# Who Is Winning In Syria? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 30, 2012, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316 "2012-10-30T12:33:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Esco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/9de053/32.png) [@Esco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esco)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/61 "2013-04-25T13:32:32Z")
Stalemate ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/62 "2013-04-25T14:02:24Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I guess I’ve rolled into bizarro world. Sometimes I think the left on this board just defines itself oppositionally. > > Here you have me, an avowed conservative arguing: > > 1. U.S. involvement in Syria may not present a clear option that is positive for the United States. > 2. U.S. involvement in Syria may not be good for Syria, either. > > In response it feels like the liberals here are arguing that we should take an activist stance on foreign policy and meddle in the internal affairs of other countries “because we might make things better.” I remember a time during the Bush Presidency where those exact same concepts were routinely dismissed by liberals here. > > And as for me focusing on what’s good for America, I’m an American, I care about human tragedies but my first interest is that my country does what is best for it in international relations, and I don’t see a clear “good option” for us in Syria. > > Secondarily, as has been proven after our meddling in other countries over the years our intervention can often serve no good or even make things worse for the citizens of that country. Indeed. I’m thinking back to 2002 where someone might say: “As bad as Saddam Hussein is, he isn’t a threat to the US” and someone like **Der Trihs** coming along and labeling that person pro-Saddam. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/63 "2013-04-25T14:10:37Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I guess I’ve rolled into bizarro world. Sometimes I think the left on this board just defines itself oppositionally. > > Here you have me, an avowed conservative arguing: > > 1. U.S. involvement in Syria may not present a clear option that is positive for the United States. > 2. U.S. involvement in Syria may not be good for Syria, either. > > In response it feels like the liberals here are arguing that we should take an activist stance on foreign policy and meddle in the internal affairs of other countries “because we might make things better.” I remember a time during the Bush Presidency where those exact same concepts were routinely dismissed by liberals here. > > And as for me focusing on what’s good for America, I’m an American, I care about human tragedies but my first interest is that my country does what is best for it in international relations, and I don’t see a clear “good option” for us in Syria. > > Secondarily, as has been proven after our meddling in other countries over the years our intervention can often serve no good or even make things worse for the citizens of that country. Yeah, this is pegging out my industrial strength irony meter…it’s got an alarm on it with a slight Scots accent saying ‘she’ll blow, captain!’ when it gets this high. 😛 I agree with you…we shouldn’t get involved either way. It’s not our fight, and basically when we DO get involved we make big messes. Who’s winning? I’d have to say that the longer Assad manages to stay in power the stronger his position is going to become, and so far he’s managed to hang on longer than some predicted. The big losers are, of course, the Syrian people…I think that, regardless of who wins they are going to lose, and they are certainly paying a large price for it. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/64 "2013-04-25T14:42:08Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Speaking as Syria’s nervous neighbor, I can’t say I’m either pro- or anti-Assad. I have no love for the man and would be happy to see him go, but what I really am is anti-chaos. I don’t want al-Qaeda on the Golan Heights. I don’t want Hizballah to get chemical weapons. I want things to calm down and for rational people to take charge of the country. > > I’m sorry if I come off as more interested in Israel’s benefit than in that of the Syrian people, but for me, it’s not a matter of abstract “great game” geopolitics. It’s missiles on my house. And frankly, my country was at war with Syria long before the Assads came into power, and chances are, we’ll still be at war with whoever replaces them. Better the devil you know than the one yopu don’t. This has always been the West’s dilemma in dealing with the muslim world-you have a choice between a bad rulers and another bad ruler. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/65 "2013-04-25T15:39:48Z")
