# Who is organizing/supporting the "caravan"? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 22, 2018, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326 "2018-10-22T12:25:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2018, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/121 "2018-10-24T21:41:04Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Surely this is true, as you use the phrase, for anyone who tries something and is rejected by another: they were merely trying to “game the system”. > > That kid who applied to a college he didn’t get admitted to? Gaming the system. > > That guy who tried out for the NFL but didn’t make the cut? Gaming the system. > > Hillary Clinton was just “gaming the system” when she ran and lost, right? Just like Ted Cruz and John McCain and George Bush and Bob Dole… “system gamers” all, right? > > :rolleyes: If someone earning $100k a year tries to apply for welfare and is rejected, that’s not the same as someone who applies for welfare for legit cause and gets turned down. The former is trying to game the system and the latter is not. Not that I am saying that these Central American migrants are $100k earners but you get my point. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/122 "2018-10-25T00:13:45Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > If someone earning $100k a year tries to apply for welfare and is rejected, that’s not the same as someone who applies for welfare for legit cause and gets turned down. The former is trying to game the system and the latter is not. > > Not that I am saying that these Central American migrants are $100k earners but you get my point. I know what the phrase means. And I see how **magellan01** tries to wield it like a club, too. Since the phrase does not likely apply to the overwhelming majority of people making a 1500 mile trek on foot that has no guarantee of a happy ending this is an assertion that I could not let go unchallenged: it’s idiotic. It’s idiotic to think that everyone who applies for asylum in the US who does not receive it was lying and scheming. It’s so far detached from even possible reality, that it deserved note and scorn, IMO. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/123 "2018-10-25T00:32:04Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Can someone explain why giving more money to these countries will make things better? It’s an honest question. More isn’t always better. In some cases, it can even worsen problems if it’s going into a program that is poorly crafted. Just looking at the number going up or down isn’t all that useful IMO. USAID’s [Country Development Cooperation Strategy for Honduras](https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1862/HondurasCDCS_2015-2019.pdf), on the other hand, breaks out the lines of effort for assistance. (That’s the CDCS itself in pdf format and the page it’s linked from is here.) This plan was developed in conjunction with the Government of Honduras (GOH) based on their request for assistance. The execution of the plan is in conjunction with both GOH and NGOs. It also parallels a regional agreement between the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador and Guatemala, and Honduras), [the Alliance for Prosperity](http://idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument.aspx?docnum=39224238). Those countries have committed 5.4 Billion USD to working towards those complementary objectives. The US committed less than a third of the funds to efforts in those three countries; we bring the benefit of long service government officials expertise that’s hard to account for. Briefly, the three development objectives support security, prosperity, governance. There’s supporting intermediate results for the development onjectives(DOs) to be pursued in the CDCS if you want to dig in but the three DOs in the CDCS for Honduras are: > [@](#): > > ``` > DO 1: Citizen Security Increased For Vulnerable Populations In Urban, High-Crime Areas > DO 2: Extreme Poverty Sustainably Reduced For Vulnerable Populations In Western Honduras > DO 3: National-level public administration is more transparent and accountable > > ``` We’re not simply giving money to the Northern Triangle countries. We’re spending money and providing assistance to specific programs tied to specific changes we, and they, agree will help their domestic instability. They are paying the bulk of the funding needed and we’re helping. Assessing the effectiveness of specific programs is hard. Determining adequate funding to do a good cost-benefit analysis is hard. Most of us are too profoundly ignorant of the subject to have anything resembling an informed opinion about specific levels of funding. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/124 "2018-10-25T02:49:04Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Surely this is true, as you use the phrase, for anyone who tries something and is rejected by another: they were merely trying to “game the system”. > > That kid who applied to a college he didn’t get admitted to? Gaming the system. > > That guy who tried out for the NFL but didn’t make the cut? Gaming the system. > > Hillary Clinton was just “gaming the system” when she ran and lost, right? Just like Ted Cruz and John McCain and George Bush and Bob Dole… “system gamers” all, right? > > :rolleyes: No. As **Velocity** pointed out, you do not understand the point. A closer example would be if someone who is not really a minority, checks a box on a college application as a minority, say Native American, at an elite university. It may work, it won’t hurt, so, hey, why not? Does that help you understand “gaming the system” better? ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/125 "2018-10-25T02:52:09Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I know what the phrase means. Your posts indicate otherwise. > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Since the phrase does not likely apply to the overwhelming majority of people making a 1500 mile trek on foot that has no guarantee of a happy ending this is an assertion that I could not let go unchallenged: it’s idiotic. It’s idiotic to think that everyone who applies for asylum in the US who does not receive it was lying and scheming. . Good thing no one made that claim then. Whew. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/126 "2018-10-25T03:01:34Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > I’m curious on how it is you know whether or not the people traveling in that caravan have a legitimate petition? I do not know about the validity of any individual, but given some of the interviews I’ve seen of the people and the history of previous groups, it’s safe to say that there are: 1. people simply looking for a better life 2. those who genuinely believe they are deserving of asylum and will have it granted 3. those who genuinely believe they are deserving of asylum and will have it denied 4. those who have no legitimate claim to asylum yet will claim it illegitimately. Do you disagree? ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/127 "2018-10-25T03:24:49Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > I think I read that the percent of people in the last year or so who had their potions granted was around 20%. The remainder are just trying to game the system. And that is the problem with the caravan. They are not all asylum seekers\> and an even smaller number are people seeking asylum who will be granted asylum. The reality is that they just want to come here because their home country sucks. That’s a legitimate reason for them to want to leave and try to come here, but not a legitimate reason that the U.S. must accept them. [Let’s break down that claim, shall we?](https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/jul/02/jeff-sessions/jeff-sesssions-false-claim-80-percent-asylum-appli/) Additional reasons not mentioned in the linked article why an asylum applicant might not be granted asylum might be: a) the applicant was granted another, more straightforward form of relief from deportation, so the asylum case never needed to be decided on its merits (such as a marriage-based green card application); b) the applicant had a well-founded fear of persecution based on one of the protected grounds, but was disqualified from asylum eligibility for an unrelated reason (missing the one-year deadline, having a disqualifying criminal conviction - and you might be surprised how minor a conviction can be that disqualifies someone from asylum eligibility); c) the applicant might have a well-founded fear of persecution, but was unable to convince the judge of that for reasons such as PTSD, mental illness, lack of education/sophistication, illiteracy, detention hundreds of miles away from legal assistance with no access to a phone or research materials, lack of access to information and documentation corroborating his/her claim, or, you know, being a traumatized, non-English-speaking toddler separated from all family members; d) Almost forgot this one! The applicant may have gotten shitty legal advice from previous counsel. In fact, I’m working on a case right now for a married couple who got incorrect legal advice from not one, but two previous lawyers about their eligibility for asylum and/or withholding of removal as each other’s dependents (they each have independent claims). And these are literate, college-educated people, not illiterate Central American farmers. I’m sure there are other reasons I’m not thinking of. And a chunk of the cases mentioned in the linked that are administratively closed may be in that status because, say, the immigration judge used some of the last remaining shreds of judicial discretion that immigration judges have left to, for example, administratively close the case because the asylum applicant is married to a U.S. citizen, and requested time for the marriage petition to be decided on its merits by USCIS so the entire system, which is beyond overloaded, didn’t have to waste resources adjudicating an asylum case when the applicant might have a much more straightforward route to permanent residence. **Eva Luna,** Immigration Paralegal Former court interpreter, Executive Office for Immigration Review, Office of the Immigration Judge ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/128 "2018-10-25T03:39:27Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > No. As **Velocity** pointed out, you do not understand the point. A closer example would be if someone who is not really a minority, checks a box on a college application as a minority, say Native American, at an elite university. It may work, it won’t hurt, so, hey, why not? Does that help you understand “gaming the system” better? Saying you didn’t make the point you did make and then making the same point again isn’t helping your case. > [@magellan01](#): > > I think I read that the percent of people in the last year or so who had their potions granted was around 20%. The remainder are just trying to game the system. No, not everyone who isn’t granted asylum is “gaming the system”. That’s idiotic. Prove it to me. Show me that the other 80% of asylum applicants were somehow attempting to fraudulently gain a grant of asylum. Show me that none of the rejected applications simply didn’t meet the criteria for asylum and that all of them were frauds. You made the claim; now back it up. Cite? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/129 "2018-10-25T04:01:42Z")
> [@Eva\_Luna](#): > > **Eva Luna,** Immigration Paralegal > > Former court interpreter, Executive Office for Immigration Review, Office of the Immigration Judge 🙂 I love this board. ---
**Author:** ![Barack\_Obama](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/dc4da7/32.png) [@Barack\_Obama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barack_Obama)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/130 "2018-10-25T04:05:03Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > did 5000 people simply decide at the same time to leave? Or did a smaller group decide, and numbers just grew? > > But the second issue concerns support during the effort itself. 1. The caravans are blow-back from 2009 when the US attempted to legitimize the Honduran coup. This specific caravan came from San Pedro Sula, which has a murder rate of 159 per 100,000. To put that into comparison for you, Chicago’s murder rate fluctuates between 15-20 per 100,000. 2. The office of refugee resettlement will be the ones to support them once. They spends about 500mil each year (not their entire budget), they help stabilize the refugees in numerous ways. For comparison, in the short period of time Trump had his family detention going on down by the border that costed about 2 billion dollars. It’s cheaper to help these people relocate and get back on their feet. Also, for a person to claim asylum they must be at a designated port of entry (the southern border), you cannot claim asylum at an embassy. That’s how the law works. The whole caravan situation with people grouping together like a “mob” is because there is safety in numbers. They are traveling far, and it’s dangerous so people from many different countries stick together to make this trip. