# Who Is Winning In Syria? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 30, 2012, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316 "2012-10-30T12:33:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2013, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/161 "2013-05-30T22:35:25Z")
> [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > What’s your plan for the refugees? Well, China has a shortage of women, that could solve half the problem . . . ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2013, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/162 "2013-05-31T03:39:49Z")
Not sure that giving surface to air missiles to the rebels is such a good idea. There is already a very serious Islamic presence amongst the rebels. Tricky one this one. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2013, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/163 "2013-06-05T19:35:33Z")
With the capture of another rebel-held city, it looks like Assad is growing in strength-and the rebels are fading. the question now is: will he take reprisals? I imagine he will deal harshly with rebel combatants-but what about civilians. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2013, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/164 "2013-06-06T23:32:21Z")
Good read: [**Meet the ‘Friends of Jihad’**](http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-03-050613.html) ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Quatro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bc8723/32.png) [@Mr\_Quatro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Quatro)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/165 "2013-06-07T02:52:16Z")
It is hard to understand how the present leader of Syria can still be in charge after so many casualities being reported. I for one am glad that president Obama is a fence sitter with no US boots on the ground … let them duke it out. It’s almost like the rebel’s are making money off of this war … not that they don’t want to win of course. My real fear is that the war will be over and the enemies of Israel will regroup and focus their energy and anger against Israel. This is 12 days old and they seem to be making a comeback retaking lost ground: > [@](#): > > Hezbollah Commits Full Fight to Keep Assad in Power - … > > New York Times · 12 days ago > > May 26, 2013 · “It is our battle, and we are up to it,” the leader, Hassan Nasrallah, declared in his most direct embrace yet of a fight in Syria that Hezbollah can … This is 42 minutes ago > [@](#): > > After Qusair, Syrian Army Sets Sights on Heartland > ABC News·42 minutes ago With fresh momentum from the capture of a strategic town in western Syria, President Bashar Assad’s forces have turned their sights to driving rebel fighters … ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/166 "2013-06-07T03:54:49Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Good read: [**Meet the ‘Friends of Jihad’**](http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-03-050613.html) Indeed. Especially this; > [@](#): > > Well, the “Syrian people” have spoken. Roughly 70% support the government of Bashar al-Assad. Another 20% are neutral. And only 10% are aligned with the Western-supported “rebels”, including those of the kidnapping, lung-eating, beheading jihadi kind. US intervention in Syria would be against the will of the Syrian people, the will of the American people, and the general welfare of both. No doubt the ousting of Assad by westerners would be applauded as a victory for democracy with no hint of irony. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/167 "2013-06-07T04:20:17Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > US intervention in Syria would be against the will of the Syrian people. How do you know that? ---
**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/168 "2013-06-07T06:14:54Z")
Well wasn’t there a poll conducted in a war zone by relief organizations and reported on in a fantastically researched and documented online news source? The battle in the news was not the end of the war by any stretch of the imagination. The involvement of Hezbollah is not the end of the war by any stretch of the imagination. This is going to be with us for decades. Hopefully the casualty rate will decline sharply by the end of the first decade. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/169 "2013-06-07T13:50:16Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Good read: [**Meet the ‘Friends of Jihad’**](http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-03-050613.html) > [@](#): > > As Asia Times Online has been stressing for months, the Sunni business classes in Damascus and Aleppo are either neutral or pro-Assad. And most Sunnis now regard the gangs of foreign mercenaries weaponized by Qatar and the House of Saud as way more repellent than Assad. Wait, what? How did the Saudis get into this?! ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/170 "2013-06-07T15:59:29Z")
> [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > Well wasn’t there a poll conducted in a war zone by relief organizations and reported on in a fantastically researched and documented online news source? I get the impression you’re being sarcastic, but to add to what you’re saying, I’ve seen no evidence of that nor any reason to think that Pepe Escobar is a remotely reliable source, particularly since he doesn’t even provide any sources for his claim but simply makes the rather vague statement that “the data was provided mostly by independent relief organizations working in Syria”. He never of course names the “organizations”, tells us why they’re reliable, or explains how they could possibly do a remotely credible poll in the midst of this civil war. Beyond that, if “70%” of Syria, a Sunni country that’s been brutally ruled and oppressed by a tiny Alawite minority, actually supports Assad and only 10% supports the rebels, then the rebels would have been crushed long ago. Finally, if anyone is actually stupid enough to believe that claim, I hope for their sake they’d have swallowed claims put out by the Israeli government in the 80s, with supposedly scientific studies to back them up, just a year before the Intifada, that most Palestinians on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip would prefer being ruled by the Israelis than the PLO, or claims put forth by the South African government that most South Africans preferred the Nationalist Party to the ANC. Escobar with his apologetics for the butchers of Hama(I actually laughed at his attacks on the “kidnapping, lung-eating, beheading” rebels and ignoring the kidnapping, snake eating, torturing and raping Assads") comes across as a polemicist rather than a journalist. Certainly anyone who would take that supposed data he provides with any seriousness knows nothing about Syria or the Middle East and anyone who says they do is a fool or trying to fool you. ---