Just to make this more fun, Secretary of State Hagel said the U.S. thinks the Assad regime has used some chemical weapons. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/66 "2013-04-25T15:56:16Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Yeah, this is pegging out my industrial strength irony meter…it’s got an alarm on it with a slight Scots accent saying ‘she’ll blow, captain!’ when it gets this high. 😛 > > I agree with you…we shouldn’t get involved either way. It’s not our fight, and basically when we DO get involved we make big messes. Who’s winning? I’d have to say that the longer Assad manages to stay in power the stronger his position is going to become, and so far he’s managed to hang on longer than some predicted. The big losers are, of course, the Syrian people…I think that, regardless of who wins they are going to lose, and they are certainly paying a large price for it. The part that kind of blows my mind about anyone here being called pro-Assad, is that I haven’t heard anyone calling for us to help him. He’s a bastard, I’m sure he knows it himself. That’s why no one is offering help to him. All I’ve seen here so far are people that aren’t sure they want to help arm the folks who are fighting him. Perhaps that’s assisting Assad in the “all it takes for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing” sense, but that’s pretty weak to be calling it support. There are situations where it’s not our fight, but we could get involved and it come out as a net positive for both ourselves and the people we are helping. This isn’t a situation where there is a clear path to that. Sometimes self interest has to rule the day. Even though our inaction will make our position with the successor government weaker if Assad does fall, there appears to be a good chance that Syria after Assad might look like 20th century Lebanon for awhile. If the most likely outcomes at the moment are either more Assad, or something similar to the Lebanese Civil War; we want nothing to do with this war. ETA: Nitpick: Sec of Defense, and yeah that makes this interesting in the Chinese proverb sense, huh? ---
**Author:** ![I\_Made\_French\_Toast\_For\_You](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/858c86/32.png) [@I\_Made\_French\_Toast\_For\_You](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Made_French_Toast_For_You)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/67 "2013-04-25T15:59:07Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > To be blunt—the fact is that Assad is only killing _his own_ people (gee, such a nice guy..) > But that’s better for the rest of the world than killing _other people_. > > It’s a terrible humanitarian tragedy–just like North Korea. But , like N. Korea, interference from western nations could make it worse. > Right now, the tragedy is confined to Syria, and Assad has a long history of not trying to spread his cruelty beyond his own borders. > When Assad falls, the one and only option for a new goverment will be a fanatic Islamic group. They will be just as cruel, but will proudly declare that they intend to spread their violence outside of Syria. They have already attacked Israel several times, across a border which Assad kept peaceful for 35 years. The tragedy is NOT confined to Syria, due in part to the refugee crisis (for example, 20% of the population of Lebanon is now “Syrian refugee without adequate food/water/housing/protection from crime”). Some rebel groups are spreading violence outside Syria’s border too, as you’ve mentioned. It’s a regional issue now. A fanatic Islamic group is not the one and only option if Assad falls. There are many different flavors of opposition, including peaceful and secular groups – unfortunately we only hear about the most violent/radical ones. > [@Martin Hyde](#): > > I guess I’ve rolled into bizarro world. Sometimes I think the left on this board just defines itself oppositionally. > > Here you have me, an avowed conservative arguing: > > 1. U.S. involvement in Syria may not present a clear option that is positive for the United States. > 2. U.S. involvement in Syria may not be good for Syria, either. > > In response it feels like the liberals here are arguing that we should take an activist stance on foreign policy and meddle in the internal affairs of other countries “because we might make things better.” I remember a time during the Bush Presidency where those exact same concepts were routinely dismissed by liberals here. > > And as for me focusing on what’s good for America, I’m an American, I care about human tragedies but my first interest is that my country does what is best for it in international relations, and I don’t see a clear “good option” for us in Syria. > > Secondarily, as has been proven after our meddling in other countries over the years our intervention can often serve no good or even make things worse for the citizens of that country. Rather than comparing the Syria crisis to Bush’s debacles, I think we should be comparing it to the Bosnian war, or even Rwanda. The arguments you make above are similar to arguments made by most Americans when Clinton wanted to intervene in Bosnia. He did so, it helped to resolve the crisis, and Eastern Europe is a MUCH better place for it. We refrained from intervening in Rwanda (like we’re refraining from Syrian now) in part because of an earlier interventionist fiasco in Somalia (as we’re blaming Bush’s fiascos now), with the result being a prolonged humanitarian crisis that we ignored. “Meddling in the internal affairs of other countries” is absolutely something we should do, if the circumstances call for it, because it sometimes _does_ make things better. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/68 "2013-04-25T16:37:27Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Just to make this more fun, Secretary of State Hagel said the U.S. thinks the Assad regime has used some chemical weapons. He’s the Secretary of **Defense.** John Kerry is SoS. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/69 "2013-04-25T16:52:23Z")
> [@I\_Made\_French\_Toast\_For\_You](#): > > Rather than comparing the Syria crisis to Bush’s debacles, I think we should be comparing it to the Bosnian war, or even Rwanda. The arguments you make above are similar to arguments made by most Americans when Clinton wanted to intervene in Bosnia. He did so, it helped to resolve the crisis, and Eastern Europe is a MUCH better place for it. > > We refrained from intervening in Rwanda (like we’re refraining from Syrian now) in part because of an earlier interventionist fiasco in Somalia (as we’re blaming Bush’s fiascos now), with the result being a prolonged humanitarian crisis that we ignored. “Meddling in the internal affairs of other countries” is absolutely something we should do, if the circumstances call for it, because it sometimes _does_ make things better. I recall that Clinton once remarked that it was his greatest regret from his terms in office, that he failed to intervene in Rwanda. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/70 "2013-04-25T16:53:30Z")