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/131 "2018-10-25T04:11:31Z")
> [@Barack\_Obama](#): > > 1. The caravans are blow-back from 2009 when the US attempted to legitimize the Honduran coup. This specific caravan came from San Pedro Sula, which has a murder rate of 159 per 100,000. To put that into comparison for you, Chicago’s murder rate fluctuates between 15-20 per 100,000. > > 2. The office of refugee resettlement will be the ones to support them once. They spends about 500mil each year (not their entire budget), they help stabilize the refugees in numerous ways. For comparison, in the short period of time Trump had his family detention going on down by the border that costed about 2 billion dollars. It’s cheaper to help these people relocate and get back on their feet. > Also, for a person to claim asylum they must be at a designated port of entry (the southern border), you cannot claim asylum at an embassy. That’s how the law works. The whole caravan situation with people grouping together like a “mob” is because there is safety in numbers. They are traveling far, and it’s dangerous so people from many different countries stick together to make this trip. I also just watched [Beau’s video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fCCnOsQiv0)! ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/132 "2018-10-25T12:16:10Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m not sure about the “makes it to the US” part. If someone sneaks across the Rio Grande, spends the next 4 years living in Detroit (for example), finally gets detained by ICE, should they be able to then ask for asylum as they’re getting hauled away in cuffs and be treated the same as someone who presented themselves at a port of entry and requested it? Well, according to my understanding, people have up to 1 year after being in the US to claim asylum unless they have extraordinary circumstances. So, ‘no’ to your question. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/133 "2018-10-25T12:17:23Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > I do not know about the validity of any individual, but given some of the interviews I’ve seen of the people and the history of previous groups, it’s safe to say that there are: > > 1. people simply looking for a better life > 2. those who genuinely believe they are deserving of asylum and will have it granted > 3. those who genuinely believe they are deserving of asylum and will have it denied > 4. those who have no legitimate claim to asylum yet will claim it illegitimately. > > Do you disagree? No I don’t disagree. But so what? ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/134 "2018-10-25T13:45:33Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > Well, according to my understanding, people have up to 1 year after being in the US to claim asylum unless they have extraordinary circumstances. > > So, ‘no’ to your question. However after the 1-year deadline they can still apply for relief from removal called “withholding of removal” or under the Convention Against Torture. Those forms of relief have somewhat different burdens of proof, and don’t include dependents unless the dependents have (and win) independent claims. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/135 "2018-10-25T13:55:05Z")
> [@Eva\_Luna](#): > > However after the 1-year deadline they can still apply for relief from removal called “withholding of removal” or under the Convention Against Torture. Those forms of relief have somewhat different burdens of proof, and don’t include dependents unless the dependents have (and win) independent claims. Well I DID say “unless they have extraordinary circumstances” 🙂 but seriously, thanks for the extra info! ---
**Author:** ![EarlGrayHot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e480ec/32.png) [@EarlGrayHot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EarlGrayHot)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/136 "2018-10-25T14:10:20Z")
These people are indeed poor-mostly without many resources. They do not seem like a worthwhile target of gangs. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/137 "2018-10-25T14:17:49Z")
> [@EarlGrayHot](#): > > These people are indeed poor-mostly without many resources. They do not seem like a worthwhile target of gangs. As pointed out above, these people are likely travelling with all their worldly possessions, and even without “stuff” there is money to be made in people trafficking so girls and women are particularly vulnerable. They’re low-value targets but they’re also easy ones. ---
**Author:** ![Filbert](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/filbert/32/3433_2.png) [@Filbert](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Filbert)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/138 "2018-10-25T14:32:11Z")
> [@EarlGrayHot](#): > > These people are indeed poor-mostly without many resources. They do not seem like a worthwhile target of gangs. Gangs aren’t necessarily only interested in immediate money, they also often want things like labour, disposable new members (especially teens) and of course ‘fun’ (including rape targets). To the sufficiently unscrupulous, the poor _are_ a resource. Plus poor doesn’t mean they have nothing at all and it’s a lot easier to get the little a poor person owns off them than it is to get the lot a rich person owns. Poor people can’t afford to defend themselves so well. ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/139 "2018-10-25T23:53:29Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > but seriously, thanks for the extra info! Anytime! And bonus, because there are so many misconceptions flying around, [here’s a basic primer on how the asylum and refugee processes work.](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/asylum-united-states) ---
**Author:** ![drivekiller](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/cdc98d/32.png) [@drivekiller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drivekiller)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2018, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326/140 "2018-10-26T05:35:28Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I understand the question. I suppose my title should have been \*\* Who - if anyone - is organizing/supporting the “caravan.”\*\* > > I see a couple of different issues. First, as you suggest, did 5000 people simply decide at the same time to leave? Or did a smaller group decide, and numbers just grew? I suppose that is possible, though I have no personal experience with groups just spontaneously forming like that. It seems as tho even protest marches and letter writing campaigns have SOME amount of organization - whether by interest groups, a small core of people, etc. > > But the second issue concerns support during the effort itself. Yes, I suppose there might be no support/organization. The participants could simply be supporting themselves “off the land”, and/or could be depending upon kindness of people/entities they encounter. My frame of reference is US parades/runs/festivals/etc. Porta-potties, food and aid stations, traffic/crowd control. I realize there is nothing of such scale for this caravan, but I’m wondering what - if any - coordination is taking place. The Crusades. Yeah, those Crusades. A small group sets out and talks up their quest at every inn on the route… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-organizing-supporting-the-caravan/823326.md?page=8)