**Author:** ![user\_hostile](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/user_hostile/32/474_2.png) [@user\_hostile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/user_hostile)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/171 "2013-06-07T18:33:27Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Wait, what? How did the Saudis get into this?! This is a whoosh, right? But I’ll bite. Iran = Shiite != Arab Saudi Arabia = Sunni = Arab. My illiterate take on this is a “cold war” of sorts for long-term dominance of the Middle East via sectarianism (YMMV). It would take me the rest of day to articulate even a competent post to explain the historic reasons for this–there are far smarter and more erudite posters than me who could whip out a response in a couple of minutes. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/172 "2013-06-07T18:53:40Z")
> [@user\_hostile](#): > > This is a whoosh, right? > > But I’ll bite. > > Iran = Shiite != Arab > > Saudi Arabia = Sunni = Arab. > > My illiterate take on this is a “cold war” of sorts for long-term dominance of the Middle East via sectarianism (YMMV). > > It would take me the rest of day to articulate even a competent post to explain the historic reasons for this–there are far smarter and more erudite posters than me who could whip out a response in a couple of minutes. Very very very illiterate take. As much as the whole Shia/Sunni divide is proffered up as an explanation for everything as it makes it nice and simple for westerners, the reality is a lot more complex. Iran is majority Shia true. However that is not the reason that Iran acts as it does nor why Saudi Arabia does as it does. The fact is that you have had for thousands of years two main powers in the region, Iran (in its various guises) and somebody else. Be it Romans, the Turks or the European powers. Iran is attempting to further its interests in a region it deems its own sphere of influence. The Saudis are attempting to counteract that. They are the new players of the block and the peninsula (except for a few decades immediately after the coming of Islam) has always been dominated by outsiders, the success of the last few decades is ahistorical. The Saudi wish to see compliant regimes in their region to prevent any chance of that reoccuring. At the same time Turks are finally emerging from the post Ottoman slump they have been in and are becoming increasingly assertive, rather than attempting to be European, they now wish to increase there influence. Syria is in many ways the battleground for these aims. The failures of the United States Army in Iraq as well as Afghanistan (although not in the region) has ensured that for the first time in over two centuries (almost certainly since before Napoleon showed up in Egypt), outsiders are not dominant. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Quatro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bc8723/32.png) [@Mr\_Quatro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Quatro)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/173 "2013-06-07T18:58:02Z")
> [@user\_hostile](#): > > This is a whoosh, right? > > But I’ll bite. > > Iran = Shiite != Arab > > Saudi Arabia = Sunni = Arab. > > My illiterate take on this is a “cold war” of sorts for long-term dominance of the Middle East via sectarianism (YMMV). > > It would take me the rest of day to articulate even a competent post to explain the historic reasons for this–there are far smarter and more erudite posters than me who could whip out a response in a couple of minutes. You are aware that these two countries (two factions of one religion)are enemies with each other, right? > [@](#): > > Religion is an organized collection of beliefs, cultural systems, and world views that relate humanity to the supernatural, and to spirituality Iran has plans to steal the black rock in Mecca and take it to their homeland causing one hell of a big firestorm in the process … They do not see eye to eye on anything ---
**Author:** ![Punoqllads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d2c977/32.png) [@Punoqllads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Punoqllads)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/174 "2013-06-07T19:28:27Z")
> [@Mr\_Quatro](#): > > Iran has plans to steal the black rock in Mecca and take it to their homeland causing one hell of a big firestorm in the process … Cite? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/175 "2013-06-07T19:31:43Z")
> [@user\_hostile](#): > > This is a whoosh, right? > > But I’ll bite. > > Iran = Shiite != Arab > > Saudi Arabia = Sunni = Arab. > > My illiterate take on this is a “cold war” of sorts for long-term dominance of the Middle East via sectarianism (YMMV). > > It would take me the rest of day to articulate even a competent post to explain the historic reasons for this–there are far smarter and more erudite posters than me who could whip out a response in a couple of minutes. Maybe so, but it’s news to me – and should’ve been front-page scream-type news if true – that SA is sending **mercenary soldiers** into **Syria.** And – **Qatar** is doing it **too?!** ---
