats want to help you with some relief, but Republicans keep trying to take away that relief.” ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/72 "2022-11-11T16:28:06Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Plus, they need some redemptive storyline after this dumpster fire of an election to sell to their voters and donors. Except that a Walker victory wouldn’t be a redemptive storyline, it would be adding to the dumpster fire. Better to have him go away quietly if the Senate is already lost. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/73 "2022-11-11T17:08:45Z")
Best for the other threads. I’ll leave it that per pundits I believe the last dumps left them thinking she is more likely to win than not at this point, given what they expect the remaining vote to come in as. I don’t have the knowledge to argue the issue myself. For this thread just the hypothetical. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/74 "2022-11-11T17:17:49Z")
My aggregate observation is that Cortez Masto has about a 55% chance of winning at this point, down from 60% yesterday but up from 50% on Wednesday. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/75 "2022-11-11T17:49:59Z")
Given a hypothetical that by end of weekend Dems already have 50 seats, a GOP Senate minority leader (be it McConnell or as some rumor mills are having it, Rick Scott winning a challenge) and founders would see a GOP seat there as a plus in two years and even as helping the dynamic Dem duo denying Democratic deliveries … but years of Walker providing mass media fodder of stupidity or worse may be something they think as more liability than benefit, worth it to have control now but not on possible what ifs. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/76 "2022-11-11T18:01:52Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > (be it McConnell or as some rumor mills are having it, Rick Scott winning a challenge} I think Scott, current head of the NRSC, was pinning any hopes of besting McConnell on the Pub’s strong showing in Senate races on Tuesday. Those hopes have flown out the window. He’s got nothing to run a challenge on. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/77 "2022-11-11T21:07:35Z")
Except spite and a sense of “dagnabbit old man let someone else through”. Calls to delay leadership elections are rising in both bodies, as evidently the people who thought that they’d cruise into becoming power brokers or challenging the old leaders on the back of the “wave” realize that the old establishment is still standing and starting to pivot to, _Donald who_? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/78 "2022-11-11T23:20:03Z")
Yes, septuagenarian Rick Scott is apparently a young man in a hurry, per this Politico article; but has drawn back from challenging that old guy just yet. > **[Rick Scott Was Prepared to Take On McConnell — Until Tuesday](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/10/rick-scott-mcconnell-midterm-elections-martin-00066400)** > > The NRSC head thought a wave of victories for Trump-inspired candidates would give him enhanced stature, until most of those candidates crashed and burned. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/79 "2022-11-12T00:16:03Z")
I can picture McConnell glancing semi-bemusedly at Rick Scott lying wounded and bleeding on the ground. “You come at the king, you best not miss.” ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691/80 "2022-11-12T02:26:40Z")
I suppose it is one of those things that is structural to the Senate – it was always designed to not be as easily succeptible to the flavor-of-the-year trends. Facts are, though, when in the majority, McConnell delivers the conservative agenda effectively where it really counts. Three SCOTUS seats for decades is a greater plus than whether you let a dying old colleague block Obamacare repeal, any day of the week. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-favored-in-the-walker-warnock-runoff-for-the-georgia-senate-seat-updated-warnock-wins/974691.md?page=5)