# Who is papable right now? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 19, 2025, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475 "2025-02-19T01:01:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2025, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/21 "2025-02-19T15:28:43Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > That means that favourites never win this contest. No, sometimes papabile do get elected. Paul VI was an example, and Benedict. The Wikipedia article I posted early on in this thread (before the cuckoo for coca/puffs hijack) gives a good breakdown of papabile who were elected over the past century, and some who weren’t. Siri is a good example of one who wasn’t. He was a leading candidate in four conclaves, but was passed over for John in 1958, then Paul in 1963, and then twenty-five years later in 1978 by JP I and JP II. (Which triggered this weird conspiracy theory that Siri _really_ was elected in 1958, but _they_ overruled his election and held him hostage until he agreed to pretend John had been elected, and therefore all of Vatican II was illegitimate and without authority.) _They_. You know, the Stone Cutters. “We do, we do!” The article also mentions that John wasn’t such a surprise to Vatican insiders as he appeared to the public on his election, that he was quite popular and respected by fellow cardinals, just not talked about much. I’ve always understood that saying as more along the lines of “Don’t count your chickens until they’re hatched.” ---
**Author:** ![Zoobi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/13edae/32.png) [@Zoobi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoobi)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2025, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/22 "2025-02-19T15:34:48Z")
It will be a get important decision. If they make the wrong choice (i.e. too much empathy for immigrants and care for the poor, tolerance of LGBTQ, etc) the American Catholics might very well split away. This new global unification of conservative forces will want to get the Vatican under it’s thumb. ---
**Author:** ![Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba9def/32.png) [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Just_Asking_Questions)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2025, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/23 "2025-02-19T15:43:01Z")
> [@Zoobi](#): > > If they make the wrong choice (i.e. too much empathy for immigrants and care for the poor, tolerance of LGBTQ, etc) the American Catholics might very well split away. I think you have that backwards. American Catholics support those things. They even support divorce and birth control. It’s American “Christians” that don’t, but they think Catholics aren’t even Christian, so whatever. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2025, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/24 "2025-02-19T15:48:43Z")
Anyone who is interested in papal elections should read Father Andrew Greeley’s book, _The Making of the Popes 1978_. He gives an in-depth account of both of the 1978 conclaves, along with a fascinating appendix on the 20th century conclaves, including vote breakdowns. “But that’s all secret with the cardinals swearing never to reveal the voting!!” you protest. Sure it is. But of course, two old cardinal friends, getting together at a nice trattoria, will naturally chat a bit about events…. Word gets out. … One interesting thing Greeley mentions is that as a sociologist-journalist, he had developed an early computer program that tried to factor in all the characteristics of each candidate, matching them against factors that were known to be important to the cardinal-electors, the Curia, and the church, to predict who were the front-runners. In the first 1978 conclave, one of the front-runners identified by the computer program was the Archbishop of Venice, Cardinal Albino Luciani. Greeley and his group discounted that, because everyone knew that Luciano wasn’t in the running. He was from Venice, not a Curia insider. No way the Conclave would leave the Curia. Until John-Paul I came out on the balcony. Then, at the second conclave in 1978, Greeley’s computer program identified some Polish cardinal as a front-runner . Greeley discounted that as well, because there hadn’t been a non-Italian pope in centuries. No way the conclave would leave Italy. Then JP II came out on the balcony… ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2025, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/25 "2025-02-20T03:24:55Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > then twenty-five years later in 1978 My math is not good. 15 years later in 1978 ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/26 "2025-02-22T05:16:19Z")
On doing some reading on this topic, one name that keeps coming up is Cardinal Pizzaballa, the archbishop of Jerusalem. > **[Pierbattista Pizzaballa](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierbattista_Pizzaballa)** > > Pierbattista Pizzaballa OFM (born 21 April 1965) is an Italian Catholic prelate who has served as Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem since 6 November 2020. A Franciscan friar, he served as Custos of the Holy Land from 2004 to 2016 and as Apostolic Administrator of the Latin Patriarchate from 2016 to 2020. He was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023. > Pierbattista Pizzaballa was born in Cologno al Serio, Bergamo, son of Pietro and Maria Maddalena Tadini. He entered the Franciscan minor seminary in... At 59 he’s on the younger side, and seems to be more liberal compared to a lot of the older cardinals. He’s also been doing things to get his name out there, including offering himself in exchange for the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas. ---