**Author:** ![straight\_man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/straight_man/32/3027_2.png) [@straight\_man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/straight_man)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/176 "2013-06-07T20:02:19Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Maybe so, but it’s news to me – and should’ve been front-page scream-type news if true – that SA is sending **mercenary soldiers** into **Syria.** And – **Qatar** is doing it **too?!** It isn’t news that the Saudis and Qataris are arming the rebels, much as Russia and Iran have been arming the government and Hezbollah has been fighting alongside the government. However, I would not take this article’s word on Saudi Arabia/Qatar doing anything more. **Ibn Warraq** is right —I know nothing about this Escobar dude whatsoever, but it simply is not plausible that the rebels could still be fighting (or alive, for that matter) if they had the support of only 10% of the population, or if the government had 70% support. The author is either making stuff up or completely idiotic. His weaseling on sources suggests the former. Quasi-related note: “weaponizing” means turning an object or substance or technology that is not a weapon into a weapon. The proper word is “arming” — Escobar’s use of the term serves no other purpose than to imply that the rebels are mindless sheep being used by external powers. It’s grossly dehumanizing and offensive. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/177 "2013-06-07T20:25:59Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Maybe so, but it’s news to me – and should’ve been front-page scream-type news if true – that SA is sending **mercenary soldiers** into **Syria.** And – **Qatar** is doing it **too?!** Why is that shocking? There is no such thing as a true civil war these days. Every single one involves foreign players, either states, non-state bodies, or individuals. It’s globalization, baby. ---
**Author:** ![user\_hostile](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/user_hostile/32/474_2.png) [@user\_hostile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/user_hostile)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/178 "2013-06-07T20:46:43Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Very very very illiterate take. > > As much as the whole Shia/Sunni divide is proffered up as an explanation for everything as it makes it nice and simple for westerners, the reality is a lot more complex. Iran is majority Shia true. However that is not the reason that Iran acts as it does nor why Saudi Arabia does as it does. The fact is that you have had for thousands of years two main powers in the region, Iran (in its various guises) and somebody else. Be it Romans, the Turks or the European powers. Iran is attempting to further its interests in a region it deems its own sphere of influence. The Saudis are attempting to counteract that. They are the new players of the block and the peninsula (except for a few decades immediately after the coming of Islam) has always been dominated by outsiders, the success of the last few decades is ahistorical. The Saudi wish to see compliant regimes in their region to prevent any chance of that reoccuring. At the same time Turks are finally emerging from the post Ottoman slump they have been in and are becoming increasingly assertive, rather than attempting to be European, they now wish to increase there influence. Syria is in many ways the battleground for these aims. > The failures of the United States Army in Iraq as well as Afghanistan (although not in the region) has ensured that for the first time in over two centuries (almost certainly since before Napoleon showed up in Egypt), outsiders are not dominant. As I said, someone else can whip out a better and more cogent argument then I can. I could make the statement that the battle between the USA vs. Soviet Union was a case of capitalism vs. socialism, right? But that’s how we viewed it at the time in the west. But it was far more complex then that. I was attempting to at least partially answer **BrainGlutton** ’s question. But I was in a hurry… > [@Mr\_Quatro](#): > > You are aware that these two countries (two factions of one religion)are enemies with each other, right? Yeah, actually I’ve know that for most of my life. Went to college with both folks from both regions of the world. Worked with them throughout my career. > [@Mr\_Quatro](#): > > Iran has plans to steal the black rock in Mecca and take it to their homeland causing one hell of a big firestorm in the process … Stealing the _Al-Ħajaru l-Aswad_ would provoke a firestorm? This is absurd. Iranians aren’t stupid, they know that would be like the US stealing the British Crown jewels. It would win them nothing but animosity from all around the world, including their own citizens. > [@Mr\_Quatro](#): > > They do not see eye to eye on anything Where I use to work at, I saw plenty of Shia’s and Sunni’s (or for that matter Pakistanis and Indians, etc.) working together , eating lunch together, etc. Most of them are astute to see this as politics first and with religion (or what have you) as cover. They were, in some ways, had a more realistic view of the world, than most of my native born compatriots. Without exception, though, they have pretty strong views about American foreign policy in the M. E. (namely, for the same reason **AK84** alluded to at post–American’s don’t really understand the complexity of the region) and Israel (duh). ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/179 "2013-06-07T21:08:04Z")
I see the conflict as more like the breakup of Yugoslavia-and artificial nation-state concocted by the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. The whole ME is a creation of that conference-and the “nations” set up under Sykes-Picot have no more legitimacy than the late Yugoslavia. The whole mess is coming unglued now…and I hope we have the good sense not to get involved in its death throes. Rather, we should be preparing for the future-in which “nations” like Syria and Iraq will not exist. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2013, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316/180 "2013-06-07T21:53:11Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > I see the conflict as more like the breakup of Yugoslavia-and artificial nation-state concocted by the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. The whole ME is a creation of that conference-and the “nations” set up under Sykes-Picot have no more legitimacy than the late Yugoslavia. Well, in Syria’s case, it is hard to see what borders would be any more natural than what they’ve got now, or what viable monoethnic states might be spun off from it. (Except maybe for the Kurdish bit in the northeastern corner, which is too tiny for a viable state, but might beneficially be united with Iraqi Kurdistan.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-is-winning-in-syria/639316.md?page=10)