Not yet. But he’s surprisingly close. Here are the top career leaders in Fangraphs WAR:
Musial 139.3
Gehrig 125.9
Foxx 112.3
Rose 91.5
Anson 88.7
Pujols 87.8
I don’t think many would mentally categorize Musial or Rose as primarily first basement, and Anson played a completely different game.
So I’d say he’s probably 3rd or 4th all-time amongst 1B at this point. I think he could pretty easily add 50 wins to his total by the time he’s done, and possibly quite a bit more.
a) Fuck the Yankees
b) I’m a Padres fan
c) I LOVED watching Hoffman make people look bad with that filthy, filthy change up, and
d) Closers are the most irrelevant, overrated position in the history of the game, so who cares?
I probably like ERA+ too much, but to add to the Mo-train, note that Rivera is #1 all-time (at 206!) among pitchers with 1000+ innings, and by a country mile (next highest is Pedro at 154). Unfair to compare Mo to starters, but other relievers are on that list, too, and Hoffman clocks in well behind at 141. Mo’s sub-1 WHIP is also pretty sweet.
Damn Yankees, but yeah, I can’t choose anyone else.
I’ll acknowledge that Rivera is probably the best of all time, with a big assist from pitching in an era where he practically NEVER has to throw more than one inning with his one-pitch repertoire. Still, I voted for Goose above out of sentiment. Man, I used to hate that guy
For me, the arguments about multiple innings per appearance are not that persuasive, and not only because Rivera pitched more than an inning more often than you think.
In any given year, all things being equal the older guys would throw 20-30 more innings. But Rivera has thrown 1,150 career innings as a late-game reliever, and will almost definitely finish with more than 1,200. Rollie Fingers threw 1,700 innings total, but that includes 37 starts, so around 1,500 in relief, maybe. Gossage, same problem, but call it almost 1,600. Eckersley, 790 after moving to closer. Sutter 1,042, Lee Smith 1,289 total including a few starts. Quisenberry, 1,040. Rivera has also appeared in more games total than anyone on the list other than Eckersley, and threw 140 postseason innings when he was even better than regular Rivera (his postseason ERA is 1.46. I’m just kidding; that’s his postseason ERA plus his postseason WHIP).
If we’re really comparing the shapes of these guys’ careers as relievers, in other words, how many 3-plus inning appearances one of them had doesn’t amount to much except in a couple of cases. The question in those cases is, essentially, whether you’d rather have Livan Hernandez for 10 years or Pedro Martinez for 10 years. One will give you a couple hundred more innings. The other will give up fewer runs than anyone ever. A vote for anyone other than Rivera is a conscious act of war against the concept of a free society, is what I’m trying to say.
The biggest difference is that in facing almost 500 more batters than Hoffman over the course of his career, Rivera has allowed 32 fewer walks, 35 fewer home runs, 25 fewer runs, and 85 fewer total bases. 500 batters is about 2 full seasons from Hoffman’s career, for comparison purposes. It’s very difficult to imagine how we could come up with a useful statistic that didn’t put Rivera way ahead under the circumstances. He’s been significantly less hittable any way you measure it.
That said, a clarification about Win Probability: that measures actual game situations, including stuff that’s out of the player’s control. If Hoffman comes in and strikes out the side on 9 pitches in the top of the 9th, but his team is down 4, he’s barely affected Win Probability. If Rivera comes in and pitches terribly but saves the game, he’s added whatever it took to get the team’s Win Probability to 100%. It’s not actually a direct measure of how well you’ve played, in other words, even though it should be a decent indirect one. So Rivera’s having a higher Win Probability is due to the exact opposite of your objection, Cheesesteak. The only factor is overapplies is what the real-world game situation was and whether you made it better or worse.