**Author:** ![EinsteinsHund](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/einsteinshund/32/8400_2.png) [@EinsteinsHund](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EinsteinsHund)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/27 "2025-02-22T09:34:08Z")
I’m doubtful that they pick the second Franciscan in a row. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/28 "2025-02-22T11:23:18Z")
Pope Pizza Balls! Seriously, though, he’d be an interesting choice ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/29 "2025-02-22T13:36:08Z")
> [@EinsteinsHund](#): > > doubtful that they pick the second Franciscan in a row Francis is a Jesuit. Bergoglio just admired St. Francis and wanted that spirit of kindness to symbolize his reign. And yes, “Cardinal Pizza Ball” would cause much giggling in the memesphere. ---
**Author:** ![EinsteinsHund](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/einsteinshund/32/8400_2.png) [@EinsteinsHund](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EinsteinsHund)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/30 "2025-02-22T13:48:01Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > Francis is a Jesuit. Bergoglio just admired St. Francis and wanted that spirit of kindness to symbolize his reign. D’oh, I knew that, I had a brainfart. Confused his choice of papal name with his order. ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/31 "2025-02-22T15:04:29Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > And yes, “Cardinal Pizza Ball” would cause much giggling in the memesphere. About as much as “Papa Ratzi”\* " (+nger = Benedict) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/32 "2025-02-22T15:15:03Z")
> [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](#): > > I think you have that backwards. American Catholics support those things. They even support divorce and birth control. American Catholic people support those things at about the same rate as the general American population. American Catholic religious (i.e., monks and nuns) overwhelmingly support those things. American Catholic bishops are overwhelmingly conservative, and give lip service to supporting those things, but give them lower priority than, say, getting Republicans elected. So it’s really a question of whose influence holds the most sway. But as for “splitting from the Church”, there are already a lot of Americans who call themselves Catholic but who deny the authority of the Pope, in response to Francis’ liberalness. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2025, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/33 "2025-02-22T15:20:01Z")
There is no Cardinal Papaltine who could be made palpably papable, by Force if need be, is there? ---
**Author:** ![Coriolanus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coriolanus/32/18769_2.png) [@Coriolanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coriolanus)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2025, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/34 "2025-02-23T03:32:18Z")
Somehow “papabile” sounds worse. As a baptised yet non-practicing-catholic (last mass was Christmas 2023 and it was Anglican and they read the Book of Linus, I mean the Anglican Book of Luke (2:8-20 and yes, I had to look that up ) and afterwards whispered to my wife, "That’s what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown’) Got nothing religious to add, except the St. Louis Cardinals are a not-good-baseball-squadron! ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2025, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/35 "2025-02-23T06:05:30Z")
As an update, I saw Pope Francis is in critical condition. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2025, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/36 "2025-02-23T06:27:19Z")
Yes, his poor health is being discussed in the bronchitis thread: > [@Pope Francis is on "absolute rest" for bronchitis: Feb 2025](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pope-francis-is-on-absolute-rest-for-bronchitis-feb-2025/1014368/): > > I’m not Catholic, but I do know that his health has been faltering in recent years. There’s some chatter that he’s actually terminally ill; we’ll find out eventually. Could they have a Pope from Africa? A great many Catholics there. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2025, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/37 "2025-02-23T06:42:40Z")
They’ve had 3 of them: Victor I, Miltiades and Gelasius I ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2025, 6:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/38 "2025-02-23T06:45:18Z")
But those were more than 1500 years ago: time for another one? ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2025, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/39 "2025-02-23T06:51:00Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > But those were more than 1500 years ago In the grand scheme of the Universe, that’s like yesterday. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2025, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475/40 "2025-02-23T20:54:01Z")
Last time, a Nigerian priest was in the running. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-papable-right-now/1014475.md?page=3)