BTW, do the Israelis have any opinion as to who they want to win this? ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/71 "2013-04-25T17:33:48Z")
Serious question for those with some knowledge of the situation - I know that the Assad family, while they ran an avowedly “secular” regime, drew much support from the Alawite minority that makes up something like 12% of the population and are considered “heretics” by the fundie Sunni Islamic types. Presumably, if the Syrian government falls, the outlook for these people is going to be grim. Is this part of what makes the conflict there so bitter? If so, it creates particular problems for US intervention. It would be a major humiliation if the US intervened on behalf of the rebels, only to watch as the rebels engaged in some sort of pogrom against the Alawites. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/72 "2013-04-25T17:45:56Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Serious question for those with some knowledge of the situation - I know that the Assad family, while they ran an avowedly “secular” regime, drew much support from the Alawite minority that makes up something like 12% of the population and are considered “heretics” by the fundie Sunni Islamic types. Presumably, if the Syrian government falls, the outlook for these people is going to be grim. > > Is this part of what makes the conflict there so bitter? > > If so, it creates particular problems for US intervention. It would be a major humiliation if the US intervened on behalf of the rebels, only to watch as the rebels engaged in some sort of pogrom against the Alawites. Good point-if we intervene, we will wind up taking sides-and there are enough sides in Syria to guarantee that we will become “the bad guys”..in about a week.The sunnis hatethe Shia, who hate the Christians, who hate the Alawites, who hate the Druse. Any intervention wopuld cost the US many lives, billions of $$, and any goodwill we have left. STAY OUT! ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/73 "2013-04-25T17:50:59Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > It would be a major humiliation if the US intervened on behalf of the rebels, only to watch as the rebels engaged in some sort of pogrom against the Alawites. From what I know of the area, that pogrom (I would actually upgrade it to “massacre”) is pretty much guaranteed if Assad falls. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/74 "2013-04-25T17:52:26Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > He’s the Secretary of **Defense.** John Kerry is SoS. Right, thank you. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/75 "2013-04-25T19:02:12Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > From what I know of the area, that pogrom (I would actually upgrade it to “massacre”) is pretty much guaranteed if Assad falls. The ethnic divides in Syria make Iraq look like Japan. This could be horrible, but I’m just not sure there is anything we can really do about it. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/76 "2013-04-25T19:11:26Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > The ethnic divides in Syria make Iraq look like Japan. This could be horrible, but I’m just not sure there is anything we can really do about it. I saw some indications published that there are plans among the Alawite minority to migrate to the north of the country, consolidate and secede if Assad falls. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/77 "2013-04-25T19:13:36Z")
They should get started. Assad is going down sooner or later regardless of Western involvement. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/78 "2013-04-25T19:19:30Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > They should get started. Assad is going down sooner or later regardless of Western involvement. You a prophet? In the Middle East, you never know. It may be that he goes down. Or he hangs on, suppresses the rebellion and stays in power until he dies and his son takes over. AFAIK, and I read up a lot on this stuff, Alawites are very solidly behind Assad (the threat of a massacre is a powerful incentive), and since he and his father have been in power for quite a while, a lot of resources, military, financial, and industrial, are concentrated in Alawi hands. So I wouldn’t count them out that quickly. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/79 "2013-04-25T19:36:16Z")
You can’t do that much damage to that much of a country’s physical and social infrastructure and convert it back to a functional concern. Alawites are too few to do it on their own, in the context they’d be facing. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/80 "2013-04-25T20:33:51Z")
And the irony of all this is that before independence, there was an Alawite movement wanting an independent Alawite State centred around Lakatia, but this was objected too by their sunni landlords, who promptly manipulated them into supporting Arab nationalist causes. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316.md?page=5)